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THE NOONER for May 24, 2012

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I'd like to welcome the 332 folks that have joined our little Nooner party since May 1. I'd like to thank everyone who responds to each day's content and, if I fail to respond, I apologize. Some days I get buried in e-mail and I have a pretty busy day job. If you haven't filled out the super simple Nooner survey, please do. Finally, I invite you to become part of the super special subscribers club. Some surprises for subscribers are coming soon.

ABSENTEE BALLOT REPORTS by Political Data Inc. and Redistricting Partners

PPIC POLL (May 14-20, n=2,002 residents):

  • CA Right direction/wrong direction: 30-63%
  • Gov Brown job approval (Approve/Disapprove/DK): 39-36-24%
  • Budget solution through (Spending cuts/Tax increases/Mix/Debt): 35-13-44-2% (likely voters)
  • Gov's compromise tax measure (Yes/No/DK): 56-38-7% (likely voters)
  • Prop. 28 (term limits): 62-29%
  • Prop. 29 (tobacco tax): 53-42%
  • Barack Obama (Fav/Unfav/DK): 52-45-4% (likely voters)
  • Mitt Romney (Fav/Unfav/DK): 40-52-9% (likely voters)
  • Gay marriage: 56-37% (likely voters)

TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT: With Los Angeles reporting its raw count yesterday, the governor's compromise tax measure moves on to the random sample stage. The random sample is due from counties on July 6. However, if sufficient samples are not turned in by June 28 (E-131 days), the measure is kicked to November 2014. If a full count is required, which is possible in a measure that is going to need ~74% validity in the sample to avoid a full tally (assuming ~1.2m raw sigs), the measure won't qualify for November.

County election officials are already conducting a random sample (3% or 500, whichever is greater) of signatures on five other measures. For Los Angeles County, that means 1,810,824 signatures are sitting in the elections office, and 54,345 have to be validated as part of the random sample. That's not an easy task to accomplish in the next twenty-five business days. I wonder if initiative samples are "first come, first served."

The Legislature can't move the requirement that initiatives must qualify 131 days in advance of the election, as that is in the constitution (Article 2, Section 8).

UNLIKE: With Facebook off 15% from the $38 offering price, does that reduce the likelihood of insiders selling and call into question the revenue assumptions included in the budget? The LAO assumed that the stock would open at 38 and rise to 45 over the next six months, bringing in $2.1 billion over the next 13 months. The lower stock price likely delays insiders from selling and, if they do sell, the capital gains are significantly less at $32/share than $45/share.

REPLENISH: The California Senior Advocates League IE committee yesterday reported receiving $153k from the California Now IE Committee. California Now is funded by real estate, health care and tobacco interests, which apparently really like senior citizens.

SACBEE Edit: Lawmakes Saps Trust With City Bankruptcy Bill

WRONG BOX? The report below from the Defending the Republic PAC filing in expenditure for Leroy Ornellas in SD05 is likely an error. The committee is funded by JobsPAC and the Small Business Action Committee, and reported an expenditure against Ornellas on May 8.

CALL ME MAYBE: Ladies, look out if you are handed this business card.

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Federal Independent Expenditures

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Expenditure Amount Received Date Report Date
ICPurple, Inc. Chad Condit (Support) Media Buy $20,978 05/23/2012 05/23/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers for Jobs Bob Dutton (Support) Media Buy $18,954 05/23/2012 05/23/2012
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Campaign Lit/Mail $21,379 05/23/2012 05/23/2012

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Raul Bocanegra (Support) $10,913 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Rod Wright (Support) $53,480 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Alliance For California's Tomorrow, A California Business Coalition Rod Wright (Support) $76,790 05/23/2012 05/23/2012
Alliance To Get California Working Political Action Committee Jim Frazier (Support) $22,027 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Alliance For Progress And Education, An Alliance Of Professionals, Employers And Small Business Richard Alarcon (Oppose) $33,668 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Hannah-beth Jackson (Support) $0 00/00/0000 05/23/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Rudy Ramirez (Oppose) $27,404 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Alliance, A Coalition Of Consumer Attorneys And Conservationists. Hannah-beth Jackson (Support) $34,681 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Rod Wright (Support) $18,066 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Charter Schools Association Advocates Independent Expenditure Committee Brian C. Johnson (Support) $2,505 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Richard Roth (Oppose) $45,060 05/16/2012 05/23/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Steve Clute (Support) $35,185 05/16/2012 05/23/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Marty Block (Oppose) $63,355 05/17/2012 05/23/2012
California Teachers Association Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Johnson (Oppose) $18,493 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Rudy Bermudez (Oppose) $20,092 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Rudy Bermudez (Oppose) $20,815 05/23/2012 05/23/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Thomas Rico Oller (Support) $9,453 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Californians Allied For Patient Protection Independent Expenditure Account Candidate Jennifer Ong (Support) $19,803 05/23/2012 05/23/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability And Responsibility, Sponsored By Dentists, Physicians, Health Care Providers, Realtors, School Employees And Construction Trades Organizations Brian Maienschein (Support) $40,919 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability Sponsored By Dentists, School Employees, Health Care Providers, Correctional Officers And Construction Trades Organizations Leslie Daigle (Support) $20,781 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Californians For Fiscal Accountability Sponsored By Dentists, School Employees, Health Care Providers, Correctional Officers And Construction Trades Organizations Greg Kraft (Support) $13,305 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Adam Gray (Support) $21,779 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Rudy Ramirez (Support) $18,800 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Cdf Firefighters Issues Committee (Support) $5,435 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Joe Baca (Support) $17,440 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Jerry Hill (Support) $31,225 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Defending The Republic Pac Leroy Ornellas (Support) $8,950 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Edvoice Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Johnson (Support) $12,626 05/21/2012 05/23/2012
Edvoice Independent Expenditure Committee Brian Johnson (Support) $19,688 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Golden California Committee, Sponsored By The California State Council Of Service Employees International Union Tim Donnelly (Oppose) $12,267 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Golden California Committee, Sponsored By The California State Council Of Service Employees International Union Bill Jahn (Support) $8,178 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Tom Daly (Support) $7,094 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Jobspac, A Bi-partisan Coalition Of California Employers Susan Eggman (Support) $4,182 05/22/2012 05/23/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $1,946 05/19/2012 05/23/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $8,335 05/17/2012 05/23/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Steve Clute (Oppose) $65,502 05/10/2012 05/23/2012
Spirit Of Democracy California Leslie Daigle (Support) $49,235 05/10/2012 05/23/2012

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Michelle Rhee's Studentsfirst Moves $2 Million Into Pac
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
StudentsFirst, the education advocacy group formed by former Washington D.C. public schools chancellor Michelle Rhee, has poured $2 million into a campaign committee created to influence state legislative races ahead of the June 5 primary.

AM Alert: Likely voters still back Jerry Brown's tax measure
sacbee.com
VIDEO: Dan Walters explains in his latest video report why independent voters have been getting a lot of campaign mail. California's likely voters remain supportive of Gov. Jerry Brown's ballot initiative to raise taxes even as his approval rating has dipped, as David Siders reports.

Report: Ending Corporate Tax Breaks Would Help Trim Budget Deficit
latimesblogs.latimes.com
As lawmakers begin to haggle over the state budget, the California Tax Reform Assn. said Wednesday that they need to eliminate $6 billion in tax breaks for large corporations. The association's report said taxing oil production, altering property tax assessments...

Approval Of Gov. Jerry Brown Slips In Public Opinion Poll
David Siders @
sacbee.com
The honeymoon is ending for Gov. Jerry Brown. For the first time in a major California poll since Brown took office, a plurality of likely voters disapproves of the job he is doing, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday.

Support For New California Tobacco Tax Drops
Steven Harmon @
mercurynews.com
Ubiquitous ad campaign by opponents of Proposition 29 creates doubt in voters minds, pollster says.

PPIC Survey Exposes CA Voters' Self-contradictions
calbuzz.com
California voters remain resolutely self-conflicted in the face of a $16-billion budget deficit and a pledge by the Legislature to institute automatic cutbacks if new revenues are not forthcoming: maaaybe they'll approve Gov. Jerry Brown's tax-hike measure, but if they should refuse they don’t want the spending cuts needed to balance the budget.

Sacto 9-1-1: Sacramento Bee, LA Times Sue To Force UC Disclosure Of Pepper Spray Officer Names
Sam Stanton @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Sacramento Bee and the Los Angeles Times filed suit today against the University of California Board of Regents in a bid to force the release of police officer names that have been kept secret from the public since last November's pepper-spray incident on the UC Davis campus.

Special-interest Spending Floods Cailfornia Races In New Political Landscape
Torey Van Oot @
sacbee.com
As federal super PACs continue to pour money into the presidential and congressional contests, state-level independent committees are spending big to influence the outcome in California's legislative races.

Pension initiative savings depend on uncertain salary provision
utsandiego.com
The $950 million in savings that Proposition B is projected to generate for San Diego taxpayers over the next three decades hinges entirely on the imposition of a five-year freeze on the portion of pay used to calculate pensions for current city workers.

Owners Owe Far More Than Homes Are Worth In Sacramento Area
Mark Glover @
sacbee.com
Homeowners in the Sacramento metropolitan area are underwater by $20.7 billion, according to a national study being released today by Seattle-based data company Zillow.

President Obama's Cash Crusade Gets Under Way
Carla Marinucci,Joe Garofoli @
sfgate.com
President Obama's 16-hour Bay Area fundraising whirlwind, which began Wednesday and is expected to net more than $4 million, confirms a sobering fact of the 2012 campaign: California voters with a checkbook in hand are...

Americans Elect, Promoting Third-party Candidates, Faces Internal Rebellion
californiawatch.org
Americans Elect – the innovative effort to jolt the political system with a third-party presidential candidate – is facing a democratic uprising of its own.

California Voters Support Reduced Drug Possession Penalties, Survey Says
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Backers of a measure that would reduce possession of small amounts of heroin, cocaine or methamphetamine from a felony to a misdemeanor released a survey that indicated up to 70% of likely voters statewide support the change.

Prop 29 Could Begin Push To Tax Specific Products And Services
Joel Fox @
foxandhoundsdaily.com
For a business community wary of regulations and taxes and fees that weigh down their trades, the fear of activists and legislators targeting taxes on products and services is a real one.

Egypt lines up to vote in its first free presidential election
Jeffrey Fleishman @
latimes.com
Two days of balloting mark a historic contest between political Islam and secularists connected to the Mubarak regime. Egyptians marvel at the experience.

Should state raise tobacco taxes for research, cessation programs?
sacbee.com
So-called "sin taxes," on items such as alcohol and tobacco that place burdens on the larger society, have a long history. Their purpose is to moderate or discourage the use of the product – and, today, to recoup some of the costs to society for law enforcement and health care related to their consumption.

Silicon Valley supporters cheer Obama's embrace of gay marriage
Christi Parsons @
latimes.com
SAN JOSE -- Hours after President Obama’s campaign launched a new video touting his record on gay rights, a group of Silicon Valley campaign supporters cheered him on for publicly embracing same-sex marriage.

California Judges Lobby Against Court Cuts In Brown's Deficit Fix
JUSTIN SCHECK @
online.wsj.com
A group of California judges this week began lobbying against Gov. Jerry Brown's proposed cuts to state courts, in a campaign led by the chief justice of the state's Supreme Court.

California Pension Funds Target Wal-Mart Board
Dale Kasler @
sacbee.com
Citing the retailer's Mexico bribery scandal, CalPERS is joining with other big shareholders trying to oust members of the Wal-Mart Stores Inc. board of directors.

13 Candidates Turn Up The Heat In Inland Congressional Race
Phil Willon @
latimes.com
Scorching rhetoric is the norm in the race. Ten Republicans, two Democrats and one independent are on the ballot in the newly created district.

AM Alert
Micaela Massimino @
blogs.sacbee.com
California's likely voters remain supportive of Gov. Jerry Brown's ballot initiative to raise taxes even as his approval rating has dipped, as David Siders reports

Requests for ballot measures go nowhere
utsandiego.com
When San Diego residents have an idea they think could improve their local government, Council Policy 21 tells how they can get the proposal before voters.