Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box


THE NOONER for October 15, 2012

jump to headlines

E-22

DEADLINE: Tonight is the filing deadline for the third quarter for federal committees. Following this, there will be a report due on October 25 covering the period from October 1-17. Contributions over $1,000 after October 17 must be reported within 48 hours.

PROMISE: On Friday evening, I had a great opportunity to sit down with a group of Harvard Kennedy School students to chat California politics. Folks, say what you will about the often frustrating nature of California politics and policy, but let me tell you that we certainly have some up-and-comers.

THE ASSEMBLY PLAYING FIELD

As the 2011-12 session came to a close, Assembly Speaker John Perez had 52 seats, two short of a two-thirds majority. Unlike the State Senate, redistricting didn't bring any wrapped gifts and we've known all along that under the new maps, he had a range of 47 to somewhere in the low-to-mid 50s. As we stand now, I put that range at 47-55. Surpassing 54 continues to very unlikely, and dropping a couple of seats is certainly possible.

Speaker Perez starts with 47 seats that he has a greater than 80% chance to win. Of these, 10 are in the bank at 100% with two Democrats facing each other in the runoff. The remaining range from 90% (AD11, AD28) to 99.8%, with the top of the range races where Republicans need mortal intervention or millions found in a freezer to win. A possibility, but extemely unlikely.

Then we look at the seats in which I believe Democrats have a greater than 50%, but less than 80% chance to win. This includes Gray v. Mobley in AD21, Chau v. Lin in AD49, and Medina v. Batey in AD61. I have each of these around 60% for Dems right now, but turnout, particularly Latino turnout in AD61, will be key. Thus, with these Lean Democrat seats, Assembly Democrats could get to 50 seats.

Then there are the pure toss-ups--Cooley v. Tateishi in AD08, Rios v. Salas in AD32, and Huey v. Muratsuchi in AD66. Two of these three seats (AD08 and AD66) are currently held by Democrats, with AD32 providing the pick-up opportunity as Valadao leaves the seat for a run at CD21. If Dems sweep the toss-ups, which I right now believe is unlikely, Assembly Democrats could get to 53 seats.

And, finally are the Republican seats that I believe Republicans have between a 50%-80% chance to win. These are Morrell v. Warner in AD40 and Norby v. Quick-Silva in AD65

That puts the total number of seats in play for Democrats at 55, although I think 51-53 (+1 to -1) is the most likely scenario.

Of course, turnout is going to be a big factor. While I have been quite pessimistic about turnout (and still am), there are some interesting dynamics brewing. With the help of Paul Mitchell, we've been watching the composition of new online registrations compared to traditional paper registrations. Check out the breakdown of online vs. paper from a sampling of counties that have reported:

  • Online (n=50,899): first-time registrants=73%; Permanent absentees of new registrants: 57% 
  • Traditional/paper (n=145,144): 25%; Permanent absentees of new registrants: 42%

New registrants are likely to vote, and are likelier to vote if they are permenant absentees and don't have to do anything other than cast their ballot on the couch. We also know that the online registrants are trending Democrat and a bit younger. That could give an advantage to Democrats in some of these races, although we'll have to see where we are at the close of registration on October 22.

CD15: The SF Chronicle endorses Eric Swalwell.

AD10: Democratic Party moves money to Michael Allen against fellow Democrat Marc Levine.

AMERICASHINING: The federal PAC America Shining, based out of San Francisco has invested heavily for Jay Chen against Ed Royce. Over the weekend, the group that hasn't disclosed its donors, came out in favor of other Indo- and Asian-Americans, including Republican Ricky Gill running to unseat Jerry McNerney in CD09.

CD09: Speaking of Gill, he's got to be the only congressional candidate earning IE support from both the National Right-To-Life PAC and the American College of OB-GYNs. Gill lists himself as pro-life on his website, but both his parents are OB-GYNs.

ICYMI: Campaigns Mine Political Data to Get Out Vote [Charles Duhigg @ NYT] - "The campaigns have planted software known as cookies on voters’ computers to see if they frequent evangelical or erotic Web sites for clues to their moral perspectives. Voters who visit religious Web sites might be greeted with religion-friendly messages when they return to mittromney.com or barackobama.com. The campaigns’ consultants have run experiments to determine if embarrassing someone for not voting by sending letters to their neighbors or posting their voting histories online is effective."

GOOD READ: Brown, Munger end GOP monopoly on circular firing squads [John Hrabe @ CalWatchdog]

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: I refered to a contribution from private equity exec John Scully as being from former Apple CEO John Sculley. My apologies.

 

LIKE THE NOONER?

SUBSCRIBE: For only $2.99/month or $29.99/year, you will immediately be promoted to the cool kids club with an ad-free version with lots of good karma. 

ADVERTISE: Buy this spot and reach 6,247 subscribers of the free version of The Nooner. At $250/week, that's less than a penny per reader per day.

about the Nooner | take the Nooner survey

BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - DailyNews: yes on 30, no on 38, yes on 35

PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
LA Daily News Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y
LAT Y   N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCR N   Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Spirit of Democracy Abel Maldonado (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $23,963.08 10/11/12
NARAL Pro-Choice America Tony Strickland (Oppose) Mail production $10,000.00 10/13/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Scott Peters (Oppose) Media $23,612.00 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Lois Capps (Oppose) Media $21,037.00 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Scott Peters (Oppose) Media $357,654.47 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Lois Capps (Oppose) Media $101,843.84 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Media $498,413.33 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Ami Bera (Oppose) Media $500,386.91 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Ami Bera (Oppose) Survey Research $12,500.00 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Media $19,029.44 10/12/12
National Republican Congressional Committee Jerry McNerney (Oppose) Survey Research $12,500.00 10/12/12
House Majority PAC Jeff Denham (Oppose) Direct Mail $15,680.00 10/12/12
House Majority PAC Jeff Denham (Oppose) Direct Mail $13,175.00 10/12/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Direct Mail $20,859.17 10/12/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Voter File $1,186.59 10/12/12
House Majority PAC Abel Maldonado (Oppose) Television Advertising $47,948.24 10/11/12
America Shining Jay Chen (Support) Website $260.00 10/11/12
America Shining Tammy Duckworth (Support) Website $260.00 10/11/12
America Shining Ricky Gill (Support) Website $260.00 10/11/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Radio Ad $1,323.00 10/11/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail & Postage $31,396.75 10/11/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Newsletter $3,770.50 10/09/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate card $1,901.00 10/12/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate card $1,350.00 10/10/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Victor Logachev $1,500.00 10/12/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Russian Newspaper Distribution $1,000.00 10/12/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Shallman Communications $82,941.89 10/01/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Shallman Communications $97,603.54 10/11/12
Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Russian-American Weekly $450.00 10/01/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $10,647.43 10/13/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $10,647.43 10/12/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Postage $7,222.263 10/13/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $7,722.14 10/12/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jeff Denham (Oppose) Media Production $7,544.53 10/12/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Production $16,603.59 10/12/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Production $16,358.96 10/12/12
Communications Workers of America Working Voices Dan Lungren (Oppose) Targeted Internet Ads $30,000.00 10/12/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) TV or Cable Airtime and Production $100,000.00 10/10/12
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Literature and Mailings $51,765.43 10/10/12
National Right to Life PAC Dan Lungren (Support) Mailing $5,301.37 10/10/12
National Right to Life PAC Ricky Gill (Support) Mailing $4,400.99 10/10/12
National Right to Life PAC Jeff Denham (Support) Mailing $6,801.26 10/10/12
National Right to Life PAC Tony Strickland (Support) Mailing $5,907.85 10/10/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Peter Tateishi (Support) $27,627 10/13/2012 10/14/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $11,278 10/13/2012 10/14/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Raul Bocanegra (Oppose) $12,330 10/13/2012 10/14/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California William Batey (Support) $19,928 10/13/2012 10/14/2012
Berkeley Firefighters Association Local 1227 Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $1,101 10/11/2012 10/13/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Jerry Hill (Support) $23,613 10/13/2012 10/13/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $3,028 10/13/2012 10/13/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $3,413 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $564 10/02/2012 10/13/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $24,613 10/13/2012 10/13/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Raul Bocanegra (Oppose) $13,889 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $8,356 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jose J. Medina (i) (Support) $14,406 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Peter Tateishi (i) (Oppose) $55,755 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Berryhill (i) (Oppose) $75,547 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Genetically Engineered Foods, Mandatory Labeling, (Support) $1,823 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Temporary Taxes To Fund Education, Guaranteed Loca (Support) $5,337 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Tom Ammiano (Support) $2,746 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Prohibits Political Contribuitons By Payroll Deduc (Oppose) $5,337 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Phil Ting (Support) $2,746 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Death Penalty Repeal, Initiative Statute (Support) $1,823 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee Mark Leno (Support) $2,746 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Small Business Action Committee Independent Expenditure Pac Bill Berryhill (Support) $8,284 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Small Business Action Committee Independent Expenditure Pac Todd Zink (Support) $3,836 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $31,359 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Beth Gaines (Support) $18,789 10/12/2012 10/13/2012
Temecula Valley Educators Association Political Action Committee Political Contributions By Payroll Deductions. Con (Oppose) $1,024 09/27/2012 10/13/2012
Temecula Valley Educators Association Political Action Committee Temporary Taxes To Fund Education Guarnteed Local (Support) $1,024 09/27/2012 10/13/2012
Allen And Oppose Levine For State Assembly In 2012 Sponsored By Labor Organizations, Working Families Against Low Wage Jobs A Committee To Support Michael Allen (Support) $16,833 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Allen And Oppose Levine For State Assembly In 2012 Sponsored By Labor Organizations, Working Families Against Low Wage Jobs A Committee To Support Marc Levine (Oppose) $16,833 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Raul Bocanegra (Support) $39,986 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Raul Bocanegra (Support) $54,487 10/03/2012 10/12/2012
California Nurses Association Pac (cna-pac) Richard Alarcon (i) (Support) $18,262 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Beth Gaines (Support) $18,789 10/10/2012 10/12/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Joe Baca (Oppose) $34,767 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability And Responsibility, Sponsored By Dentists, Physicians, Health Care Providers, Realtors, School Employees And Construction Trades Organizations Craig Huey (i) (Oppose) $196,238 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Adam Gray (Support) $24,071 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $1,794 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $40,200 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Jose Medina (Oppose) $62,530 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Ken Cooley (i) (Support) $33,247 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Rudy Salas (Support) $15,575 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Phil Ting (Support) $25,460 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jeff Miller (Support) $25,135 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Richard Bloom (Support) $56,911 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
International Longshore And Warehouse Union Local 13 Pac Stop The Special Exeptions Act (Oppose) $92,016 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Peter Tateishi (Support) $28,000 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $50,556 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Edwin Chau (Oppose) $41,067 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $5,787 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jose J. Medina (i) (Support) $9,767 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jose J. Medina (i) (Support) $31,936 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard D. Roth (i) (Support) $9,767 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Bill Berryhill (i) (Oppose) $75,547 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Cathleen Galgiani (i) (Support) $39,375 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Al Muratsuchi (Support) $2,500 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Fran Pavley (Support) $5,000 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
Planned Parenthood Advocacy Project Los Angeles County Action Fund Craig Huey (Oppose) $2,500 10/12/2012 10/12/2012
San Francisco Rising Alliance Committee Temporary Taxes To Fund Education. Guaranteed Loc (Support) $1,090 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Southern California District Council Of Laborers Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $1,059 09/13/2012 10/12/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $29,259 10/11/2012 10/12/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California William Batey (Support) $19,384 10/11/2012 10/12/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Assessing The Latest Workers' Compensation Overhaul
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Ostensibly, one of the two or three most important acts of the 2012 legislative session was an overhaul of the huge and hugely complex system that provides medical care and cash benefits to workers with job-related illnesses and injuries.

School Official Targeted Special Education Program To Cut Costs
Trey Bundy @
baycitizen.org
A San Francisco Unified School District administrator urged teachers to re-evaluate whether to offer summer school to special education students as a way to cut costs, a move that special education teachers and attorneys say violates federal regulations.

Springsteen Ends Political Retirement For Obama
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
Springsteen ends political retirement for Obama

Tenuous Water Supply Shrinks This Year At Valley Wildlife Refuges
Matt Weiser @
sacbee.com
At the Sutter National Wildlife Refuge near Yuba City, wetlands that should be teeming with mallards, canvasbacks, geese and pelicans are instead parched and barren.

Education cuts at stake in tax battle
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Passage of Gov. Brown's Prop. 30 would spare schools and universities. But a Prop. 38 victory would trigger big reductions.

San Jose Police Department Inspired War Of Words In City Council Race Between Pension Reformers And Labor
contracostatimes.com
The City Council race in San Joses Evergreen Valley was already hot between pension reformer Rose Herrera and her police-backed challenger, but her "playbook" campaign flier sent the contest past the boiling point Sunday afternoon.

Judges And Pensions: Classic Conflict Of Interest
calpensions.com
The public employees most lightly touched by a pension reform signed by Gov. Brown last month are the judges, whose court rulings on public pensions can affect their own pensions and retirement income.

Companies bail out from Prop. 39 fight over corporate 'loophole'
Steven Harmon @
mercurynews.com
Out-of-state businesses forego campaign against Proposition 39, an initiative that proponents say would close a tax loophole and provide California $1 billion a year. Some say they were intimidated by a wealthy activist's promise to hurt their brand.

Prop. 34: Will Voters Abolish California's Death Penalty?
RICHARD K. De ATLEY @
pe.com
Voters in November will be asked if they want to get rid of California’s death penalty, currently imposed on 726 inmates — 112 of them from Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Changing corporate tax rules
sacbee.com
Ever since a 2009 budget compromise changed how corporations calculate their taxes, business advocates and Democrats have feuded in the Capitol over tightening that law.

Supreme Court Balance Hangs On Election - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Today

Gary Johnson Libertarian Candidate Worries Republicans
nytimes.com
Concerned that the Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson could hurt the Romney campaign, Republicans across the country have been working to keep him off the ballot.

Romney Not Taking In ‘the View’ – Cnn Political Ticker - Cnn.com Blogs
politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com
Barbara Walters, the show's creator and co-host, announced the news Monday.

Dan Walters Daily
Dan Smith @
blogs.sacbee.com
Dan notes that political campaigns are now pitching to a steadily declining audience of voters.

BART Reopens Bidding On Millbrae Land
Zusha Elinson @
sfgate.com
BART has reopened the bidding to develop valuable real estate near its Millbrae Station, leading to calls for a public hearing on negotiations that have been shrouded in secrecy and marred by accusations of favoritism.

FiveThirtyEight: In Maine, Independent Streak Complicates Political Landscape
MICAH COHEN @
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
Although Maine, over all, is reliably Democratic in presidential elections, it apportions its electoral votes by Congressional district, and the Second District is the more Republican-leaning of the two.

Presidential Contest Tight Nationally Ahead Of Second Debate
washingtonpost.com
On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Undecided on your votes? U-T Voter Guide
utsandiego.com
U-T San Diego's handy guide offers overviews of the top races and the state propositions and candidate statements for local city and county races.

Tesla Receives $10 Million From State Energy Commission For Electric Auto Manufacturing
contracostatimes.com
FREMONT -- The California Energy Commission voted this week to grant $10 million to Tesla Motors, Inc., to help produce an electric-powered vehicle at its Fremont plant.

Romney Distances Himself From Bush-era Neoconservatives
Paul Richter, Washington Bureau @
latimes.com
Aides say Mitt Romney is aiming for a foreign policy that would resemble President Reagan's. He wants to assert U.S. leadership but 'with a more cautious view of where and when we use force.'

Poll Watch: Two trends shaping the presidential election
David Lauter @
latimes.com
As a flurry of recent polls confirms, the presidential race has returned to the situation that prevailed before the party conventions – nearly a dead heat – as Mitt Romney’s strong performance in the first debate with President Obama largely erased the advantage the incumbent built up during September.

Phone Smuggling Case Costs 20 California Prison Workers Their Jobs
Jack Dolan @
latimes.com
Most are accused of taking the cellphones in for cash, while others are suspected of doing it for love, a watchdog agency report says.

The Buzz: Lifeguard pensions a campaign issue in San Diego-area race
sacbee.com
Lifeguards in Oceanside get the same retirement package as cops – a fact that has surfaced in an Assembly race featuring two Republicans.

Arlen Specter dies at 82; longtime senator was a political maverick
Timothy M. Phelps @
latimes.com
Specter represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate for more than 30 years but perhaps was best known for his work in the Supreme Court nomination process.