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THE NOONER for July 20, 2012

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TWEET DU JOUR: @daveweigel - "Don't hyperventilate about the tragedy being "politicized." A congresswoman was shot in the head last year, and no law got passed."

DRIVING THE DAY: Beyond the shock, proponents and opponents of gun violence are asking how James Holmes, the Dark Knight shooter, acquired the weapons he used in last night's tragedy in Aurora, CO. Cue dueling press releases about how there is too much access to guns and that if someone had been armed in the theatre, the shooter could have been taken out.

POLL POSITION: I'll be candid that I was skeptical when I received the e-mail announcing a new poll conducted online by the California Business Roundtable and the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Heck, I'm skeptical about any poll these days, particularly those where there is not a human-to-human contact. Nevertheless, I think the datapoints are pretty interesting and, I would bet, not too far off from where likely voters really are.

  • Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
    • Strongly Yes: 20.2%
    • Somewhat Yes: 17.3%
    • Leaning Yes: 18.7%
    • Leaning No: 10.1%
    • Somewhat No: 5.4%
    • Strongly No: 23.6%
    • TOTAL YES: 56.2%
    • TOTAL NO: 39.2%
  • Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 7.9%
    • Somewhat Yes: 13.6%
    • Leaning Yes: 29.5%
    • Leaning No: 20.0%
    • Somewhat No: 5.7%
    • Strongly No: 7.9%
    • TOTAL YES: 51.0%
    • TOTAL NO: 33.5%
  • Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 23.2%
    • Somewhat Yes: 18.2%
    • Leaning Yes: 18.6%
    • Leaning No: 10.3%
    • Somewhat No: 7.0%
    • Strongly No: 11.6%
    • TOTAL YES: 60.0%
    • TOTAL NO: 28.9%
  • Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver's History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 16.5%
    • Somewhat Yes: 18.7%
    • Leaning Yes: 24.0%
    • Leaning No: 10.7%
    • Somewhat No: 6.1%
    • Strongly No: 11.9%
    • TOTAL YES: 59.3%
    • TOTAL NO: 28.7%
  • Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 19.7%
    • Somewhat Yes: 11.8%
    • Leaning Yes: 14.1%
    • Leaning No: 10.7%
    • Somewhat No: 7.1%
    • Strongly No: 28.9%
    • TOTAL YES: 45.5%
    • TOTAL NO: 46.7%
  • Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 49.3%
    • Somewhat Yes: 20.2%
    • Leaning Yes: 18.7%
    • Leaning No: 3.6%
    • Somewhat No: 1.8%
    • Strongly No: 1.0%
    • TOTAL YES: 88.2%
    • TOTAL NO: 6.4%
  • Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 23.1%
    • Somewhat Yes: 23.4%
    • Leaning Yes: 25.3%
    • Leaning No: 7.3%
    • Somewhat No: 4.5%
    • Strongly No: 7.2%
    • TOTAL YES: 71.7%
    • TOTAL NO: 19.0%
  • Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 27.2%
    • Somewhat Yes: 19.6%
    • Leaning Yes: 18.1%
    • Leaning No: 10.1%
    • Somewhat No: 7.6%
    • Strongly No: 6.2%
    • TOTAL YES: 64.9%
    • TOTAL NO: 23.9%
  • Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 7.2%
    • Somewhat Yes: 10.5%
    • Leaning Yes: 17.3%
    • Leaning No: 12.1%
    • Somewhat No: 14.0%
    • Strongly No: 28.1%
    • TOTAL YES: 35.0%
    • TOTAL NO: 54.2%
  • Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.
    • Strongly Yes: 18.4%
    • Somewhat Yes: 14.0%
    • Leaning Yes: 23.0%
    • Leaning No: 9.1%
    • Somewhat No: 5.4%
    • Strongly No: 12.8%
    • TOTAL YES: 55.4%
    • TOTAL NO: 27.2%
  • Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.
    • Strongly Yes: 19.7%
    • Somewhat Yes: 16.0%
    • Leaning Yes: 19.9%
    • Leaning No: 10.6%
    • Somewhat No: 4.2%
    • Strongly No: 6.8%
    • TOTAL YES: 55.7%
    • TOTAL NO: 21.5%

Remember, on that last one that "yes means no," and the lines would not be redrawn.

[n=812 self-declared likely voters with weighting; July 16-17, 2012, English only | CrosstabsWhat the respondents saw]

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CD30: Is the choice between -ermans truly interesting, but irrelevant? I'll let you be the judge. Here's the analysis of congressional votes since 2007 by OpenCongress.org, which finds that they vote together 97% of the time, and both vote with the caucus 95% of the time. 

OFF MESSAGE: "Lawmakers gave raises worth $4.6 million annually to more than 1,000 of their aides before cutting the pay of most other state workers, newly released records show." [Patrick McGreevy and Michael J. Mishak @ LAT]

$$$: SEIU Local 1000 comes in with $500,000 against Proposition 32 ("Paycheck")

TURNING THE CORNER: California adds net 38,300 jobs and unemployment drops 0.1% to 10.7%. Over the last year, a net 279,100 jobs have been added, even while 35,700 government jobs have been shed

NOT GIVING UP: @FPPC_Chair - "With paid political bloggers, we need to force the disclosure issue into the light of day."

Again, I'm totally against forcing bloggers (or whatever you want to call people like me) to file paperwork with the FPPC, but also encourage everyone to voluntarily disclose any payments they receive.

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Politicians Act As If They Live In Isolated Bubbles
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Thirty-six years ago, during the early stages of a young Jerry Brown's first governorship, actor John Travolta starred in a made-for-TV movie called "The Boy in the Plastic Bubble." Existential coincidence?

California Dems Want Same-sex Marriage In Party Platform
blog.sfgate.com
California Dems want same-sex marriage in party platform

Latino Legislators Back Illegal Immigrant's Bid To Practice Law
latimesblogs.latimes.com
California lawmakers support illegal immigrant's quest to practice law

Presidential candidates put politics on hold in wake of shooting
mercurynews.com
The deadly shooting spree in Colorado consumed the presidential campaign Friday, sidetracking a bitter political contest with a tragedy that at least temporarily brought the candidates together in common purpose.

For Republicans, Every Day Brings New Reason To Oppose Tax Hikes
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

Sales Tax Increase Plan Moves Closer To Ballot For Sacramento Residents
Ryan Lillis @
sacbee.com
The Sacramento City Council moved forward Thursday with placing a sales tax increase on the November ballot.

Undocumented Immigrant's Law License Bid Backed By California State Attorney General
Howard Mintz @
contracostatimes.com
In legal papers, Kamala Harris supports Sergio Garcia, law school grad whose case is tied up in California Supreme Court

CA Dems to hammer on Romney's economic policies
Micaela Massimino @
blogs.sacbee.com
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is heading back to California in the next few days to pick up some campaign cash, as is President Barack Obama, which David Siders details in this Capitol Alert post. Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and state Attorney General Kamala Harris are making use of those Bay Area appearances, hosting a press conference call today that's billed as highlighting the contrasts between Romney's and Obama's economic policies.

Long Wait Before Transit Upgrades Start
MAX TAVES @
online.wsj.com
The $4.7 billion approved by the California legislature for construction of the state's high-speed rail system included more than $900 million for Bay Area transit investments. But it will likely be years before the region's commuters and economy get much of a lift.

Top-paid California Legislative Employees Get Pay Raises
Torey Van Oot and Jim Sanders @
sacbee.com
As California lawmakers slashed funding for social services and state workers this spring, some of the Legislature's top-paid staff saw the size of their own salaries grow.

San Francisco: Wife Says Neighbor Offered To Line Up Political Heavy Hitters Against Mirkarimi
Local @
contracostatimes.com
In San Francisco Ethics Commission hearing, Eliana Lopez testifies that neighbor Ivory Madison offered to get help from Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and state Attorney General Kamala Harris

Battle Over Genetically Engineered Food Heading To Voters
Marc Lifsher @
latimes.com
California could become the first state to require labels on genetically modified, or GMO, food products. Firms on both sides are gearing up for campaigns.

San Mateo County now may ask voters to approve a half-cent sales tax increase
Bonnie Eslinger @
mercurynews.com
Seven weeks after voters rejected two of its tax measures, the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday will consider asking them to approve a half-cent sales tax increase in the Nov. 6 election.

New-Vehicle Indicator Rises Sharply In California
Mark Glover @
sacbee.com
New-vehicle registrations statewide rose 27.4 percent in this year's second quarter compared with the year-ago period, according to the latest report by the Sacramento-based California New Car Dealers Association.

Lawmakers Call For Answers On Biowatch Security System
David Willman, Washington Bureau @
latimes.com
Democratic and Republican leaders call for answers to questions a Los Angeles Times report has raised about BioWatch, the nation's system for detecting biological terrorist attacks.

Pelosi: I'll Release My Tax Returns When I Run For President
Ian Swanson @
thehill.com
Pelosi on Thursday defended that position, and chastised the media for focusing on the tax-return issue instead of other issues like jobs and the looming expiration of the Bush-era tax rates.

S.F. Civil Grand Jury Slams Restaurant Health Care Surcharges
Barbara Grady @
sfpublicpress.org
San Francisco’s civil grand jury on Thursday chastised many of the city’s restaurants for profiting from surcharges they add to customers’ bills under the name of paying for health care and recommended that the city ban the practice.

San Bernardino May Need At Least One Year To Emerge From Bankruptcy
Andrew Edwards @
sbsun.com
The next step in the city's move toward filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection will be to prepare a short-term budget that will almost certainly call for a round of layoffs.

State Board Tells Districts Transitional Kindergarten Is A Must
Kathryn Baron @
edsource.org
Probably the strongest indication of how the State Board of Education would vote on waiver requests from nine school districts seeking to delay the start of Transitional Kindergarten came from the districts themselves; not a single representative showed up to even try to argue their case.

The Caucus: Campaign Videos Turn to Mocking Candidates
MICHAEL D. SHEAR @
nytimes.com
The 2012 presidential campaign has become a battlefield of mocking, rhetorical missiles, many of them delivered in the form of cheap, quickly produced videos.

Bill to curtail outsourcing blocked in Senate
Lisa Mascaro @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- Continuing the attack on Mitt Romney’s leadership at Bain Capital, Democrats in the Senate tried to advance legislation Thursday that would end loopholes for companies that relocate overseas, and use the savings for a 20% tax break on businesses that bring operations back to the United States.

Fearless Forecasters Of All Stripes Agree It’s Obama « Calbuzz
calbuzz.com
Astrology News Service, the non-profit industry organ of the responsible astrological community, has just published an interview with Nina Gryphon, a Stanford-educated practitioner who’s done a study analyzing planetary movements and alignments for every presidential race of the last 132 years.