Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Receive this as a forward? Sign up here


THE NOONER for September 28, 2012

jump to headlines

E-39

Good morning. We made it to Friday! 

The best question I got from one of the beer distributors yesterday was "Why do you give your newsletter away for free?" My response: well, it doesn't have to be that way. And, he is now a loyal subscriber, and you can be too.

The governor took action on lots of bills yesterday (note 5 different releases). The jab of the day came in the signing message to AB 2358 (Hagman), which would place a statue of Ronald Reagan in the State Capitol Annex:

I am proud to sign Assembly Bill 2358 in honor of Ronald Reagan. I served as Secretary of State when he was Governor.

Even in those days he demonstrated courage and unique leadership ability -- even to the point of raising California taxes when he saw they were needed.

A few folks yesterday asked about why Capps v. Maldonado (CD24) didn't make it into the top 5 congressional races. My list is based on both campaign and independent activity, with a heavy weight on the latter. With few public polls, the amount that interest groups and national parties are spending in these races can give you an idea of just how competitive they actually are. The DCCC and supporters have moved money to take on Mary Bono Mack, rather than to tear down Abel Maldonado. That tells you that they have some indication that Capps is doing okay. We'll look at this each week, and targets are likely to change.

SD31: Business interests take new tact in anti-Roth ad [Jim Miller @PE]

USC/DORNSIFE: Registered voters

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 54%
No: 37%
Undecided: 8%

(Composite of respondents, 50% were read the fiscal impact, which appears on the ballot. Those read the fiscal impact were 51% in support.)

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 34%
No: 52%
Undecided: 13%

Unless they can show a single ballot measure in California's history that has passed with a polling trend like this, whoever is telling Molly Munger that she's got a shot at passage is committing political malpractice. 

DateYes No Und Poll  
9/12/12 43.4% 46.9% 9.7% CBRT/Pepperdine
9/16/12 45.0% 45.0% 11.0% PPIC
9/18/12 41.0% 44.0% 15.0% Field
9/26/12 44.9% 43.1% 12.0% CBRT/Pepperdine
9/26/12 34.0% 52.0% 13.0% USC/Dornsife
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE
40.7% 46.5% 12.7%  

Proposition 32 results are expected this afternoon, and Props. 34 and 36 will be out over the weekend.

CBRT: Oh, what to do. The California Business Roundtable/Pepperdine series came out with a new poll yesterday, with markedly different numbers than we saw from PPIC, Field and USC/Dornsife. Look at these numbers relative to the last public poll (Field, except for 37, which is USC/Dornsife:

  • Prop 30: +2.5%
  • Prop 31: +23.4%
  • Prop 32: +12.4%
  • Prop 34: +7.3%
  • Prop 37: +10.9%
  • Prop 38: +10.9%
  • Prop 39: +18.1%

As someone who rarely answers the phone for unknown numbers, I'm hopeful that the CBRT/Pepperdine model of an online poll using a ballot layout format can prove effective. However, if you look at all the other polls, this latest sample seems to be running several points higher on the yes side than other polls. Might a group of "online voters" just be hitting "Yes, Yes, Yes"? I hope not, but there has to be some explanation.

AROUND THE CAPITOL POLLING AVERAGES

Today includes USC/Dornsife on Props. 30 and 38, and the new CBRT poll on all measures, although CBRT is weighted less because of the above discussion. All polls now have at least more than one data point. The number in parentheses is the change from the last average.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Yes: 53.8% (+2.9%)
No: 37.0%
Undecided: 9.0%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 30.4% (+4.7%)
No: 37.9%%
Undecided: 31.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.0% (+2.2%)
No: 43.0%%
Undecided: 13.0%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 55.8% (+0.4%)
No: 32.8%
Undecided: 11.4%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 45.9% (+1.8%)
No: 42.8%
Undecided: 11.4%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 82.2% (-2%)
No: 10.5%
Undecided: 7.3%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 76.8% (-4.3%)
No: 15.2%
Undecided: 8.2%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 61.4% (+2.7%)%
No: 27.8%
Undecided: 10.8%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 43.3% (+0.6%)
No: 44.4%
Undecided: 12.6%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 54.7% (+3.6%)
No: 30.2%
Undecided: 15.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 44.2% (+0.3%)
No: 25.4%
Undecided: 30.5%

CD15: Pete Stark "answers the tough questions" in a series of web videos. [Josh Richman @ BANG]

CD30: The -ermans debate tomorrow night in an event sponsored by the Armenian National Committee. The event is 6pm at the Ferrahian Armenian School at 5330 White Oak in Encino.

AD69: Republican Joe Moreno drops out, citing the Hatch Act and threats to his county employment.

PRESIDENTIAL TRACKERS: Gallup: 50-44%, Rasmussen: 47-46%

GANGNAM STYLE: Psy visits Google and teaches Eric Schmidt the dance.

LOST: Apple's Tim Cook apologizes for the awful iOS6 maps app, which suggests I go four blocks out of my way to get to my house. You'd think that the grid system in downtown Davis would be easy to navigate.

On that note, I'm off to see if that maps app can get me to the restaurant I'm meeting Ben Tulchin at. Lots of polls to talk about with one of my favorite pollsters!

 

LIKE THE NOONER?

SUBSCRIBE: For only $2.99/month or $29.99/year, you will immediately be promoted to the cool kids club with an ad-free version with lots of good karma. 

ADVERTISE: Buy this spot and reach 6,146 subscribers of the free version of The Nooner. At $250/week, that's less than a penny per reader per day.

about the Nooner | take the Nooner survey

 

Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
House Majority PAC Jose Hernandez (Support) Media Production Costs $5,460.00 09/26/12
House Majority PAC Jose Hernandez (Support) Television Advertising $49,862.19 09/26/12
America Shining Jay Chen (Support) Newspaper Ads $1,332.79 09/24/12
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Brad Sherman (Support) Website Design Costs $3,500.00 09/27/12
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Brad Sherman (Support) Website Infrastructure Costs $5,800.00 09/27/12
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Brad Sherman (Support) Online Video Production Costs $23,200.00 09/27/12
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Gary Miller (Support) Direct Mail Costs $355,000.00 09/27/12
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Brad Sherman (Support) Consulting Services $100.00 09/27/12
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Gary Miller (Support) Consulting Services $100.00 09/27/12
Credo Superpac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Payroll $4,950.00 09/27/12
Credo Superpac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Phones $750.00 09/27/12
Credo Superpac Dan Lungren (Oppose) Printing $53.88 09/27/12
American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees Dan Lungren (Oppose) TV & Online ads $800,000.00 09/27/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Nielsen For Senate 2012, Friends And Neighbors For Jim Jim Nielsen (Support) $1,268 09/17/2012 09/27/2012
Nielsen For Senate 2012, Friends And Neighbors For Jim Jim Nielsen (Support) $131,853 09/14/2012 09/27/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $70,000 09/27/2012 09/27/2012
Small Business Action Committee Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction; Cont (Support) $1,142,400 09/26/2012 09/27/2012

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Romney's Health Plan A Mystery To GOP Candidate
MARTIN WISCKOL @
ocregister.com
Have trouble enumerating the details of Mitt Romney's plan to "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act? You're not alone. Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong is a Republican candidate for the 47th Congressional District. Gary DeLong is the Republican nominee for the 47th Congressional District and the National Republican Congressional Committee's touted "Young Gun," a designation in the candidate-support program co-founded by vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan.

Jerry Brown Signs Reagan Statue Bill, Makes Point About Taxes
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation blessing the construction of a Ronald Reagan statue at the state Capitol, citing his "courage and unique leadership ability" while pointing out that the Republican icon oversaw tax increases - just as Brown would like to do.

CSU Faculty Told Not To Campaign In Class
Evan Halper @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
At California State University, where applicants will be warned that the failure of the governor’s tax measure in November could hurt their chances of admission, faculty members are being advised to tone down their campaigning.

Area Leaders: Strengthen Health System Before Federal Changes Take Effect
Cynthia H. Craft @
sacbee.com
Citing severe shortcomings in the Sacramento region's threadbare safety net, a broad nexus of area leaders on Thursday committed to strengthening the community's health system by 2014, when the federal health care overhaul is scheduled to debut.

Jerry Brown Signs Bill On Social Media Passwords - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Employers and institutions of higher education will be barred from demanding user names and passwords to social media accounts of employees, job applicants and students under two bills signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown Thursday. "The Golden State is pioneering the social media revolution and these laws will protect all Californians from unwarranted invasions of their personal social media accounts," the governor in a released statement. The release announcing he had signed the bill notes that, at the college level, many student athletes had become the target of such demands.

Berman-Waxman Grip On California Loosening
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
There was a time when an organization – or machine – controlled by Democratic Congressmen Howard Berman and Henry Waxman dominated Los Angeles County politics.

Activists Launch Grassroots Campaign For Prop. 30
latimesblogs.latimes.com
A coalition of community groups is launching a grassroots effort to support Proposition 30 in hopes that voter turnout among young and minority voters will be a decisive factor in the November election. Activists will hold rallies, go door-to-door and...

Yes On Prop. 39 Pulls Ads As Opposition Fades
ibabuzz.com
By Josh Richman Thursday, September 27th, 2012 at 5:24 pm in ballot measures, taxes.

Hayashi Needs To Regain Voters' Trust - Sfgate
sfgate.com
Security guards at the store were already on alert because a week earlier a saleswoman noticed a dress missing after a woman fitting Hayashi's description had tried it on. Hayashi terms out of the Assembly in January, but she is steaming full-speed ahead after her next public office: the District Two seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors vacated by Nadia Lockyer, the estranged wife of state Treasurer Bill Lockyer. In a phone interview Thursday, Hayashi said county residents should view her candidacy and fitness for office in the context of her 20-year record of public service - not the shoplifting case she refers to as "the incident." Hayashi is asking a lot, too much really, from East Bay constituents who watched Nadia Lockyer's novice political career nosedive after an extramarital affair became a public scandal this year. Hayashi may well resuscitate her political career, but it's too soon for her to run for another office after trampling the contract of trust and transparency that exists between voters and the politicians elected to represent them.

Barbara Boxer calls for DOJ to enforce voting rights laws
Alana Semuels @
latimes.com
Sen. Barbara Boxer today urged the Department of Justice to enforce voting rights laws in the wake of a Los Angeles Times story detailing efforts to purge voter rolls in Ohio.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa Kicks Off Farewell Tour
Rick Orlov @
dailynews.com
With only nine months remaining in his term, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa on Thursday kicked off a farewell tour highlighting the achievements of his years as mayor as well as what he learned from San Fernando Valley voters.

Unions still playing a big, if different, role in elections
Alana Semuels @
latimes.com
Their ranks may be constantly shrinking and their bargaining methods under fire from governors across the country, but labor unions seem still determined to play a big role in this election, though a slightly different role than they played in the past.

The other political campaigns: Five Senate races to watch
mercurynews.com
With Election Day approaching, Senate races around the country are drawing attention. Here are some of the more interesting races.

Democrat Donnelly pulls ahead in tight Indiana Senate race
Kim Geiger @
latimes.com
In a state that is considered almost guaranteed to back Mitt Romney in the presidential election, Democrat Joe Donnelly has pulled slightly ahead of his Republican opponent, Richard Mourdock, in the race to replace Indiana’s outgoing Sen. Richard G. Lugar.

New Poll Finds Voters Split Over Pension Changes
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

Campbell's Decision To Close South Sacramento Soup Plant Jolts Workers, Officials - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Campbell Soup Co. on Thursday announced that it would close its aging south Sacramento plant, where the company has made canned soup for more than six decades. The decision will eliminate about 700 jobs. The shutdown will occur in phases, with final closure coming next summer.

Jerry Brown signs bill for Reagan statue in Capitol
mercurynews.com
SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Jerry Brown has signed a bill authorizing construction of a Ronald Reagan statue inside the California Capitol.

Vieiwpoints: Pension reforms are stronger than you think
sacbee.com
The Queen of Hearts probably wouldn't sign the same pension reform bill that Gov. Jerry Brown recently signed, but Wonderland doesn't have courts to protect employee contractual rights, a legislature representing widely divergent views and public employee unions with bigger treasuries than the monarchy.

Jerry Brown OKs Bills To Expand Renewable Energy In California
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Gov. Jerry Brown signs energy-related bills

Analysis: Access To Health Care Starting To Resemble Access To Air Travel | State Of Health Blog From Kqed News
Michael L. Millenson, @
blogs.kqed.org
By Michael L. Millenson, Kaiser Health News

New Law Is Fallout From State Official's Killing Of Mountain Lion
latimesblogs.latimes.com
New law stems from Fish and Game commissioner's killing of mountain lion

Jerry Brown signs two social media privacy laws
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown signed two measures this morning to block California universities and employers from seeking access to applicants' social media accounts.