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THE NOONER for September 24, 2012

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CD30: SurveyUSA conducted a poll for KABC (n=628 likely voters, 09/18/12-09/19/12, +/-4%):

  • Howard Berman: 32%
  • Brad Sherman: 45%
  • Undecided: 23%

Noteworthy: Sherman outpolls Berman among Jewish voters 43%-38%, while much of the Valley Jewish political infrastructure supports Berman. The message that seems to be working for Sherman is that he represents the interest of the district, with 42% of likely voters saying he better represents the interests of the Valley, versus 24% for Berman. This causes problems for Berman, as his biggest cards to play (Feinstein, Boxer, B. Clinton) all make him appear to be more of a Capitol Hill insider.

TOP 50: Capitol Weekly is out with 1-50 of its Top 100 around the Capitol. Here is the top 5:

1. Anne Gust Brown, wife of Jerry Brown
2. Joe Nunez, California Teachers Association
3. Nancy McFadden, Executive Secretary, Office of the Governor
4. Marty Morgenstern, Secretary, Labor and Workforce Agency
5. Diana Dooley, Secretary, Health and Human Services Agency 

BILLS: The governor signed 24 and vetoed 5 bills on Saturday and signed 34 and vetoed 5 on Sunday. On Saturday, he also signed Holly Mitchell's AB 2438, which allows nurses to dispense hormonal birth control under some circumstances.

$$$: Molly Munger added $3 million to the Prop. 38 account, bringing her total to $32.4 million.

$$$: Former governor Gray Davis gives $2,000 to the governor's Prop. 30 account.

EVERY VOTER COUNTS (BUT SOME MORE THAN OTHERS): On Friday, we saw the latest voter registration report, with statisticts as of September 7, 2012. The latest data are on the Around The Capitol district pages, and below is a glance at some of the closely watched districts. If you're a true geek, here's a summary of the changes since the May 21 report.

CD03 (Yolo/Solano/Yuba/Lake) - Garamendi v. Vann

  • Registration change: -2,380 (-0.7%)
  • Dem share: 40.9% (-0.1%)
  • Rep share: 32.7% (+0.0%)
  • NPP share: 21.5% (+0.3%)

CD07 (E. Sac. Co.) - Bera v. Lungren

  • Registration change: +3,841 (+1.1%)
  • Dem share: 39.2% (+0.6%)
  • Rep share: 38.4% (-0.5%)
  • NPP share: 18.2% (+0.0%)

CD09 (San Joaquin) - Gill v. McNerney

  • Registration change: +2,720 (+0.9%)
  • Dem share: 45.1% (+1.3%)
  • Rep share: 35.3% (-1.2%)
  • NPP share: 15.8% (+0.1%)

CD10 (Stanislaus) - Denham v. Hernandez

  • Registration change: +1,513 (+0.5%)
  • Dem share: 39.7% (-0.6%)
  • Rep share: 39.1% (+0.6%)
  • NPP share: 16.5% (+0.1%)

CD21 (Kings) - Hernandez v. Valadao

  • Registration change: -1,815 (-0.9%)
  • Dem share: 47.5% (+1.1%)
  • Rep share: 32.9% (-0.2%)
  • NPP share: 15.9% (-0.7%

CD24 (Santa Barbara) - Capps v. Maldanado

  • Registration change: -3,974 (-1.2%)
  • Dem share: 38.0% (-0.3%)
  • Rep share: 35.6% (+0.3%)
  • NPP share: 20.9% (+0.0%)

CD26 (Ventura) - Brownley v. Strickland

  • Registration change: +845 (0.2%)
  • Dem share: 40.0% (-0.2%)
  • Rep share: 35.6% (-0.2%)
  • NPP share: 19.5% (+0.3%

CD36 (Coachella) - Bono Mack v. Ruiz

  • Registration change: +3,371 (+1.2%)
  • Dem share: 38.7% (+0.0%)
  • Rep share: 39.0% (-0.4%)
  • NPP share: 16.7% (+0.3%)

CD39 (Fullerton) - Chen v. Royce

  • Registration change: +937 (+0.2%)
  • Dem share: 32.1% (-0.1%)
  • Rep share: 39.9% (-0.2%)
  • NPP share: 23.4% (+0.0%)

CD41 (Riverside) - Takano v. Tavaglione

  • Registration change: +26,962 (10.4%)
  • Dem share: 41.5% (-1.5%)
  • Rep share: 38.3% (+3.6%)
  • NPP share: 16.2% (-1.6%

CD52 (San Diego) - Bilbray v. Peters

  • Registration change: -530 (-0.1%)
  • Dem share: 32.3% (-0.2%)
  • Rep share: 35.4% (-0.2%)
  • NPP share: 27.5% (+0.4%)



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Federal Independent Expenditures
America Shining Jay Chen (Support) Newspaper Ad Design $477.00 09/22/12
America Shining Jay Chen (Support) Newspaper Ad Design $338.40 09/22/12
America Shining Jay Chen (Support) Newspaper Ad Design $600.00 09/19/12


State Independent Expenditure Reports
Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Los Angeles County Federation Of Labor, Afl-cio Issues And Initiatives Committee To Support Prop. 28 Political Contributions By Payroll Deduction. Cont (Oppose) $199,972 09/21/2012 09/22/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Todd Zink (Support) $315 09/21/2012 09/21/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Fran Pavley (Oppose) $5,399 09/21/2012 09/21/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Cathleen Galgiani (Oppose) $51,112 09/21/2012 09/21/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Richard D. Roth (i) (Support) $51,785 09/21/2012 09/21/2012
Opportunity Pac - A Coalition Of Teachers, Health Care Givers, Faculty Members And Other School And Public Employees Jose J. Medina (i) (Support) $50,458 09/21/2012 09/21/2012


How Prop. 36 Would Change "Three Strikes" In Two Ways
Andy Furillo @
Aaron Collins wants out of prison, and Ronald Koroush doesn't want to go in, at least not for as long as the DA wants to put him away – and both figure to catch a break if California voters approve Proposition 36.

Jerry Brown Vetoes 'Wrong Way' Sacramento-San Francisco Commute Bill
Dan Smith @
Gov. Jerry Brown has put the brakes on a San Francisco Democratic lawmaker's effort to ease the "wrong way" morning commute between the Bay Area and Sacramento.

Early Voting Forces Presidential Campaigns To Alter Tactics
Paul West, Washington Bureau @
Early and absentee voting in many states is forcing the Romney and Obama campaigns to alter get-out-the-vote tactics, especially in swing states.

If Their Taxes Go Up, Will The Wealthy Go Elsewhere?
Dan Walters @
"Tax the rich" obviously has popular appeal, as new polls reconfirm, which is why Brown and his union allies chose that path. But how would those targeted for the increase react, should voters pass Proposition 30?

AM Alert
Micaela Massimino @
The Legislature is out, but the Assembly Budget Committee is in, with a hearing today on November's three tax initiatives -- Gov. Jerry Brown's Proposition 30, Molly Munger's Proposition 38 and Tom Steyer's Proposition 39.

Ad Watch: Prop. 32 spot's shadowy images befit its sponsors
Supporters of Proposition 32, a Nov. 6 ballot measure to change campaign finance law, have launched a 33-second television and radio ad campaign that touts the ballot proposal. Here's the text of the statewide spot and an analysis by Jon Ortiz of The Bee's Capitol Bureau:

'Petty Pace' Of Politics Tempers Gov. Jerry Brown's Big Ideas
Evan Halper and Anthony York @
Brown retains some of his old eccentricity but, after decades in politics, he moves more deliberately.

American Benefits Beget Rise In 'Birth Tourism'
Richard Chang @
Born in New York, Jennifer Shih, a UC Davis senior, attended high schools in Idaho and Utah before graduating from her alma mater in California. But even she will tell you she is anything but an all-American girl.

Schwarzenegger Is Back In New Role As Think Tank Guru
John Rogers @
Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office nearly two years ago, comes to the University of Southern California on Monday to play host to the first USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy symposium.

Rick Orlov's Tipoff: Pension Reforms May Jeopardize Privatization Plans
Rick Orlov @
Behind the scenes, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's pension reform proposal released last week could put plans to privatize the Los Angeles Zoo and the Convention Center on hold.

Stockton Bankruptcy: Bond Insurers Vs. CalPERS
Bond insurers arguing that Stockton is ineligible for bankruptcy because it did not attempt to negotiate a pension debt reduction with CalPERS, among other failings, may get their day in court in January.

Why Polls Vary: Things That Skew Results
Joe Garofoli @
For Americans just tuning in to the fever dream of election season, the past week has been a confusing swirl of conflicting poll results.

States Opposing Health Care Law Prepare for It Anyway
s health care overhaul are working to have an insurance exchange ready before the deadline next month to create one.

Romney Rallies Voters In Swing-state Colorado With Focus On Economy
Kevin Bogardus @
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney rallied voters at a campaign event on Sunday night in the vital battleground state of Colorado.

How Prop. 36 would change "three strikes" in two ways
Aaron Collins wants out of prison, and Ronald Koroush doesn't want to go in, at least not for as long as the DA wants to put him away – and both figure to catch a break if California voters approve Proposition 36.

Undiscussed In Chicago: Recruiting The Best To Teach The Poorest
Benjamin Riley @
What is truly remarkable about the Chicago teachers strike is how utterly oblivious all sides seem to be to the problem that Seth, and for that matter anyone who’s been inside a classroom lately, so easily identifies. We need good teachers, particularly to teach our poorest children. This is the biggest education-related problem facing Chicago. This is the biggest problem facing California. Long term, I think it’s the biggest problem facing the nation. Yet, we pay woefully inadequate attention to attracting bright young people into the teaching profession, or properly training them to become effective when they enter the classroom.

Presidential debate questions sync up with voter concerns
Paul West @
The first televised debate between President Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney will likely revolve around the top priorities of an overwhelming majority of voters: the economy and jobs.

Cmfthirdpartyheader - Sfgate
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @

Obama meets with 'The View,' no foreign leaders during UN assembly
Kathleen Hennessey @
NEW YORK - A stack of international problems piling up six weeks before Election Day has been competing with the campaign for President Obama’s time. Critics were quick to note on Monday which side appears to have won this week.

Obama ad says Romney should 'come clean' on his taxes
Julie Pace and Nedra Pickler @
The presidential candidates are criticizing each other in new television commercials aimed at winning working-class voters who could help swing the election, pitting Republican Mitt Romney's wealth against the loss of American jobs to China on President Barack Obama's watch.