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THE NOONER for July 19, 2012

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Random geekery about CD30 (Berman v. Sherman):

  • Voter participation: Congressional: 95,833 of 370,952 registered voters (25.8%)
  • Voter participation: Presidential: 73,093 of 370,952 registered voters (19.7%)
  • Cross-over: It appears Republicans crossed-over to support either Berman or Sherman:
    • Total votes for GOP presidential candidates: 29,800 (40.8% of 73,093 presidential votes cast - 15.1% above registration)
    • Total votes for Obama, the only Dem presidential candidate: 43,293 (59.2% of 73,093 presidential votes cast - 11.3% above registration)
    • Total votes for GOP congressional candidates: 21,390 (22.3% of 95,833 congressional votes cast - 3.5% above registration)
    • Total votes for Democratic congressional candidates: 72,467 (75.6% of 95,833 congressional votes cast - 27.7% above registration)
  • What Howard Berman needs, assuming voters that cast votes for candidates other than -ermans (GOP, Green) in June split evenly between the two (or don't vote):
    • with 40% turnout, Berman needs 59% of new voters
    • with 50% turnout, Berman needs 55% of new voters
    • with 60% turnout, Berman needs 54% of new voters
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CD33: This time, Waxman's giving it his all [Alex Isanstadt @ Politico]

AD18: Following Rob Bonta's fortune of drawing national attention among Filipinos via PRI's The World on Tuesday, he gets another bump with the endorsement of Assemblymember Sandre Swanson.

PROP 32: Joe Garofoli looks at the debate over paycheck protection/deception.

PICKING UP: Car sales +27.4% compared to Q2 2011; Sacto regional housing prices up, foreclosures down 

WHERE'S THE PARTY: David Lasdon makes projections under scenarios for November turnout and the impact on hot races.

NYT/CBS POLL: Romney moves to 45-43 lead (47-46 with leaners); Obama favorables drop to 36% (from 42% in April) [story | poll]

LIBERALS NEED NOT CRY: Nate Silver still has Obama with a 67.9% chance of winning and a projected popular vote of 50.8% for Obama.

However, as Mike Allen notes in today's Playbook, if Obama's favorable rating really is down to 36% and not just a polling quirk, it's a huge problem.

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown Signs Rail Bill, Avoids Central Valley Opponents
David Siders @
sacbee.com
It took the promise of nearly $2 billion in rail upgrades in the Bay Area and Los Angeles for Gov. Jerry Brown to secure the Legislature's support for high-speed rail, so it was there that the Democratic governor celebrated on Wednesday.

Assembly Awards Pay Raises To More Than 100 Staffers
Michael J. Mishak @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The California Assembly has awarded raises to roughly 150 legislative staffers this year, even as lawmakers voted to cut pay for most state workers to help balance the state budget.

UC Regents Endorse Governor's Tax Plan
Local @
mercurynews.com
University of California regents on Wednesday voted to support Gov. Jerry Browns proposed sales and income-tax hikes and agreed to freeze tuition if the measure passes in November. They also raised a number of graduate student fees, including a 35 percent hike for some nursing students.

Mega-fundraiser For California Candidates Aims To Boost GOP In House
Michael Doyle @
sacbee.com
House Republicans and their deep-pocketed allies will hold a Capitol Hill mega-fundraiser tonight to aid eight California congressional candidates.

UC board endorses tax initiative, freezes tuition
TERENCE CHEA, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
A University of California committee has voted to freeze undergraduate tuition this fall and endorse Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative.

Ca Senate Announces Plan To Freeze Pay -- After Awarding Raises
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg announced plans Wednesday for a one-year pay freeze for Senate employees, but the move comes in the wake of a recent pay hike for hundreds of the chamber's aides.

More Than Half Of Senate Staffers Received Raises In Last 12 Months
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The state Senate has provided raises of up to 5% to 559 of its legislative employees in the last year, even while the state was grappling with a financial crisis that resulted in pay cuts for most state workers starting...

California's Funding Mechanism Is Fundamentally Cockeyed
George Skelton @
latimes.com
Local governments' fiscal crises have many contributing factors, but the systemic issues go way beyond a bad economy, pension liabilities and corruption.

UC Regents link tuition hikes to Gov. Brown's tax measure
Larry Gordon @
latimes.com
University of California leaders endorse Proposition 30 but warn of tuition increases of 20% if Gov. Jerry Brown's tax measure fails in November.

CalPERS Tells California Cities To Keep Eye On Pension Terms| Reuters
Jim Christie @
reuters.com
California's cities should learn how to keep their pension costs in check instead of blaming the California Public Employees' Retirement System for their problems, some of the pension fund's board member said on Wednesday.

Why California Democrats Protect Sex Abuser Teachers
Patrick Range McDonald @
laweekly.com
State Sen. Alex Padilla of Los Angeles had every reason to hope that the 11 members of the obscure but powerful state Assembly Education Committee in Sacramento would back his new legislation, Senate Bill 1530, designed to let public schools more easily fire teachers who commit sexual, physically abusive or drug-related acts with their students.

Democrats call for legislative action on presidential tax returns
Morgan Little @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- A pair of congressional brothers sought Wednesday to rally support for greater transparency among presidential candidates, particularly in regard to the hot topic around Washington this week – tax returns.

Flaws Found In L.A. College District's Search For Inspector General
Carla Rivera @
latimes.com
Review of Los Angeles Community College District's selection process for an inspector general to oversee a $6-billion campus construction program cites numerous problems.

Calif. Prop. 32 In Unions' Crosshairs
Joe Garofoli @
sfgate.com
The stated intention of Proposition 32 on the November ballot is to "ban both corporate and union contributions to candidates." But analysts say that while it could dry up organized labor's primary funding source, it contains a loophole that will allow corporate interests to continue doling out campaign donations.

Sacramento To Host California's Final Fracking Workshop
latimesblogs.latimes.com
California environmental officials will host a public meeting on hydraulic fracturing in Sacramento next week, capping a months-long series of workshops aimed at shaping regulations for the controversial method of oil extraction. The meeting will take place at the headquarters...

Major Fundraiser To Benefit California GOP Candidates | Mcclatchy
Michael Doyle, McClatchy Newspapers @
mcclatchydc.com
WASHINGTON — House Republicans and their deep-pocketed allies will hold a Capitol Hill mega-fundraiser Thursday night aiding eight California congressional candidates.

Justin Bieber Chase: Prosecutors May Test New Anti-paparazzi Law
Kimi Yoshino @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
The Los Angeles City Attorney's office is considering filing the first case under an anti-paparazzi law against a photographer who pursued Justin Bieber during a high-speed freeway chase.

Romney Camp: 'Not True' He Paid $0 In Taxes
Alexander Burns @
politico.com
With Mitt Romney declining to release additional years of personal tax returns, the Obama campaign and an array of commentators have floated the possibility that Romney may not have paid any taxes at all in one year or another.

Congressional leaders shy from releasing their own income tax returns
Lisa Mascaro @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON – A top Democratic leader said Mitt Romney’s reluctance to release a fuller accounting of his income tax returns makes him “the most secretive candidate for president in modern history,” but other congressional leaders showed little interest in personally being held to the same disclosure standard.

Head to Head: Should Congress approve the DISCLOSE Act on campaign gifts?
sacbee.com
THE ISSUE: A U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2010 allowed corporations, unions and other groups to spend unlimited amounts on political campaigns. The DISCLOSE Act (S. 3369) would require organizations to report donations of $10,000 or more to the Federal Election Commission within 24 hours starting in 2013.

San Bernardino declares fiscal emergency, approves bankruptcy
sbsun.com
The City Council took what several members called the hardest decision of their professional lives Wednesday, formally declaring a state of fiscal emergency and directing staff to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection.

Sacramento Area Home Prices Rise Slightly - Business - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Bee file, 2012. Workers frame a home at Tapestri Square at 20th and T streets in midtown, as new-home sales start to rise. From left are Jose Vega, Ignacio Picazo, Jorge Magaña and Esteban Hernandez of Gai Kirkegaard Construction.