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THE NOONER for September 27, 2012

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THIS WEEK'S TOP 5 HOT RACES - CONGRESSIONAL

1. CD07 - Bera v. Lungren
2. CD52 - Bilbray v. Peters
3. CD26 - Brownley v. Strickland
4. CD41 - Takano v. Tavaglione
5. CD10 - Denham v. Hernandez

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Charles Munger, Jr. ($250,000) and companies including Chevron ($250,000), Phillip Morris USA ($150,000), Farmer's Insurance ($125,000), Sempra Energy ($125,000), and Anheuser Busch ($30,000)
  ==>> fund REFORM CALIFORNIA NOW 
     ==>> gives $200,000 to INLAND EMPIRE TAXPAYERS COMMITTEE (new committee)
         ==>> which then makes $151,886 media buy against Richard Roth (SD31

$$$: Spirit of Democracy adds $100,000 to the independent "Friends and Neighbors for Jim Nielsen" (SD02 special) for a total of $250,000. Spirit is funded mostly by Charles Munger, Jr., with money also from the California Dental Association and the California Real Estate PAC.

CD10: The ModBee has an online debate of Jeff Denham and Jose Hernandez, and Denham goes after Hernandez for a spotty voting record.

CD52: Bilbray, Peters Fence Over Medicare, Social Security [Christopher Cadelago @ SDUT]

DOGGIES, BOBCATS, AND BEARS, OH MY!: The animal kingdom is at peace, as the governor yesterday signed SB 1221, the bill prohibiting the use of canines in the hunting of bobcats and bears. Congrats to the tenacious, creative, and passionate Jennifer Fearing, who pulls another unexpected win. What's on tap for next year?

BILLS: In other bill news, the governor signed 19 and vetoed 5 education bills, and signed 9 bills relating to animal welfare, while vetoing 1.

EVERY VOTE COUNTS: 110,000 voters register online in first week [Josh Richman at BANG]

EVERY VOTE MOUNTS: California Watch looks at the Republican voter reg drive in Riverside, which Democrats are crying foul over.

$$$: George Soros kicks in $500,000 for the campaign to reform Three Strikes.

NO BLAME GAME: In more bad news for the capital city, Campbell Soup is shutting down its Sacramento plant, eliminating 700 jobs as it seeks to cut costs. [AP]

END GAME: In more evidence that "Election Day" is now a forty day stretch leading up to the day the ballots are counted, Obama takes to the air with a 2-minute closing ad.

WTFU: Samuel L. Jackson does an unconventional indie ad for Obama.

CORRECT LINK: The link to Sasha Issenberg's The Victory Lab was broken in some e-mail readers. 

AROUND THE CAPITOL POLLING AVERAGES

Later today, I'm taking some vacation time to speak to the California Beer and Beverage Distributors about this election cycle. In advance of that, I put together polling averages for the ballot measures. It's not perfect, as the data are limited. The methodology I use weights the polling results based on recency and methodology. For example, the current Field Poll results are weighted significantly higher than the CBRT/Pepperdine poll, since Field completed polling 6 days after CBRT/Pepperdine and because it used multilingual landline and cell phone polling, rather than the online methodology.

We should see another California Business Roundtable poll today, and I'll be regularly updating the averages. If you come across polls from reputable firms that provide the full information, send them to me and I'll consider inclusion.

I'll be updating the averages at http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/ballot/.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
Yes: 51.9%
No: 38.0%
Undecided: 10.1%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
Yes: 25.7%
No: 40.1%
Undecided: 33.8%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 41.8%
No: 44.5%
Undecided: 13.7%

Proposition 33*: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 55.4% 
No:  33.7%
Undecided: 10.9%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 44.1%
No: 44.4%
Undecided: 11.5%

Proposition 35*: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 84.2%
No:9.6%
Undecided: 6.2%

Proposition 36*: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 81.1%
No: 13.1%
Undecided: 5.9%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 58.7%
No:  30.6%
Undecided: 10.7%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 42.7%
No:  44.8%
Undecided: 12.8%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
Yes: 51.1%
No: 34.1%
Undecided: 14.8%

Proposition 40*: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
Yes: 43.9%
No:  26.3%
Undecided: 29.8%

* Only one data point used (CBRT/Pepperdine).

 

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Federal Independent Expenditure Reports
Independent SpenderCandidatePurposeAmountDate
Californians for Integrity in Government Brad Sherman (Support) Mailer $900.65 09/24/12
Californians for Integrity in Government Howard Berman (Oppose) Mailer $13,509.69 09/24/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Brian Bilbray (Oppose) Media Buy $10,436.99 09/25/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Mary Bono Mack (Oppose) Media Buy $81,095.18 09/25/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Brian Bilbray (Oppose) Media Buy $390.908.70 09/25/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Buy $199,867.50 09/25/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jeff Denham (Oppose) Media Buy $255,150.00 09/26/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Buy $101,823.75 09/26/12
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Dan Lungren (Oppose) Media Production $12,716.26 09/26/12
America Shining Jay Chen (Support) Newspaper Ad $234.82 09/23/12
America Shining Ed Royce (Oppose) Direct Mail & Postage $29,113.35 09/25/12
Sierra Club Independent Action Dan Lungren (Oppose) Consults - Direct Mail $24,959.71 09/23/12

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Block For State Senate 2012, Marty Human Trafficking, Penalties, Sex Offender Registr (Support) $20,000 09/26/2012 09/26/2012
California Correctional Peace Officers Association Truth In American Government Fund (ccpoa Tag Fund) Prohibits Contributions By Payroll Deduction (Oppose) $350,000 09/25/2012 09/26/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Fran Pavley (Oppose) $27,526 09/25/2012 09/26/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers Association Richard Roth (Oppose) $151,886 09/26/2012 09/26/2012
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee To Support Prop. 28 Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $4,188 09/25/2012 09/26/2012
Small Business Action Committee Pac Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction; Cont (Support) $500,000 09/25/2012 09/26/2012
Truck Unit Pac Sponsored By The California Trucking Association Todd Zink (Support) $21,185 09/26/2012 09/26/2012

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Union Leader Defends Villaraigosa In The Wake Of Pension Vote
David Zahniser @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Pension reform: A day after the Los Angeles City Council backed Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's push to roll back pensions for newly hired city employees, the president of one of the state's biggest private sector unions defended the mayor, saying he is "not the enemy" of workers.

Gov. Jerry Brown Stumps For Prop. 30, Arguing It's Best Hope For Schools
Barbara Jones @
dailynews.com
Admitting that his proposed tax hike will face a tough battle at the polls, Gov. Jerry Brown made a personal pitch Wednesday for Proposition 30 as the best hope for salvaging California's cash-strapped education system.

Sacramento Region To Get Arb Seat Under Newly Signed Law
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Sacramento region will have a seat on the California Air Resources Board under legislation signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown this week.

Union Leader Defends Villaraigosa In Wake Of Pension Vote
David Zahniser @
latimes.com
Members of an SEIU unit cheer the mayor, a day after another chapter rallied against pension reductions for new workers.

Romney cites his Mass. healthcare law as proof of his compassion
Seema Mehta @
latimes.com
TOLEDO, Ohio — Mitt Romney, while campaigning in Ohio on Wednesday, highlighted the healthcare law that he passed while governor of Massachusetts as proof of his empathy for people.

After Shoplifting Plea, Lawmaker Seeks Another Office
Michael J. Mishak @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
A California lawmaker who pleaded no contest earlier this year to shoplifting charges is seeking another elected office. Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi (D-Hayward) will hold a fundraiser Wednesday night in the Bay Area for her campaign for Alameda County supervisor.

110,000 Register To Vote Online In First Week
Josh Richman @
ibabuzz.com
About 110,000 Californians registered to vote online during the first week they could.

Jerry Brown Signs Bill Revising California School Rating System
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation to de-emphasize standardized test scores when measuring the performance of California schools, his office announced today.

Governor Jerry Brown Signs Bill That Bans The Use Of Dogs To Hunt Bears And Bobcats In California
Eric Kurhi @
mercurynews.com
In what animal welfare activists call the end of an inhumane, unsporting practice and hunters call legislative meddling in natural resource policy, Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday signed a law banning the use of dogs to hunt bears and bobcats.

State Faces New Legal Threat To Budget
latimesblogs.latimes.com
California cities are suing Gov. Jerry Brown's administration over its tough tactics to secure money from defunct redevelopment agencies, a key part of the state budget.

The Caucus: Before a Single Debate, Iowans Start Voting for President
JEFF ZELENY @
thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
Less than a week before the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney and a month before the closing arguments of a campaign traditionally would be made, a steady stream of voters walked into election offices across Iowa on Thursday to cast their ballots.

Assembly candidate Brian Dahle to voters
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Assembly candidate Brian Dahle is taking the unusual tack of listing his cellphone number on ballot statements sent by counties to voters in the 1st Assembly District, which stretches from Modoc to Placer counties.

Gov. Jerry Brown Vetoes State Intervention In Student Suspensions
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

15th Senate Candidate Coto Faces Questions In Schools Scandal
Local @
mercurynews.com
15th Senate rival Assemblyman Jim Beall, D-San Jose, says former Assemblyman Coto should tell more about his work with a Southern California consulting firm caught up in a San Diego-area school district pay-to-play scandal.

New law gives Sacramento region Air Resources Board seat
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Sacramento region will have a seat on the California Air Resources Board under legislation signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown this week.

Prop 38 Rouses The Latino Vote | Neon Tommy
anonymous @
neontommy.com
The Proposition 38 campaign, led by attorney Molly Munger and the state's PTA, placed Latino actors Edward Olmos and Tyler Posey and Mexican TV personality Marco Regil, in front of cameras at a press conference in Hollywood's Beso Restaurant to advocate for the measure.

Gov. Jerry Brown Outlaws Using Dogs To Hunt Bears, Bobcats In California
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Gov. Brown outlaws using dogs to hunt bears and bobcats in California

Preview Of City College Improvement Plan
Nanette Asimov @
sfgate.com
City College of San Francisco will hire new leaders, lay off faculty, close and lease out properties, and make enrichment classes a low priority as part of its frenzied determination to remain accredited and stay in business.

Democrats Gain Favor In Battle For Senate
Lisa Mascaro, Washington Bureau @
latimes.com
Republicans' chances of gaining enough seats for Senate control begin to fade as more races start leaning toward Democratic candidates.

UC To Pay Total Of Nearly $1 Million To 21 Pepper-sprayed Occupy Protesters.
Local @
mercurynews.com
The University of California is set to pay about $1 million to settle a lawsuit filed by demonstrators who were pepper-sprayed during an Occupy protest at UC Davis last fall

Jerry Brown signs bill declaring May to be Labor History Month
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown, like the Democratic-controlled California Legislature, wants schoolchildren to learn about labor unions, preferably when they are in school and aren't too busy with other matters.

The Buzz: Assembly candidate Brian Dahle wants voters to call him, maybe
sacbee.com
Give Assembly candidate a call, but be nice, please

Gov.Brown signs bill barring landlords from forcing renters to declaw or devocalize pets
mercurynews.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation barring landlords from forcing renters to declaw or devocalize their pets to cut down on noise and property damage.

Chancellor named for state community college system
utsandiego.com
Brice Harris, former chancellor of the Los Rios Community College District, was named to the post leading the largest higher education system in the nation.