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THE NOONER for October 11, 2012
It is another absurdly early morning following that A's bottom-of-the-ninth victory last night. Can the Giants and A's both pull it off today? Oh, yeah, and there's that veep debate tonight, and a 7:30am meeting tomorrow. As an aside, you wouldn't believe the number of Scott Brown/Elizabeth Warren ads here.
SURVEYUSA POLL: SurveyUSA is out with a new California poll on Obama, Feinstein/Emkin, and several ballot measures. Some polling analysts are cautious with SurveyUSA's methodology, which uses an automated telephone and web polling system, calling both landlines and cells. To keep people on the line, they also abridge their questions on most ballot measures. For that reason, I'm only including the Prop. 30 result in my polling averages, as it is the only measure that a full summary was given to respondents. I do weight SurveyUSA less than conventional polls.
In an example of the unpredictability of SurveyUSA's methodology, look at the Proposition 33 undecided--71%, compared to 10.9% when given the title and summary in the CBRT poll.
PROP 30 BY AGE:
Only 46% of Hispanic voters say "yes" on Prop 30, which is a drop from 67% in the July Field Poll. Does anyone know if the governor's campaign is running Spanish-language ads?
CBRT/Pepperdine also came out today with a new poll:
Updated: October 11, 2012
Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
Yes: 51.1% (-2.4%)
Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
MUNGER GAMES: The SacBee uses the murder-suicide description in talking about Molly's campaign against Prop. 30, while the LAT talks about the "worst-case scenario" for schools caused by the bro-sis tag team.
PROP 30: UTSD calls the governor's Prop. 30 ads "stunningly dishonest."
CD26: Mark McKinnon's No Labels comes out in support of Julia Brownley.
AD39: Antonio Villaraigosa endorses Richard Alarcon against Raul Bocanegra.
$$$: The laundromat is spinning all around the state, with big party money flowing to Berryhill, Pavley, Roth, Zink, Cooley and Medina.
OHIO: From NBC's First Read: "Our new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also provides two explanations why Obama maintains his lead in the Buckeye State. One is early voting. According to the survey, nearly 1 in 5 respondents have already voted in Ohio, and Obama is winning them by a 63%-37% margin; among those who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney is leading, 52%-42%."
BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - PE: yes on 32; DailyNews: yes on 32, 34
Molly Munger Opens Separate Committee To Attack Prop. 30
Kevin Yamamura @ blogs.sacbee.com
Wealthy attorney Molly Munger, who wants voters to raise income taxes for education and state budget relief in Proposition 38, has formed a new committee for the express purpose of critiquing rival tax initiative Proposition 30.
Obama Advisor Complicates Gov. Jerry Brown's Tax Campaign
Forget Obama vs. Romney. The biggest political match-up in California this November may be between the president and Gov. Jerry Brown -- or at least their respective campaigns. In one corner is Brown, who is working to pass a November...
Prop. 39 Would End Tax Giveaway, Raise $1 Billion For California
George Skelton @ latimes.com
The initiative would do away with an incentive for out-of-state corporations not to invest in California.
When Unions Lose, It's Not Always 'game Over' - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
Union workers hold signs during a rally in San Francisco.
Santa Clara County Tries Again For A Sales Tax
Six years after county voters said no to a half-cent sales tax hike, the county is back on the ballot with a more modest, eighth-cent request they say is needed to fund health and safety programs but critics argue will only pay down generous pension costs.
California Legislative Races Heavily Targeted By Independent Campaigns
Independent campaigns spending big for legislative candidates
When unions lose, it's not always 'game over'
Jon Ortiz @ sacbee.com
California unions are fighting for their life to defeat a Nov. 6 ballot measure that would choke off their political cash, but in other states where labor has lost similar fights, they haven't just rolled over and died.
This Election, Two Profoundly Different Visions for Health Care
When Americans go to the polls next month they will cast a vote not just for president but for one of two profoundly different visions for the future of the countryâÂÂs health care system.
Prop. 32 debate pits GOP strategist vs. journalist; campaigns weigh in
Jon Ortiz @ blogs.sacbee.com
Political arguments break out on Twitter all the time. On Tuesday, Proposition 32 was a hot topic. Here are some bits of the debate.
State Senate Panel To Probe Refineries, Gas Prices
By Josh Richman Wednesday, October 10th, 2012 at 10:11 am in Barbara Boxer, California State Senate, economy, energy, Mark Leno, U.S. Senate.
Obama Fights Erosion Of Female Voters With Attacks On Romney Over Abortion - The Hill - Covering Congress, Politics, Political Campaigns And Capitol Hill | Thehill.com
Ian Swanson @ thehill.com
Is Ann Romney Saving Her Husband’s Campaign? She Just Might Be.
Chris Cillizza @ washingtonpost.com
There’s a bit of an Ann Romney boomlet happening in the presidential campaign at the moment.
California's Renewable-energy Plans May Hinge On Presidential Race
Evan Halper @ latimes.com
Players big and small in the state's rapidly growing industry worry a Romney win will strip them of federal subsidies they say are key to clean energy's future.
Yes on C campaign spends big in push to get marijuana dispensaries into Palo Alto
Jason Green @ mercurynews.com
The group behind a measure that would allow up to three medical marijuana dispensaries to open in Palo Alto may not be flush with campaign contributions, but that isn't stopping it from spending hand over fist as the Nov. 6 election looms.
Health Officials Warn Of Elevated Plague Risk In Lake Tahoe Basin - Folsom/el Dorado News - The Sacramento Bee
El Dorado County environmental health officials are urging residents and visitors to take precautions after a chipmunk found in the Lake Tahoe Basin last week tested presumptive positive for the bacteria that causes the plague.
Lausd Approves One-year Contract For Superintendent John Deasy - La Daily News
The Los Angeles Unified school board voted 6-0 late Tuesday to grant a one-year contract extension to Superintendent John Deasy.
Berman, Sherman Mix It Up -- Again -- In Congressional Race Forum
Democratic Reps. Brad Sherman of Sherman Oaks and Howard Berman of Valley Village duked it out in another candidates forum Wednesday. The two are competing for the same San Fernando Valley congressional district seat in the Nov. 6 election.
Oakland Sues Feds Over Pot Dispensary
Matthai Kuruvila @ sfgate.com
The city of Oakland took the unusual step Wednesday of filing a suit in an attempt to stop the federal government from seizing and closing down one of the largest medical marijuana dispensaries in the city.
At This Auction, Bidders Get Deals, California Gets Revenue - Our Region - The Sacramento Bee
Jerry Woutat, left, of Sacramento and other prospective bidders inspect old state cars and trucks in a lot in Davis. The first such auction, held in August, raised almost $700,000 in revenue for the state. The tally for the latest auction was not available Wednesday.
Independent spending on CA legislative races nears $5 million
Torey Van Oot @ blogs.sacbee.com
Independent groups are dropping big bucks to influence dozens of state legislative races, spending more than $4.8 million on television ads, mail pieces and other campaign activities since the beginning of August.
Seton Medical Center, affiliate donate almost $900,000 to San Mateo County's Measure A sales tax hike campaign
Bonnie Eslinger @ mercurynews.com
While San Mateo County officials maintain they have yet to decide how to distribute $60 million a year if the Measure A half-cent sales tax increase passes on Nov. 6, Seton Medical Center and its parent group have donated $885,868 to the campaign.