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THE NOONER for October 11, 2012

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E-26

It is another absurdly early morning following that A's bottom-of-the-ninth victory last night. Can the Giants and A's both pull it off today? Oh, yeah, and there's that veep debate tonight, and a 7:30am meeting tomorrow. As an aside, you wouldn't believe the number of Scott Brown/Elizabeth Warren ads here.

SURVEYUSA POLL: SurveyUSA is out with a new California poll on Obama, Feinstein/Emkin, and several ballot measures. Some polling analysts are cautious with SurveyUSA's methodology, which uses an automated telephone and web polling system, calling both landlines and cells. To keep people on the line, they also abridge their questions on most ballot measures. For that reason, I'm only including the Prop. 30 result in my polling averages, as it is the only measure that a full summary was given to respondents. I do weight SurveyUSA less than conventional polls.

In an example of the unpredictability of SurveyUSA's methodology, look at the Proposition 33 undecided--71%, compared to 10.9% when given the title and summary in the CBRT poll.

  • Presidential: Obama 53%, Romney 39%, Other 4%, Undecided 4%
  • US Senate: Feinstein: 54%, Emkin 35%, Undecided 10%
  • Proposition 30 (governor's tax measure): 45% yes, 39% no, 16% undecided
  • Proposition 33 (auto insurance): 13% yes, 16% no, 71% undecided
  • Proposition 34 (death penalty repeal): 32% yes, 48% no, 20% undecided
  • Proposition 36 (3-strikes revision): 44% yes, 22% no, 34% undecided
  • Proposition 37 (food labeling): 39% yes, 30% no, 31% undecided

[n=539 likely, telephone/web automated, October 7-9, 2012, +/- 4.3%]

PROP 30 BY AGE:

  • 18-34: 58%
  • 35-49: 40%
  • 50-64: 43%
  • 65+: 33%

Only 46% of Hispanic voters say "yes" on Prop 30, which is a drop from 67% in the July Field Poll. Does anyone know if the governor's campaign is running Spanish-language ads?

CBRT/Pepperdine also came out today with a new poll:

  • Proposition 30 (governor's tax measure): 49.5% yes, 41.7% no, 8.8% undecided
  • Proposition 31 (CAFWD budget reform): 37.6% yes, 37.8% no, 31.3% undecided
  • Proposition 32 (campaign finance): 44.2% yes, 42.4% no, 16.7% undecided
  • Proposition 33 (auto insurance): 54.0% yes, 34.3% no, 11.7% undecided
  • Proposition 34 (death penalty repeal): 43.9% yes, 48.1% no, 9.0% undecided
  • Proposition 35 (human trafficking): 79.7% yes, 12.3% no, 8.0% undecided
  • Proposition 36 (3-strikes revision): 72.0% yes, 17.1% no, 10.9% undecided
  • Proposition 37 (food labeling): 48.3% yes, 40.2% no, 10.9% undecided
  • Proposition 38 (Munger's tax measure): 41.9% yes, 45.9% no, 11.5% undecided
  • Proposition 39 (clean energy tax): 60.6% yes, 25.1% no, 14.4% undecided
  • Proposition 40 (State Senate redistricting-uphold maps): 44.2% yes, 26.1 no, 29.6% undecided

AROUNDTHECAPITOL POLLING AVERAGES

Updated: October 11, 2012
Methodology: Polls are weighted on recency and the methodology used in conducting the poll. The following polls are currently in the polling average:

  • CBRT/Pepperdine
  • Field Poll
  • LAT/USC/Dornsife
  • Public Policy Institute of California
  • Survey USA (Prop 30 only)

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 51.1% (-2.4%)
No: 38.3%
Undecided: 10.4%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 30.7% (+0.3%)
No: 37.8%%
Undecided: 31.3%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.2% (-0.0%)
No: 42.4%
Undecided: 16.7%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.8% (-1.0%)
No: 33.6%
Undecided: 23.1%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.9% (-1.0%)
No: 44.9%
Undecided: 11.1%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 79.7% (-2.5%)
No: 12.3%
Undecided: 8.0%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 71.5% (-0.4%)
No: 17.3%
Undecided: 10.9%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 56.2% (-5.2%)%
No: 32.7%
Undecided: 10.9%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.1% (-0.3%)
No: 45.5%
Undecided: 15.7%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.2% (-0.5%)
No: 30.7%
Undecided: 15.1%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.0%)
No: 25.8%
Undecided: 30.0%

MUNGER GAMES: The SacBee uses the murder-suicide description in talking about Molly's campaign against Prop. 30, while the LAT talks about the "worst-case scenario" for schools caused by the bro-sis tag team.

PROP 30: UTSD calls the governor's Prop. 30 ads "stunningly dishonest."

CD26: Mark McKinnon's No Labels comes out in support of Julia Brownley.

CD30: The -ermans debate again.

CD52: Bilbray and Peters face off for the first time.

AD39: Antonio Villaraigosa endorses Richard Alarcon against Raul Bocanegra.

$$$: The laundromat is spinning all around the state, with big party money flowing to Berryhill, Pavley, Roth, Zink, Cooley and Medina.

OHIO: From NBC's First Read: "Our new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also provides two explanations why Obama maintains his lead in the Buckeye State. One is early voting. According to the survey, nearly 1 in 5 respondents have already voted in Ohio, and Obama is winning them by a 63%-37% margin; among those who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney is leading, 52%-42%."

 

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BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - PE: yes on 32; DailyNews: yes on 32, 34

PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
LA Daily News   Y Y N Y   Y N   N Y
LAT Y   N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCR N   Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N Y N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $27,331.41 10/08/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Mailer $9,110.47 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee Ricky Gill (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee Brian Whelan (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee Dan Lungren (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee Tony Strickland (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee David Valadao (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee Doug LaMalfa (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
National Right to Life Political Action Committee Jeff Denham (Support) Newspaper Ad $14.19 10/08/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $220.46 10/09/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $234.82 10/09/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Television Ad $88,740.00 10/09/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad $600.00 10/09/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) No On Propositon 31 (Oppose) $474 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) No On Propositon 32 (Oppose) $474 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Yes On Proposition 40 (Support) $474 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
American Federation Of Teachers Guild, Local 1931 San Diego And Grossmont Cuyamaca Community Colleges Committee On Political Education (aka: Aft Guild, Local 1931 - C.o.p.e) Yes On Proposition 30 (Support) $474 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Fran Pavley (i) (Support) $64,366 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Todd Zink (i) (Oppose) $120,261 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $57,207 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Beth Gaines (Support) $35,906 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Rico Oller (Oppose) $232,379 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Frank Bigelow (Support) $68,250 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Jerry Hill (Support) $23,899 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $1,794 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Cooley For Assembly 2012, Local Businesses And Employees Supporting Ken Ken Cooley (i) (Support) $39,515 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (Support) $24,824 10/05/2012 10/10/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jennifer Ong (Support) $26,414 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (Support) $14,614 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jennifer Ong (Support) $24,824 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca Jr. (Support) $14,614 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
Courage Campaign Issues Committee Prop. 32 - Prohibits Political Contributions By Pa (Oppose) $8,200 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Ray Grangoff (Support) $3,166 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Mark Murphy (Support) $3,166 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
Octaxpac, Sponsored By The Orange County Taxpayers Association Tita Smith (Support) $3,166 10/10/2012 10/10/2012
Painters And Allied Trades District Council No. 36 Political Action Committee Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $40,000 10/07/2012 10/10/2012
Perea Reviving Jobs And The Economy Ballot Measure Committee Human Trafficking. Penalties. Initiative Statute. (Support) $25,895 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Small Business Action Committee Independent Expenditure Pac Carl Demaio (Support) $16,959 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Peter Tateishi (Support) $278,850 10/09/2012 10/10/2012
United Food And Commercial Workers Local 1428 Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Con (Oppose) $1,077 10/09/2012 10/10/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Molly Munger Opens Separate Committee To Attack Prop. 30
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Wealthy attorney Molly Munger, who wants voters to raise income taxes for education and state budget relief in Proposition 38, has formed a new committee for the express purpose of critiquing rival tax initiative Proposition 30.

Obama Advisor Complicates Gov. Jerry Brown's Tax Campaign
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Forget Obama vs. Romney. The biggest political match-up in California this November may be between the president and Gov. Jerry Brown -- or at least their respective campaigns. In one corner is Brown, who is working to pass a November...

Prop. 39 Would End Tax Giveaway, Raise $1 Billion For California
George Skelton @
latimes.com
The initiative would do away with an incentive for out-of-state corporations not to invest in California.

When Unions Lose, It's Not Always 'game Over' - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Union workers hold signs during a rally in San Francisco.

Santa Clara County Tries Again For A Sales Tax
contracostatimes.com
Six years after county voters said no to a half-cent sales tax hike, the county is back on the ballot with a more modest, eighth-cent request they say is needed to fund health and safety programs but critics argue will only pay down generous pension costs.

California Legislative Races Heavily Targeted By Independent Campaigns
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Independent campaigns spending big for legislative candidates

When unions lose, it's not always 'game over'
Jon Ortiz @
sacbee.com
California unions are fighting for their life to defeat a Nov. 6 ballot measure that would choke off their political cash, but in other states where labor has lost similar fights, they haven't just rolled over and died.

This Election, Two Profoundly Different Visions for Health Care
nytimes.com
When Americans go to the polls next month they will cast a vote not just for president but for one of two profoundly different visions for the future of the country’s health care system.

Prop. 32 debate pits GOP strategist vs. journalist; campaigns weigh in
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
Political arguments break out on Twitter all the time. On Tuesday, Proposition 32 was a hot topic. Here are some bits of the debate.

State Senate Panel To Probe Refineries, Gas Prices
ibabuzz.com
By Josh Richman Wednesday, October 10th, 2012 at 10:11 am in Barbara Boxer, California State Senate, economy, energy, Mark Leno, U.S. Senate.

Obama Fights Erosion Of Female Voters With Attacks On Romney Over Abortion - The Hill - Covering Congress, Politics, Political Campaigns And Capitol Hill | Thehill.com
Ian Swanson @
thehill.com


Is Ann Romney Saving Her Husband’s Campaign? She Just Might Be.
Chris Cillizza @
washingtonpost.com
There’s a bit of an Ann Romney boomlet happening in the presidential campaign at the moment.

California's Renewable-energy Plans May Hinge On Presidential Race
Evan Halper @
latimes.com
Players big and small in the state's rapidly growing industry worry a Romney win will strip them of federal subsidies they say are key to clean energy's future.

Yes on C campaign spends big in push to get marijuana dispensaries into Palo Alto
Jason Green @
mercurynews.com
The group behind a measure that would allow up to three medical marijuana dispensaries to open in Palo Alto may not be flush with campaign contributions, but that isn't stopping it from spending hand over fist as the Nov. 6 election looms.

Health Officials Warn Of Elevated Plague Risk In Lake Tahoe Basin - Folsom/el Dorado News - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
El Dorado County environmental health officials are urging residents and visitors to take precautions after a chipmunk found in the Lake Tahoe Basin last week tested presumptive positive for the bacteria that causes the plague.

Lausd Approves One-year Contract For Superintendent John Deasy - La Daily News
dailynews.com
The Los Angeles Unified school board voted 6-0 late Tuesday to grant a one-year contract extension to Superintendent John Deasy.

Berman, Sherman Mix It Up -- Again -- In Congressional Race Forum
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Democratic Reps. Brad Sherman of Sherman Oaks and Howard Berman of Valley Village duked it out in another candidates forum Wednesday. The two are competing for the same San Fernando Valley congressional district seat in the Nov. 6 election.

Oakland Sues Feds Over Pot Dispensary
Matthai Kuruvila @
sfgate.com
The city of Oakland took the unusual step Wednesday of filing a suit in an attempt to stop the federal government from seizing and closing down one of the largest medical marijuana dispensaries in the city.

At This Auction, Bidders Get Deals, California Gets Revenue - Our Region - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Jerry Woutat, left, of Sacramento and other prospective bidders inspect old state cars and trucks in a lot in Davis. The first such auction, held in August, raised almost $700,000 in revenue for the state. The tally for the latest auction was not available Wednesday.

Independent spending on CA legislative races nears $5 million
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Independent groups are dropping big bucks to influence dozens of state legislative races, spending more than $4.8 million on television ads, mail pieces and other campaign activities since the beginning of August.

Seton Medical Center, affiliate donate almost $900,000 to San Mateo County's Measure A sales tax hike campaign
Bonnie Eslinger @
mercurynews.com
While San Mateo County officials maintain they have yet to decide how to distribute $60 million a year if the Measure A half-cent sales tax increase passes on Nov. 6, Seton Medical Center and its parent group have donated $885,868 to the campaign.

Court Blocks South Carolina Voter ID Law, for Now
nytimes.com
The court ruled that there was not enough time to educate voters and officials about the law, but that it might go into effect in 2013.