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THE NOONER for October 5, 2012

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E-32

SIREN: YO, BO, you can unfurl yourself from that fetal position beneath the Denver debate podium. (July +181k, Aug +142k, Sept +114k, rate=7.8%) [GOP Contrarian Talking Point]

PRESIDENTIAL DAILY TRACKING: Gallup: Obama 50%, Romney 45% , Rasmussen: Obama 49%, Romney 47%

Good morning. You made it through another week, and there are now only five weekends before the election. Welcome to several hundred new Nooner readers over the last few weeks. You can read and search past Nooners, learn who I am, fill out a survey to tell me what you'd like to be reading, and learn how to become part of the super special subscribers club that pay for my server, coffee, and newspaper paywall costs.

DEADLINE DAY: Tonight at midnight is the deadline for state committees to file campaign finance reports for the period ending September 30. With an overloaded Secretary of State page, today is a great day to dump an IE that you'd like to fly under the radar.

I hope to get out summaries of candidate filings over the weekend, and will start the quarterly updates around 5pm tonight. Because the quarterly data will replace the Late Contributions, I want a majority of committees in before I start the manual update.

IS CD39 COMPETITIVE? I have been asked a lot about the 39th congressional district, which has Democrat Jay Chen taking on incumbent Republican Ed Royce. Some argue that this is a race similar to CD36 (Coachella) and is could be a sleeper when for the Dems. I still don't see it.

Republicans currently have a 7.8% registration advantage (at 39.9%), with a 23.4% of voters registered as NPP. That's the 12th highest NPP share of voters among California's 53 congressional districts. There was little voter registration activity between the June primary and September, with an increase of 0.2% of voters. Both Dem and Rep registrations fell, while NPP increased 0.4%.

The argument that those arguing that Jay Chen has a shot is that the district's sizeable Asian-American population of 24.23% CVAP will turn out and cast their ballots for the challenger. And, there is an independent expenditure effort out of San Francisco (America Shining) that is specifically targeting Chinese-American voters through newspaper ads and mail.

As I told KPCC on a recent interview (that aired today), independent voters largely break along the underlying voter registration in the district. In San Francisco, indie voters are liberal. In Orange County, they are conservative--at least along the lines of the normal split of registration in the district.

Let's look at 2010 when John Chiang faced Tony Strickland for reelection as State Controller. I currently project voter turnout statewide in a range similar as 2010's 59% (I am currently at 54%-62%), so it's a fair race to look at. In that race, Chiang received 38% of the vote in CD39 to Strickland's 47%. In the same district, Jerry Brown received 38% of the vote to Meg Whitman's 54%. In other words there was no discernible "bump" for Chiang from the large Asian-American population (mostly Chinese and Korean).

This district certainly is one for both parties to keep their eyes on. If there is a comprehensive immigration reform, thousands of Latinos would likely be brought onto the voter rolls. Less frequent voter turnout among citizen immigrants will improve the longer they are present in the US and in future generations. Nevertheless, I just don't see this district in play this year and am keeping it Safe Republican.

ROTHENBERG: CD36 (Coachella) from Likely R to Lean R; CD47 from Leans Dem to Dem Favored

CD24 (Santa Barbara): Foes Vie for Votes in 24th Congressional District [Tim Fucci @ VCStar]

CD26 (Ventura): Not surprisingly, the LAT gives the nod to Julia Brownley.

CD36 (Coachella): 5 Potential Dem House Upsets [Alex Isenstadt @ Politico]

NOT HELPING: CD36 (Coachella): Mary Bono Mack gets named as part of one of the top state political dynasties -- in Florida. [WaPo]

CD41 (Riverside): Takano, Tavaglione and the 41st Half & Half [Dan Bernstein @ PE]

CD52 (San Diego): Executive director of San Diego Taxpayers Association endorses Peters over Bilbray [KPBS]

ISSUE OF THE WEEKEND: Calif. gas prices jump by up to 20 cents overnight, analysts say spike in may last awhile [AP]

POST-SESSION THANK YOU NOTE: The California Hospital Association yesterday gave $100,000 to Darrell Steinberg's ballot measure committee and $50,000 to John Perez's ballot measure committee.

BRAVO: El Monte mayor Andre Quintero calls for reinstatement of the lifeguards fired for using the city pool to film a Gangnam Style video.

BALLOT MEASURE ENDORSEMENTS - today's updates - PE: yes on 36, OCR: yes on 36, LADN: yes on 36

 

PaperP30P31P32P33P34P35P36P37P38P39P40
LA Daily News   Y   N     Y N   N Y
LAT Y   N N Y   Y N N Y Y
MercNews/BANG Y Y N N Y Y Y N N Y Y
OCR N   Y Y N Y Y N N N Y
Press-Enterprise       N N N Y N   Y Y
SacBee   N N N Y  N Y N   Y Y
SFChron Y Y N N Y
Y N N N Y
UTSanDiego N Y   N   Y Y N N N  

 

AROUND THE CAPITOL POLLING AVERAGES

No new polls since Sunday's Prop. 36 poll. The tracking of the Around The Capitol polling averages is available at www.aroundthecapitol.com/ballot/.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 53.5% (-0.3%)
No: 37.2%
Undecided: 9.0%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 30.4% (+4.7%)
No: 37.9%%
Undecided: 31.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.2% (-0.8%)
No: 43.0%
Undecided: 13.6%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 55.8% (+0.4%)
No: 32.8%
Undecided: 11.4%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.9% (-1.0%)
No: 43.5%
Undecided: 11.6%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 82.2% (-2%)
No: 10.5%
Undecided: 7.3%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 71.9% (-4.9%)
No: 17.1%
Undecided: 11.1%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 61.4% (+2.7%)%
No: 27.8%
Undecided: 10.8%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.4% (-0.9%)
No: 45.4%
Undecided: 12.4%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.7% (+3.6%)
No: 30.2%
Undecided: 15.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.3%)
No: 25.4%
Undecided: 30.5%

 

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Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Mailer $906.42 10/02/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $17,221.80 10/02/12
League of Conservation Voters Inc. Dan Lungren (Oppose) Staff Time for Press Release $8.77 09/21/12
League of Conservation Voters Inc. Dan Lungren (Oppose) Series of Mail Pieces $381,534.00 10/02/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Newspaper Ad (2) $820.46 10/03/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Television Ad $4,801.20 10/03/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Television Ad Production $1,500.00 10/03/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail & Postage $14,199.75 10/03/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Bigelow For Assembly 2012, Major Funding By Ca Dental Association Ie Pac, Ca Real Estate Ie Pac; Mother Lode Taxpayers Association Committee, Supporting Frank Frank Bigelow (Support) $10,000 04/20/2012 10/04/2012
Bigelow For Assembly 2012, Major Funding By Ca Dental Association Ie Pac, Ca Real Estate Ie Pac; Mother Lode Taxpayers Association Committee, Supporting Frank Frank Bigelow (Support) $45,498 04/19/2012 10/04/2012
Bigelow For Assembly 2012, Major Funding By Ca Dental Association Ie Pac, Ca Real Estate Ie Pac; Mother Lode Taxpayers Association Committee, Supporting Frank Thomas Rico Oller (Oppose) $20,431 05/18/2012 10/04/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $15,409 10/03/2012 10/04/2012
Californians Allied For Patient Protection Independent Expenditure Account Candidate Jennifer Ong (Support) $46,067 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Adam Gray (Support) $60,474 10/03/2012 10/04/2012
Democratic Party Of Santa Cruz County   $2,000 10/03/2012 10/04/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Bill Batey (Support) $13,558 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Richard Roth (Oppose) $248,441 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Matthew Lin (Support) $33,953 10/03/2012 10/04/2012
Ong For Assembly 2012, Sponsored By California Optometric Association Political Action Committee; Doctors Of Optometry For Better Healthcare In Support Of Dr. Dr. Jennifer Ong (Support) $48,366 10/03/2012 10/04/2012
Planned Parenthood Action Fund Of The Pacific Southwest Pac Richard Roth (i) (Support) $1,370 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Planned Parenthood Action Fund Of The Pacific Southwest Pac Jose Medina (i) (Support) $1,370 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
San Jose/evergreen Faculty Association, Aft 6157, Committee On Political Education (cope) Jim Beall (Support) $3,000 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
San Jose/evergreen Faculty Association, Aft 6157, Committee On Political Education (cope) Paul Fong (Support) $2,650 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Sonoma County Democratic Central Committee Susan Gorin (Support) $1,000 10/03/2012 10/04/2012
Support Our Anaheim Resort Area Pac (soar Pac) Tom Daly (Support) $6,824 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Teamsters Joint Council No. 7 Pac Proposition 32 (Oppose) $2,423 08/21/2012 10/04/2012
Teamsters Joint Council No. 7 Pac Proposition 32 (Oppose) $1,357 08/13/2012 10/04/2012

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
How California newspapers advise voters on ballot measures
Dan Walters @
blogs.sacbee.com
California voters will decide the fate of 11 ballot measures this year, including such heavyweight issues as Gov. Jerry Brown's proposed tax increase and the latest version of a years-long fight over union political power.

TV Ad Against Food Labeling Initiative Proposition 37 Is Pulled
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
A television spot opposing Proposition 37, the genetically engineered food labeling initiative, was pulled briefly this week.

Crosby, Stills, Nash And Morello Rage Against Prop. 32
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Tom Morello joined veteran activist super-group Crosby, Stills & Nash in Los Angeles on Wednesday for a fundraiser to defeat Proposition 32. The November ballot measure would make major changes to California's campaign finance system, including banning the practice of...

Ad Watch: Anti-Prop. 30 ad misleads on school spending from proposed new tax
sacbee.com
Opponents of Proposition 30 – Gov. Jerry Brown's initiative to raise taxes for the state budget and avoid school cuts – launched their first television ad in California markets Thursday. The No on 30 coalition consists of anti-tax groups and has backing from Charles Munger Jr. and Charles B. Johnson, two of the state's wealthiest residents. Following is the text of the ad and an analysis by Kevin Yamamura of The Bee Capitol Bureau.

House Race Heats Up Thanks To Outside Money
MARTIN WISCKOL @
ocregister.com
The 47th Congressional District race saw a massive TV ad attack campaign launched by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on behalf of Republican Gary DeLong, portraying Democratic opponent Alan Lowenthal as a job killer.

Jerry Brown Sidesteps Death Penalty Discussion As California Voters Face Choice
David Siders @
sacbee.com
The Democratic governor has declined to say how he will vote on the death penalty or other ballot measures, and he is not expected to do so before Election Day. He said is focused solely on his own initiative to raise the state sales tax and income taxes on California's highest earners.

Anti-tax Group Sues To End State Fire Fee, Wants Refunds
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association announced today that it is suing to end a $150 annual state fire fee imposed on California's rural residents and obtain refunds for those who have already paid.

One Year In To Realignment, Local Law Enforcement Voice Fears - La Daily News
dailynews.com
A year into the implementation of Gov. Jerry Brown's public safety realignment, dozens of law enforcement officials from across Southern California came together Tuesday to express concerns about its impact on crime and on their scarce resources.

Federal Takeover Of Oakland Cops Urged
Demian Bulwa, Matthai Kuruvila and Justin Berton @
sfgate.com
A historic fight over whether Oakland can reform its own police force began in earnest Thursday when civil rights attorneys asked a federal judge to take the unprecedented step of appointing a receiver to ensure the changes are made.

Community colleges say cutbacks hurting veterans
utsandiego.com
Official say local community colleges will face midyear budget cuts of more than $30 million if Proposition 30 fails. The measure would temporarily raise the sales tax and income taxes on the wealthy.

CalSTRS Will Invest In Solar Power Plant
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
CalSTRS said Thursday it's investing $42.8 million in a solar-power plant near Sacramento and three other California infrastructure projects.

Impact of Brown's tax initiative debated in San Diego
Christopher Cadelago @
utsandiego.com
Advocates for and against Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative drew sharp contrasts Thursday on whether a boost in sales tax and added levies on high earners would be a prerequisite or pitfall in getting the state's fiscal house in order.

Insurance Commissioner Backs Eye Care In California Health Exchange
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
Rancho Cordova's Vision Service Plan has a top government ally in its corner in its fight with a state agency over a new insurance program.

Tax group sues to block California firefighting fee
DON THOMPSON, Associated Press @
mercurynews.com
SACRAMENTO -- A taxpayer group, joined by plaintiffs throughout California, filed a lawsuit Thursday seeking to block a fee that is being assessed on more than 800,000 property owners to raise money for fire prevention.

Social Media Leaves Spin Doctors In Dust
Joe Garofoli @
sfgate.com
By the time the spinners started cheerleading for their campaigns after Wednesday's debate, the media narrative about Republican Mitt Romney's strong showing and moderator Jim Lehrer's sleepy performance had already taken root on social networks.

Delta, Accustomed To Water Wars, Prepares For Battle
Bettina Boxall @
latimes.com
Landowners plan their fight against two 35-mile underground tunnels to carry water from the Sacramento River to the giant pumps that fill southbound aqueducts.

Romney's presidential debate performance boosts downballot hopes
Michael A. Memoli @
latimes.com
HENNIKER, N.H. -- Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican nominee for governor in New Hampshire, had to be concerned with a poll released this week that showed his party’s presidential nominee trailing by 15 points in the battleground state.

Pete Stark Faces Toughest Electoral Challenge Of His Career
Josh Richman @
mercurynews.com
Rep. Pete Stark is challenged by Eric Swalwell, a fellow Democrat, in his bid for re-election to a 21st House term, and Swalwells biggest campaign asset might be Starks big mouth.

Prop. 36 Would Tweak '3-Strikes'
MARTIN WISCKOL @
ocregister.com
If Proposition 36 passes, Taylor and about 2,700 other inmates could seek resentencing, according to the non-partisan Legislative Analyst's Office. Additionally, most two-strike criminals would no longer face the life sentence when subsequently convicted of non-violent, non-serious offenses like simple drug possession. Murderers, rapist, child molesters and some others with extremely serious first or second strikes would still face life sentences regardless of the nature of their third felony.

Oakley school district to hold meetings on budget, ballot
Rowena Coetsee @
mercurynews.com
Oakley Union Elementary is offering residents a chance to understand its financial challenges and what Proposition 30 could mean for the district

Romney's Next Test: Sustaining His Newfound Momentum - Beth Reinhard - The Atlantic
politics @
theatlantic.com
It could be. But Romney has got to seize his most pointed attacks from the debate -- interrupting the president to remind him "but you've been president for four years!" -- and hit that message hard, again and again. Romney should keep up the poignant references to ordinary, struggling people -- the jobless Dayton woman who "grabbed his arm," the Denver mother who lost her home, the overtaxed small electronics business owner in St. Louis -- as way to diffuse the widely held perception that he's out of touch with ordinary people.

Dan Walters Daily
Dan Smith @
blogs.sacbee.com
Dan ponders the political consulting calculus that results in misleading TV ads on Proposition 30.