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THE NOONER for June 5, 2012

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"WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT," the gay marriage decision is heading to the Supremes after the Ninth Circuit declined en banc review. [decision, with three dissenters and two responses, fighting over President Obama's position on gay marriage]

Will Andy Pugno be 1-1 or 0-2 today?

RESULTS: Results have been added to all district pages, and I've also built a clean and fast results page. Secretary of State updates every ten minutes and, if all goes well on the interwebs, these results will as well. Look for updates after 8pm PDT.

ELECTION NIGHT LIVEBLOG: I will be live blogging Election Night beginning at 8pm PDT. Visit www.aroundthecapitol.com/live/ now to sign up for an e-mail reminder before the event. 

Rock stars expected to stop by our virtual election night roundtable to offer their insights on results include Paul Mitchell, Matt Rexroad, Mike Madrid, Carla Marinucci, Christopher Cabaldon, Jon Fleischman, Lisa Vanderbruggen, Andrew Acosta, Anthony York, and John Myers. You'll be critical to the live blog as well, and your comments will be shared with other viewers.

Spread the word by visiting the live blog page and clicking the Facebook "like" button!

ABSENTEE BALLOT REPORTS by Political Data Inc. and Redistricting Partners

RUNDOWN: 2,225,868 ballots in; 29% of absentees have voted; 47% of likely absentees (3/4+new) are in.

#ELECTORATEFAIL - One thing is for sure, the Golden State won't be setting records for democratic participation today. The Field Poll projects that 6 million ballots will be cast, which is 25.3% of the citizen voting age population and 35% of those registered. That's one half the share that voted in 1972's primary when I was gestating.

Paul Mitchell's team offers an even more pessimistic view (click the link for a district-by-district projection): 

"Our models indicate a likely range of 28%-30% turnout in the 2012 primary, for an approximate total of just over 5 million voters. We anticipate a PAV turnout rate of 40-41% and a Poll Voter turnout rate of just over 22%. This range in turnout varies widely by district, dependent primarily on the area’s Absentee voting population and historic rate of poll voting."

Paul notes that this is a new way of modeling turnout--"an interesting attempt to take historic absentee voting rates and convert those to a statewide and district level turnout model. This is a beta version, so don't stake your whole GOTV effort on it!"

I was going to post fundraising numbers today, but I have to complete two agendas for my boards. And, yes, I am taking a vacation day. 

Thanks for all the tips, support, and feedback throughout this very hectic primary season!

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Federal Independent Expenditures

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Expenditure Amount Received Date Report Date
Citizens for an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Slate cards $23,595 05/29/2012 06/04/2012

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
American Federation Of State, County & Municipal Employees - Ca People (afscme Ca People) Independent Expenditure Committee Shirley Weber (i) (Support) $10,000 06/02/2012 06/04/2012
American Federation Of State, County & Municipal Employees - Ca People (afscme Ca People) Independent Expenditure Committee Shirley Weber (i) (Support) $13,727 05/30/2012 06/04/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Cheryl Brown (Support) $21,722 05/30/2012 06/04/2012
California Black Political Action Committee Joel Young (Support) $10,930 05/30/2012 06/04/2012
California Charter Schools Association Advocates Independent Expenditure Committee Brian C. Johnson (Support) $1,940 05/31/2012 06/04/2012
California Charter Schools Association Advocates Independent Expenditure Committee Brian C. Johnson (Support) $5,187 06/01/2012 06/04/2012
California Dental Association Independent Expenditure Pac Ian Calderon (Support) $5,000 06/03/2012 06/04/2012
California Republican Assembly Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Dahle (Support) $7,500 06/01/2012 06/04/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Richard Roth (Oppose) $3,358 06/04/2012 06/04/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Charlotte Svolos (Support) $1,000 06/04/2012 06/04/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Ricardo Benitez (Support) $1,415 06/04/2012 06/04/2012
California Teamsters Public Affairs Council, Public Affairs Nathan Fletcher (Support) $1,980 05/23/2012 06/04/2012
Edvoice Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Johnson (Support) $488 06/04/2012 06/04/2012
Martinez For Assembly 2012, Protecting Families For Michele Michele Martinez (Support) $1,000 06/04/2012 06/04/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $1,588 06/02/2012 06/04/2012
Roth For State Senate 2012, Fund For A Working Majority To Support General Richard Richard D. Roth (Support) $14,000 06/03/2012 06/04/2012

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Assembly Passes Bill To Cut Commute Time From Sf To Sacramento
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Maybe it's just coincidence that it was proposed by a San Francisco lawmaker, maybe not, but legislation designed to ease the commute from San Francisco to the Capitol easily cleared the Assembly recently.

Field Poll Predicting Low Turnout -- Perhaps A Record Low -- In Today's California Presidential Primary
David Siders @
sacbee.com
Election clerk Melvin Red places vote-by-mail ballots in a box at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters office Monday. The Field Poll is predicting that only 35 percent of California's registered voters will cast ballots in today's primary.

Pension Reform: Dead Until 2014 If Legislature Doesn’t Act Now? - Oc Watchdog : The Orange County Register
taxdollars.ocregister.com
If the Legislature doesn’t decide to place a pension reform measure on the ballot by June 28 — a bit more than three weeks from today — it’s essentially dead in the water until 2014, reformers are saying.

California's Primary Election Stakes Are Minimal
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Primary elections are, by their nature, not conclusive political events, but rather stage-setters for the real showdown in November. For the political cognoscenti, however, this particular primary carries some unusual interest because it's a first test of two major structural changes.

Election Day: Legislative Races To Watch
latimesblogs.latimes.com
On politics in the Golden State

Like Shaq, Jerry Brown phones voters in L.A. DA's race
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown, who has limited his political activity ahead of the Tuesday primary election to a handful of candidate endorsements and non-endorsement statements of support, was featured in a robotic telephone call today in the Los Angeles County district attorney's race.

Estimating Common Core Costs
toped.svefoundation.org
The adoption of the Common Core standards comes at tough time for districts that have cut teacher training days and textbook purchases to stave off further layoffs. But a new study for the Fordham Institute co-authored by a University of San Francisco political science professor concludes that the transition to the new standards in the next few years need not be onerous.

Video
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Nancy McFadden, a senior adviser to Gov. Jerry Brown, could be found the other day pushing herself around the governor's office on a knee scooter, green with a basket up front.

Brown Seeks To Reduce Environmental Protections For Bullet Train
Ralph Vartabedian @
latimes.com
With legal challenges mounting, governor circulates legislation designed to diminish the possibility foes could stop the project with an environmental lawsuit.

Endorsements 2012: Recommendations of The Bee's editorial board for today's ballot
sacbee.com
Today's election is the first with "top two" voting. That means that, in legislative and congressional races, voters cast ballots for a single candidate, and the top two vote getters, regardless of party, proceed to a November runoff.

Billions In Court-ordered Debt Goes Uncollected
californiawatch.org
As the judicial branch challenges state budget cuts recently proposed by Gov. Jerry Brown, some critics are saying the courts could do more to address a fiscal problem in their own house – about $7.5 billion in delinquent court-ordered debt. 

Bitterly divided Wisconsin decides fate of governor
Scott Bauer @
mercurynews.com
MADISON, Wis. -- After a brief but bruising campaign that followed a more than yearlong fight over union rights and the state's cash-strapped budget, voters in a narrowly divided Wisconsin began casting ballots Tuesday on whether to recall Gov.

Jerry Brown administration defines 'very top' California state workers due for bigger pay cut
Jon Ortiz @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Association of California State Supervisors is reporting on its blog that Gov. Jerry Brown's administration has narrowed down which state workers' pay will be cut by more than 5 percent in the 2012-13 fiscal year:

Out-of-state Colleges Entice Californians
Stephen Ceasar @
latimes.com
As budget cuts push up tuition and limit enrollment at the UC and Cal State systems, colleges in nearby states put more effort into attracting students from California.

The Redistricting Report for 06-05-12
Tony Hicks @
aroundthecapitol.com
What if California reformed its elections -- and nobody showed up?

California Cuts Some Alcohol Taxes 94% - Jan Norman On Small Business : The Orange County Register
jan.ocregister.com
Alcoholic beverage taxes on flavored malt beverages, such as hard lemonade and flavored wines, has been cut to 20 cents a gallon from $3.30 because of a recent state appeals court ruling.

Appeals court sets up Supreme Court ruling on Proposition 8
Maura Dolan @
latimes.com
A federal appeals court Tuesday rejected an appeal of February's ruling that overturned Proposition 8, a move that is likely to send the debate over same-sex marriage to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Proposition 8 Ruling Opens Door To Supreme Court Test
Amanda Covarrubias @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Southern California -- this just in

Gay marriage ban backers look to US Supreme Court
LISA LEFF, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
The sponsors of California's same-sex marriage ban said Tuesday they will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to review a landmark appellate court ruling that struck down the law as unconstitutional.

Bid For Part-time Legislature Shuts Down Paid Signature Gathering
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Hurting financially, an initiative campaign to convert the Legislature to part-time has shut down its paid signature-gathering effort, essentially killing any hopes of submitting petitions to the state by a July 2 deadline.