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THE NOONER for October 10, 2012

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E-27

Good morning. Ugh, this watching baseball on East Coast time is not easy. Giants and As have the chance to respectively even-up their series at 1:07pm PDT and 6:37pm PDT.

FOLLOW THE MONEY:

AFSCME ($32,500), PECG ($25,000), CSEA ($30,000), SEIU ($32,500), SEIU Local 1000 ($30,000), CTA ($32,000), Building & Construction Trades ($25,000)
      ==> GIVE TO Humboldt County Democratic Central Committee 
           ==>which GIVES $165,000 to Cathleen Galgiani for SD05 

$$$: The large IE "Citizens Against Wasteful Spending" against Fran Pavley is a new committee which hasn't disclosed the source of its funds.

PRESIDENTIAL TRACKER: Obama pulls even in Gallup's likely voter tracker, 48%-48%.

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL TRACKER: Rasmussen finds Dems at 44% to the GOP at 43%, a five point swing to Dems from last week.

SURGE: Leland Yee's office claims that 380,000 voters have used the online voter registration system in the first 3 weeks. Further, Yee's release reports "According to Political Data Inc. (PDI) – California's largest provider of voter information used by political campaigns – in the 31 counties that have reported, 28 percent of those registering online are under the age of 26, compared to only 12 percent of the current overall registrations in those counties. A small uptick appears to also be coming from overseas and out-of-state Californians (typically students and members of the military), accounting for 2 percent of the online registrations in reporting counties versus only 1 percent of the overall registered voters in those counties."

Here's the Paul Mitchell uber-geek spreadsheet, with county breakdowns.

CD10: Stockton Record endorses Jose Hernandez and writes "We wanted to ask Denham about his water views, but repeated attempts to reach him to invite him to sit down with The Record's editorial board were ignored."

Uh, that's not good for a sitting congressman, even if Stockton is not in the district.

CD24: Abel Maldonado releases a likely voter poll that shows him ahead 45-44% against Lois Capps. I haven't seen the poll, but I'm a bit suspicious, as neither the Democrats or Republicans (and affiliated) IEs are investing in the district.

CD30: The -ermans make Politico's 10 nastiest races. If the add an 11th, it might be Denham-Hernandez.

SD39: Marty Block's internal poll has him up 45-27% over George Plescia.

SF: Ross Mirkarimi keeps his job.

DROUGHT: Why did all the public ballot measure polling happen in a one-week period of time. We really need better coordination.

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: The American Council of OB-GYNs has an IE supporting Ricky Gill, not opposing. 

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BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - LAT: no on 35; PE: no on 31

PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
LA Daily News   Y   N     Y N   N Y
LAT Y   N N Y N  Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCR N   Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise N N   N N N Y N N Y Y
SacBee Y N N N Y  N Y N N Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y Y N   Y Y N N N Y

 

AROUND THE CAPITOL POLLING AVERAGES

No new polls since Sunday's Prop. 36 poll. The tracking of the Around The Capitol polling averages is available at www.aroundthecapitol.com/ballot/.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 53.5% (-0.3%)
No: 37.2%
Undecided: 9.0%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 30.4% (+4.7%)
No: 37.9%%
Undecided: 31.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.2% (-0.8%)
No: 43.0%
Undecided: 13.6%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 55.8% (+0.4%)
No: 32.8%
Undecided: 11.4%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.9% (-1.0%)
No: 43.5%
Undecided: 11.6%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 82.2% (-2%)
No: 10.5%
Undecided: 7.3%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 71.9% (-4.9%)
No: 17.1%
Undecided: 11.1%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 61.4% (+2.7%)%
No: 27.8%
Undecided: 10.8%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.4% (-0.9%)
No: 45.4%
Undecided: 12.4%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.7% (+3.6%)
No: 30.2%
Undecided: 15.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.3%)
No: 2

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Buy $9,997.43 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Brian Bilbray (Oppose) Professional Services $10,436.99 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Julia Brownley (Support) Media Buy $5,206.95 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Buy $108,873.45 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Brian Bilbray (Oppose) Media Buy $399,673.58 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Tony Strickland (Oppose) Media Buy $5,206.95 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Buy $270,099.90 10/09/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jeff Denham (Oppose) Media Buy $179,535.83 10/09/12
Americans for Accountability in Leadership John Garamendi (Oppose) Mass Mail $18,805.76 10/09/12
Communications Workers of America Working Voices Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Buy $99,525.00 10/09/12
Communications Workers of America Working Voices Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Production $5,249.00 10/09/12
Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC Brian Bilbray (Support) Slate Mailer $3,500.00 10/09/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
California Black Political Action Committee Chris Holden (Support) $3,500 10/04/2012 10/09/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Shirley Weber (Support) $3,500 10/04/2012 10/09/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Cheryl Brown (Support) $5,450 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Jeff Miller (Support) $96,226 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Cheryl Brown (Support) $29,266 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Jim Nielsen (Support) $51,902 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Californians Allied For Patient Protection Independent Expenditure Account Candidate Jennifer Ong (Support) $40,522 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Chau For Assembly 2012, Independent Doctors For A Better Future To Support Ed Ed Chau (Support) $2,475 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Citizens Against Wasteful Spending Fran Pavley (Oppose) $103,183 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Committee For The Right To Know: Vote Yes On 37!!!, The   $9,848 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jerry Hill (Support) $32,060 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Democratic Party Of Santa Cruz County   $6,601 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Richard Roth (Oppose) $169,508 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Edwin Chau (Oppose) $51,220 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Peter Tateishi (Support) $15,432 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee Pol Contribs By Payroll Ded. Contribs To Candidate (Oppose) $1,119 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs Pac (state) Alan Jackson (Support) $5,100 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Rocky Chavez (Support) $73,615 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Peter Tateishi (Support) $258,850 10/09/2012 10/09/2012
Ventura County Democratic Central Committee - State Hannah-beth Jackson (Support) $1,402 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Ventura County Democratic Central Committee - State Californians For Clean Energy And Jobs, Sponsored (Support) $1,098 10/08/2012 10/09/2012
Western Growers Independent Expenditure Committee Betsy Butler (Oppose) $65,268 10/09/2012 10/09/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Tax Rival Munger Unloads On Gov. Jerry Brown Initiative
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Molly Munger, an attorney who has spent more than $30 million on the Proposition 38 campaign to raise taxes, launched an ad today criticizing Gov. Jerry Brown's rival tax increase measure, Proposition 30, for allowing "politicians" to "take" money away from schools.

Long Beach Education Officials Offer Doomsday Scenarios If Prop. 30 Fails
contracostatimes.com
On Tuesday, LBUSD Superintendent Chris Steinhauser, LBCC President Eloy Oakley and CSULB President F. King Alexander gathered on the steps of the universitys Walter Pyramid to describe the devastating impacts on local education if Prop. 30 fails.

Unions Say Prop. 32 Campaign Is Hiding Its Expenses
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
The union-backed No on Proposition 32 campaign has filed a formal complaint with a state political watchdog commission over $8 million the measure's supporters spent on media ads last month.

Ad watch: Prop. 38 ad distorts lawmakers' ability to take school funds
sacbee.com
Backers of Proposition 38, a tax initiative rivaling Gov. Jerry Brown's Proposition 30, launched their first television ad Tuesday directly attacking the governor's proposal. Wealthy attorney Molly Munger has almost single-handedly financed the Proposition 38 campaign, having spent nearly $31 million so far. Her proposal would raise income taxes on all but the poorest residents to generate $7 billion annually for schools and early childhood programs and $3 billion for the state budget initially. Following is the text of the ad and an analysis by Kevin Yamamura of The Bee Capitol Bureau:

Molly Munger opens separate committee to attack Prop. 30
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Wealthy attorney Molly Munger, who wants voters to raise income taxes for education and state budget relief in Proposition 38, formed a new committee this week for the express purpose of critiquing rival tax initiative Proposition 30.

Government Aid Provides $1 Of Every $6 In Sacramento Income - Data Center - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney recently decried the high number of Americans receiving government aid. In the Sacramento region, roughly 19 cents of every dollar in personal income comes from the government.

Prop 38 Video
John Fensterwald @
edsource.org
It is what supporters of Proposition 30, Gov. Brown’s education funding initiative, suspected and feared would happen. In a new 30-second TV ad that circulated today, the rival campaign of Proposition 38 takes pot shots at Prop 30.

California teachers' union donations surpass $20 million to fight Prop. 32
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
The California Teachers' Association has given another $2 million to the No on Proposition 32 campaign over the last 10 days, bringing the union's total spending to fight the measure to more than $20 million.

Reforming Three Strikes
Joaquin Palomino @
eastbayexpress.com
Throughout the 1990s, tough-on-crime laws were extremely popular in California. Numerous pieces of legislation lengthened prison terms for many crimes, and the War on Drugs locked up an unprecedented number of small-time criminals. However, it was California's Three Strikes law — approved by an overwhelming majority of voters in 1994 — that exemplified the tough-on-crime mindset of the decade.

Rally Wednesday for Proposition 30 in Todos Santos Plaza
Theresa Harrington @
mercurynews.com
Teachers, an assemblywoman and the state Superintendent of Public Instruction will gather in Concord to drum up support for governor's education initiative on November ballot

California Has Chance To Change Three Strikes, Repeal Death Penalty
contracostatimes.com
On Nov. 6, Californians will vote on Proposition 34, which would repeal the death penalty, and Proposition 36, which would ease the nations harshest Three Strikes sentencing law.

Services Set For Political Trailblazer Mervyn Dymally
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Services for former California lieutenant governor and lawmaker Mervyn M. Dymally will be held Oct. 17. The family has established a memorial fund in his name.

Reality Check: Anti-prop. 30 Ad Is Misleading Because It Implies It Won't Help Schools
Mike Rosenberg @
mercurynews.com
New anti-Proposition 30 ad is misleading because it implies it won't help schools

Prop. 40: Confusing, Abandoned, Still On Ballot | Prop, Vote, Measure
BRIAN JOSEPH @
ocregister.com
By BRIAN JOSEPH / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Mt. Diablo school board endorses Proposition 30, approves strategic plan
Theresa Harrington @
mercurynews.com
After failing to act on education ballot initiative and draft strategic plan in past, trustees split votes Monday on controversial proposals

Prop. 31's Reforms Sweeping, Largely Unknown | California, State, Government
BRIAN JOSEPH @
ocregister.com
By BRIAN JOSEPH / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Viewpoints: Prop. 33 will hurt consumers to benefit a billionaire
sacbee.com
Proposition 33 allows insurance companies to raise rates on motorists with perfect driving records. If voters buy this lemon, millions of law-abiding Californians will see a new surcharge on their auto insurance premium bills. Proposition 33 carves a loophole in state insurance law, banning regulatory review of this new rate hike.

Ohio secretary of state asks Supreme Court to block early voting
David G. Savage @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON — Ohio’s secretary of state is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to block a pair of rulings that will open the polls for all voters on the three days prior to the Nov. 6 election, a time when 105,000 Ohioans cast ballots four years ago.

Documents Shed Light On Impact Of Pepper-Spraying Crisis At UC Davis
Sam Stanton and Phillip Reese @
sacbee.com
Nearly a year after police pepper-sprayed students on the University of California, Davis, campus, UC officials released more than 9,500 pages of internal documents and emails Tuesday that provide the greatest glimpse yet of the incident's impact and aftermath.

Wealthy Schools Backer Molly Munger Launches Attack Ad Against Gov. Jerry Brown's Tax-hike Measure
Mike Rosenberg @
mercurynews.com
Molly Munger, a wealthy California schools advocate, is spending millions of dollars on an attack ad to bring down a measure from Gov. Jerry Brown thats aimed at preventing massive education cuts.

Bill Clinton Stumps For California Dems In Tight Congressional Races
Laurel Rosenhall @
blogs.sacbee.com
Former President Bill Clinton rallied thousands on the quad of UC Davis this morning, endorsing four California Democrats running for Congress and encouraging Californians to vote for Proposition 30 and against Proposition 32.

Executive Worries About Schools 'going Off The Cliff'
Steve Lopez @
latimes.com
Larry Vanden Bos, a member of the Palos Verdes school board, makes the case for backing Propositions 30 and 38.

Shadow Inventory Continues To Fall - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
The nation's so-called shadow inventory of properties in the foreclosure pipeline fell by more than 10 percent from 2.6 million housing units in July 2011 to 2.3 million housing units in July 2012, Irvine-based tracking firm CoreLogic reported this morning.