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THE NOONER for July 25, 2012
CD26 POLL: Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad gets his hands on a Tulchin Research poll on the swing Ventura congressional seat, which found Julia Brownley at 48% and Tony Strickland at 44% [n=400, 7/15-19, +/- 4.9%]
Of course, congressional/legislative polling is very difficult given the uncertainty of turnout this November. As Matt Rexroad said recently about the June election (I paraphrase), "Lots of money was wasted on mail. When you're targeting in a low-turnout election, how do you predict which of the four-out-of-four voters are going to stay home?"
I like Ben Tulchin, have used him for community college work, and this poll is probably fairly accurate of a dead heat within the margin of error. But, this poll provides a good opportunity to ask the question--with turnout so uncertain, how should one conduct polls and read polls?
Hopefully candidates are having candid conversations with their pollsters about analyzing results using variable turnouts. Even within the turnout range that I currently project of 54%-62%, there can be a significant difference in polling based on the end of the range and who is deemed a likely voter. Clearly, the 73.45% average of the last five elections would lead to a dramatically different profile of likely voters.
Pollsters use a variety of measures of whether someone is likely, from objective (actual previous voting behavior) to subjective ("How interested are you in this election?"). Of course, pollsters also closely guard their likely voter methodology.
I've heard people try to spin margin of error as something that would account for variable turnout, but of course there is no relation. That is the margin of error assuming the universe of voters is spot on.
If you take the high-end of my range, it would mean that some voters who have voted in the last four presidential elections will stay home. Of course this is simplistic, as people die and new people register. But, if this lower turnout is true, how do you account for who is the 1 out of 4 reliable voters that doesn't turn out? Or, will we go from having one of the lowest voter turnouts in presidential primary history to one of the biggest rebounds?
MESSAGE FROM JERRY: If anyone else has dirty government laundry, please get it out now before my tax campaign begins.
FOIE FOLLIES: Sacramento restaurants find loopholes in foie gras ban - "St. Helena's Goose & Gander, which has a goose mascot named Fergus, currently offers a foie gras dish listed as "Senate Bill 1520." The $28 dish includes a "torchon of Fergus" with bing cherry jam and toast."
911 ON THE 420: L.A. City Council votes 14-0 to ban medical marijuana shops [Kate Linthicum @ LAT]
NOTHING TO SEE HERE: "Nearly all of Greenland's ice sheet started melting this month, a sudden freak event not seen since 1889: apne.ws/OfQaUY"
MEET THE VOTERS: NBC/WSJ national poll [Hart/McInturff, n=1000, July 18-22, +/-3.1%]
SORRY LADIES: Kim Jung-un is off the market.
IN MEMORIUM: David Howard, political director, California Association of Realtors, died at 64. [Corrected, with the sincerest of apologies.]TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
State Duns Cities For Millions Of Dollars
Wyatt Buchanan @ sfgate.com
California cities are in a high-stakes fight with officials in Sacramento over money that the state says the cities owe as part of the winding down of redevelopment agencies.
State Lawmaker Vows To Push Ahead On Medical Marijuana Bill
Michael J. Mishak @ latimesblogs.latimes.com
As the Los Angeles City Council voted Tuesday to effectively ban medical marijuana dispensaries, a state lawmaker vowed to push forward on legislation that would establish statewide regulations on growing, transporting and selling medical pot.
Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein Push For Assault Weapons Ban
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @ blog.sfgate.com
Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein push for assault weapons ban
Gov. Jerry Brown Once Again Faces Water Fight
Dan Walters @ sacbee.com
Brown and the Obama administration will declare agreement on moving forward on the Delta tunnel project this week.
California Legislative Analyst releases Prop. 32 explainer
Jon Ortiz @ blogs.sacbee.com
The Legislative Analyst's Office has issued the explanations that voters will read in their November ballot pamphlets for all of California's propositions, including the breakdown of Proposition 32.
Water Wars May Reignite Over Massive Water Plan
Lauren Sommer @ blogs.kqed.org
Battle lines are forming as Governor Brown prepares to roll out his proposal for the Delta
Campaign Finance Rule Enforcement Stepped Up In San Bernardino County
Gov. Jerry Brown signs bill increasing enforcement of campaign laws in San Bernardino County
New Law Increases School Police Powers, Critics Say
Melody Gutierrez @ sacbee.com
A new law that aims to address confusion over the authority of school district police departments has come under fire from some critics who say lawmakers have quietly increased school police powers under the guise of "cleanup language."
Santa Clara Valley Water District Puts $548 Million Parcel Tax On November Ballot
Paul Rogers @ mercurynews.com
Hoping voters will approve a new round of funding for many of its most high-profile projects, Silicon Valley's largest water provider on Tuesday placed on the November ballot an extension of a parcel tax that would raise $548 million over the next 15 years for flood control work, seismic repairs on aging dams and environmental restoration efforts.
Supreme Court decision scales back cost, coverage of healthcare law
Noam N. Levey @ latimes.com
WASHINTON – Fewer Americans will likely get health insurance over the next decade under President Obama’s healthcare law as a result of the Supreme Court’s decision to limit it, according to a new analysis of the landmark ruling.
Gov. Jerry Brown Passes Campaign Finance Law Spurred By San Bernardino County Supervisor, Assemblyman
Joe Nelson and Neil Nisperos @ sbsun.com
Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law Tuesday a bill that will allow the state Fair Political Practices Commission to enforce new campaign finance rules in San Bernardino County.
Obama Monologues Economic Plan In New Campaign Ad
Kim Geiger @ latimes.com
President Obama is the star of a new campaign ad, a monologue in which he outlines the "choice between two very different plans for our country."
Oakland Council Members May Face Off
Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross @ sfgate.com
Oakland City Councilman Ignacio De La Fuente plans to ditch the Fruitvale district seat he's held for the last 20 years and will instead challenge Councilwoman Rebecca Kaplan for her at-large seat in November.
SD Unified to float new bond on Nov. ballot
The San Diego school district is counting on voters to approve a property tax in November to generate $2.8 billion in local funds at a time when state education revenue is increasingly uncertain.
San Mateo County supes send half-cent sales tax increase to the November ballot
Bonnie Eslinger @ mercurynews.com
The San Mateo County Board of Supervisors voted 4-1 Tuesday to put a half-cent sales tax increase measure on the November ballot with hopes of grabbing an extra $60 million a year.
Gov. Jerry Brown Targets Latest Trends In Student Bullying
Gov. Jerry Brown targets new bullying trends
L.A. City Council Votes To Ban Pot Shops
Unable to rein in the hundreds of medical marijuana dispensaries that have cropped up across the nation's second-largest city, the Los Angeles City Council on Tuesday voted to ban pot shops outright until it has clearer guidance from the state's highest court.
The Caucus: Senate Republicans to Allow Votes on Tax Legislation
JENNIFER STEINHAUER @ nytimes.com
The Republicans' surprise move sets the stage for a showdown with serious political implications but probably not many practical consequences.
DA Won't Pursue Perjury Case Against Lee
District Attorney George Gascon's office said Tuesday that it will not investigate the allegations that Mayor Ed Lee committed perjury in his effort to oust suspended Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi for official misconduct.
California Appeals Court Sides With Multistate Firms On Taxes
Dan Walters @ blogs.sacbee.com
Multistate corporations scored a major victory Tuesday in their long-running legal battle with California tax authorities over how they are to be taxed, one that could cost the state treasury hundreds of millions of dollars.