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THE NOONER for October 12, 2012

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E-25

Good morning with the last Nooner from Boston. It's a particularly difficult morning with a 7:30am meeting and following a night that had the room next door engaging in the sexy dance for three hours last night.

LINK DU JOUR: Brad Sherman goes all Cam Brady on Howard Berman at Pierce College debate, leading sheriff's deputy to step between them.

I screwed up the CBRT poll results for Prop. 32, as I gave you the latest polling average (6 weighted polls) rather than the latest CBRT results.

I didn't have time to analyze the CBRT results yesterday, but it's clear that the latest results appear much more consistent with other polls than the 9/26 poll, which had most ballot measures at least 5% higher than conventional wisdom. As I wrote before, that makes me happy, as I want to find the CBRT methodology to be working.

CBRT/PEPPERDINE 

  • Proposition 30 (governor's tax measure): 49.5% yes, 41.7% no, 8.8% undecided
  • Proposition 31 (CAFWD budget reform): 37.6% yes, 37.8% no, 31.3% undecided
  • Proposition 32 (campaign finance): 51.4% yes, 38.3% no, 10.3% undecided
  • Proposition 33 (auto insurance): 54.0% yes, 34.3% no, 11.7% undecided
  • Proposition 34 (death penalty repeal): 43.9% yes, 48.1% no, 9.0% undecided
  • Proposition 35 (human trafficking): 79.7% yes, 12.3% no, 8.0% undecided
  • Proposition 36 (3-strikes revision): 72.0% yes, 17.1% no, 10.9% undecided
  • Proposition 37 (food labeling): 48.3% yes, 40.2% no, 10.9% undecided
  • Proposition 38 (Munger's tax measure): 41.9% yes, 45.9% no, 11.5% undecided
  • Proposition 39 (clean energy tax): 60.6% yes, 25.1% no, 14.4% undecided
  • Proposition 40 (State Senate redistricting-uphold maps): 44.2% yes, 26.1 no, 29.6% undecided

Favorable/Unfavorable:

  • Barack Obama: 55.2%-42.2%
  • Jerry Brown: 42.0%-47.6%
  • State Legislature: 23.2%-67.7%

California right track/wrong track: 33%-67% 

PROP30: Obama advisor complicates Jerrry Brown's tax campaign [Michael J. Mishak @ LAT]

$$$: $2.3m comes in against Prop 30, with funding from the Small Business Action Committee, including $500,000 from former Apple CEO John Scully.

AROUNDTHECAPITOL POLLING AVERAGES

Updated: October 11, 2012
Methodology: Polls are weighted on recency and the methodology used in conducting the poll. The following polls are currently in the polling average:

  • CBRT/Pepperdine
  • Field Poll
  • LAT/USC/Dornsife
  • Public Policy Institute of California
  • Survey USA (Prop 30 only)

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 51.1% (-2.4%)
No: 38.3%
Undecided: 10.4%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 30.7% (+0.3%)
No: 37.8%%
Undecided: 31.3%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.2% (-0.0%)
No: 42.4%
Undecided: 16.7%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.8% (-1.0%)
No: 33.6%
Undecided: 23.1%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.9% (-1.0%)
No: 44.9%
Undecided: 11.1%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 79.7% (-2.5%)
No: 12.3%
Undecided: 8.0%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 71.5% (-0.4%)
No: 17.3%
Undecided: 10.9%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 56.2% (-5.2%)%
No: 32.7%
Undecided: 10.9%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.1% (-0.3%)
No: 45.5%
Undecided: 15.7%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.2% (-0.5%)
No: 30.7%
Undecided: 15.1%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.0%)
No: 25.8%
Undecided: 30.0%

 

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BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - PE: yes on 32; DailyNews: yes on 32, 34

PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
LA Daily News   Y Y N Y   Y N   N Y
LAT Y   N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCR N   Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
SEIU COPE Jose Hernandez (Support) Radio Advertising & Production $145,912.50 10/09/12
SEIU COPE Jeff Denham (Support) Radio Advertising & Production $145,912.50 10/09/12
SEIU COPE Tony Strickland (Oppose) TV Advertising Production $6,957.02 10/09/12
House Majority PAC Jeff Denham (Oppose) Direct Mail $13,175.00 10/09/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Media Production Costs $6,957.02 10/09/12
House Majority PAC Tony Strickland (Oppose) Television Advertising $117,325.14 10/09/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $7,704.88 10/09/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $10,626.55 10/09/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $7,704.88 10/09/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Television Ad $4,801.20 10/10/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad (3) $1,116.82 10/10/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Professional Services $15,000.00 10/09/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Campaign Consultants $4,575.00 10/09/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Professional Services $4,575.00 10/09/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) TV or Cable Airtime and Production $295,000.00 10/09/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Polling and Survey Research $19.200.00 10/09/12
Spirit of Democracy America Abel Maldonado (Support) Polling and Survey Research $19,750.00 10/09/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Scott Peters (Oppose) Radio Advertising $38,596.00 10/11/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Scott Peters (Oppose) Radio Advertising Production $2,517.00 10/11/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Scott Peters (Oppose) Mailing and Postage $21,662.00 10/11/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) No On Propositon 32 (Oppose) $884 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Yes On Proposition 40 (Support) $103 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Yes On Proposition 30 (Support) $885 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) No On Propositon 31 (Oppose) $103 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
Berkeley Firefighters Association Local 1227 Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $1,254 10/09/2012 10/11/2012
California Farm Bureau Fund To Protect The Family Farm (farm Pac) Brian Dahle (Support) $57,000 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Jeff Miller (Support) $33,020 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Joe Baca (Oppose) $34,767 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability And Responsibility, Sponsored By Dentists, Physicians, Health Care Providers, Realtors, School Employees And Construction Trades Organizations Jimmy Gomez (Support) $44,785 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Adam Gray (Support) $20,000 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Jerry Hill (Support) $23,899 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $1,844 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Citizens For California Reform Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $24,613 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Ken Cooley (Oppose) $38,905 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor Afl-cio Council On Political Education Raul Bocanegra (Oppose) $12,330 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Jordan Brandman (Support) $6,337 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Steve Chavez Lodge (Support) $6,337 10/11/2012 10/11/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard D. Roth (i) (Support) $421 10/08/2012 10/11/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Peter Tateishi (i) (Oppose) $111,700 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jose J. Medina (i) (Support) $421 10/08/2012 10/11/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Cathleen Galgiani (i) (Support) $765 10/09/2012 10/11/2012
Seiu - United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434 State Pac Temp Taxes To Fund Educ. Guranteed Local Pub. Sfty (Support) $6,983 10/09/2012 10/11/2012
Seiu - United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434 State Pac Prohibits Pol. Contrib. By Payroll Deductions (Oppose) $35,378 10/04/2012 10/11/2012
Seiu - United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434 State Pac Prohibits Pol. Contrib. By Payroll Deductions (Oppose) $6,983 10/09/2012 10/11/2012
Sierra Pacific Industries & Affiliate Wetsel Oviatt Lumber Co. Rick Bosetti (Support) $37,232 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $41,987 10/10/2012 10/11/2012
Support Our Anaheim Resort Area Pac (soar Pac) Tom Daly (Support) $6,824 10/10/2012 10/11/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Gov. Jerry Brown's Budget Plans Threatened By A Determined Molly Munger
Kevin Yamamura @
sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown hoped a mix of politicking and good fortune would deter negative ads against his tax initiative in the campaign's final weeks. His luck expired in the last few days.

Molly Munger Says Jerry Brown Using 'impostor Strategy' To Win Votes
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Tax proponent Molly Munger said Thursday she plans to fund her Proposition 38 efforts up to Election Day and has no reason to back away from an ad critical of Gov. Jerry Brown's tax campaign.

Pugno seeks campaign funds for his campaign and Prop. 8 court battle
Jim Sanders @
sacbee.com
Assembly candidate Andy Pugno made supporters an offer Thursday that he hopes they can't refuse: For every dollar donated to his debt-ridden campaign this week, an equal amount will be sent to the group defending Proposition 8, the state's same-sex marriage law, in its fight at the U.S. Supreme Court.

Dollars to Andy Pugno this week are bucks to fight gay marriage
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Assembly candidate Andy Pugno made supporters an offer today that he hopes they can't refuse: For every dollar donated to his debt-ridden campaign this week, an equal amount will be sent to the group defending Proposition 8, the state's same-sex marriage law, in its fight at the U.S. Supreme Court.

California Legislators Rarely Vote Against Party Line - Data Center - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
It's usually easy to predict how particular California state legislators will vote on a bill: 99 percent of the time, Democrats vote the same way as the majority of their party; 94 percent of the time, Republicans vote the same way as the majority of their party, according to a Bee review of voting records from the 2011-2012 legislative session.

Former Mayor Richard Riordan Says He'll Launch His Pension Reform Initiative Friday
Rick Orlov @
dailynews.com
Former Mayor Richard Riordan plans to file his own pension reform initiative Friday and begin collecting signatures to qualify the measure for next May's mayoral runoff election.

Villaraigosa Backs L.A. Councilman Alarcon In Tough Assembly Race
Catherine Saillant @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is endorsing City Councilman Richard Alarcon's bid to win a seat in the Assembly, calling his longtime political ally and friend a "fierce champion for the residents of the Northeast San Fernando Valley."

Support Drops For Measure On Labeling Of Genetically Modified Food
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- Support among likely voters has plummeted for Proposition 37, an initiative to require labels on foods with genetically engineered ingredients, a new poll shows.

CSU Professor Tangles With John And Ken On Prop. 30
latimesblogs.latimes.com
It is not clear whether Cal State Fresno professor Marn Cha knew what he was getting into when he agreed to be a guest on the conservative John and Ken Show on KFI-AM radio Wednesday. But within minutes on air he would find himself getting yelled at.

Santa Clara County Tries Again For A Sales Tax
Local @
mercurynews.com
Six years after county voters said no to a half-cent sales tax hike, the county is back on the ballot with a more modest, eighth-cent request they say is needed to fund health and safety programs but critics argue will only pay down generous pension costs.

Autism activism led Elizabeth Emken to become GOP Senate candidate
Lee Romney @
latimes.com
Elizabeth Emken, running against Sen. Dianne Feinstein, began by lobbying for autism research. She opposes the healthcare law and backs a tax overhaul, deficit reduction and Arctic drilling.

PTA Leader Urges Peace Summit Between Jerry Brown, Molly Munger
Chris Megarian @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The feud between Gov. Jerry Brown and millionaire lawyer Molly Munger took another twist Thursday night, as one of Munger's closest allies called for a truce between the two sides. Carol Kocivar, president of the California State PTA, said Brown...

Experts' views about Obama and Romney on education
Howard Blume @
latimes.com
The following are edited excerpts from telephone interviews and email exchanges with leading education analysts, writers and researchers regarding the policies and positions of the presidential candidates.

L.A. Councilman Bill Rosendahl Backs Wendy Greuel For Mayor
David Zahniser @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Two days after he dumped on an array of politicians across the country, departing Los Angeles City Councilman Bill Rosendahl announced Thursday that there is at least one elected official he still likes: City Controller Wendy Greuel.

Brown's Calif. Tax Initiative Hit From Both Sides - California State Wire - Fresnobee.com
JULIET WILLIAMS @
fresnobee.com
You're in the California - California State Wire section

Ad Watch: Munger ad attacking Ken Cooley on taxes somewhat misleading
sacbee.com
Democratic Assembly candidate Ken Cooley was blasted this week as a big supporter of tax increases in a TV ad by a group backing his Republican opponent, Peter Tateishi. The 30-second ad is running on multiple broadcast channels in the 8th Assembly District, which stretches from Citrus Heights to the Sacramento County line south of Wilton.

Campaign committee violations alleged in bitter San Jose City Council race
Tracy Seipel @
mercurynews.com
The president of the San Jose Police Officers' Association on Thursday filed a complaint with the state's political watchdog commission alleging technical violations of campaign laws governing the transfer of money between political committees that involves the District 8 City Council race.

Report: Half Of Schools Meet State Goal
Jill Tucker @
sfgate.com
California schools have been weighed. They have been measured. And, depending on whom you ask, they have been found wanting or are doing really well.