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THE NOONER for May 22, 2012

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ONLY EIGHT HOURS LEFT TO GET YOUR ELECTION CONTEST PICKS IN!

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As I mentioned yesterday, I spent the weekend in the CD02, is one of the most interesting congressional primaries in the state. It's the Democrat version of the Republican CD08, with twelve candidates running for an open seat currently represented by Lynn Woolsey and Mike Thompson. Woolsey is retiring, while Thompson was the benefactor of the perhaps the best draw in redistricting, getting a compact district covering parts of Napa, Sonoma and Lake counties. Running are 7 Democrat, 1 Republican, 1 Green, and 2 No Party Preference candidates.

Assemblymember Jared Huffman (D) is the strong favorite for first place. Three Democrats are aggresively competing for the second spot in the top two--Marin County supe Susan Adams, progressive author Norman Solomon, and the more moderate businesswoman Stacey Lawson. Other candidates are using the race to promote issues they deeply care about, such as marijuana legalization.

While officially neutral, the DCCC is hoping that Huffman wins, and that the other Democrats divide enough votes to allow Republican Dan Roberts capture the second spot. After all, the last thing the party wants is for Marin County, one of the Democratic ATMs, to be having a competitive congressional among Democrats in November. 

Roberts has put up $160,000 of his own money for the bid, and can be expected to capture most of the 24% "low water mark" for Republicans in the district. That leaves 76% for the other eleven candidates to split--on average of 6.9% per candidate! 

I project that Huffman will receive around 25% of the vote, leaving 50% for ten candidates to split. Each of the other top three Democrats are therefore likely fighting a futile case to capture the second spot with three running strong. Even if the Green and two NPP candidates only combine for 10% of the vote, Adams, Lawson or Solomon would have to get 59% of the remaining vote if Huffman and Roberts get in the neighborhood of 25%. I just don't see it happening, unless the support for Huffman is dramatically overstated.

POLIGEEK CANDY: Absentee return numbers now in two reports: City and County | Districts [Political Data Inc. and Redistricting Partners] 

AD13: Change those contest picks! Candidate Xochitl Paderes dropped her bid yesterday, following a barrage of negative attacks by JobsPAC. Since she stays on the ballot, I'll leave her as a candidate on ATC and in the contest for the Stockton-based district..

AD41: Victoria Rusnak kicks in another $80,000, for a total of $330,000, for her Assembly campaign. Has anyone told her that members of the Assembly make $95,291, and that the California Citizens Compensation Commission is considering cutting the pay by another $5,000? It's not like it's the Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board.

Rusnak is trying to edge out either Michael Cacciotti or Chris Holden for a top two spot in the Pasadena-centered district.

DOUBLE-DOWN: The California School Boards Association endorses both the governor's compromise tax measure and Molly Munger's initiative. Of course, if both pass, the conflicting provisions (personal income tax) of the one that gets the highest number of votes would prevail.

CAMPAIGN JUJUTSU: Pete Aguilar's campaign got a hold of outtakes of Gary Miller shooting a campaign commercial and sent it out as a fundraising piece. Miller responded by tweeting:

"Just saw the outtakes video! So funny I wanted to share. Check it out: garymillerforcongress.com Thanks Pete! Keep saying my name! #tcot #ca31"

INTERESTING: Assemblymember Roger Hernandez pleads not guilty to the DUI charges. The blood test came back at .08.

SPORTING THE GOATEE: Arnold talks with ET about his relationship with Maria. [h/t Shane Goldmacher]

BUDGET: Budget subcommittees dove into the details of the governor's revised budget yesterday and continue through this week. Budget subs are expected to wrap on Friday. Friday? Oh, yes, three day weekend, so legislators will be in town for a per diem session.

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: 

  • The IC Purple independent expenditure was for Chad Condit, not Chad Carlock (who is an attorney in Davis)
  • Wes Chesbro will easily win a third-and-final term in AD02. Damn, I've been here too long.
  • California Forward initiative is in random sample, not raw count.
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Federal Independent Expenditures

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Expenditure Amount Received Date Report Date
Spirit of Democracy America Paul Cook (Support) Television $17,137 05/21/2012 05/21/2012

 

State Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
American Federation Of State, County & Municipal Employees - Ca People (afscme Ca People) Independent Expenditure Committee Shirley Weber (i) (Support) $5,000 05/20/2012 05/21/2012
American Federation Of State, County & Municipal Employees - Ca People (afscme Ca People) Independent Expenditure Committee Shirley Weber (i) (Support) $5,000 05/19/2012 05/21/2012
California Alliance For Progress And Education, An Alliance Of Professionals, Employers And Small Business Richard Roth (Oppose) $20,750 05/19/2012 05/21/2012
California Apartment Association Independent Expenditure Committee Tom Daly (Support) $15,705 05/21/2012 05/21/2012
California Senior Advocates League Pac Joe Coto (Support) $35,820 05/18/2012 05/21/2012
Californians Allied For Patient Protection Independent Expenditure Account Candidate Tom Calderon (Support) $16,251 05/21/2012 05/21/2012
Cooperative Of American Physicians Independent Expenditure Committee Julio Perez (Oppose) $6,820 05/21/2012 05/21/2012
Lincoln Club Of Orange County State Pac, The Allan Mansoor (Support) $437 05/21/2012 05/21/2012
Martinez For Assembly 2012, Protecting Families For Michele Michele Martinez (Support) $1,945 05/21/2012 05/21/2012
Republican Party Of Orange County (state Account) Leslie Daigle (Oppose) $18,685 05/20/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $2,870 05/15/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Steve Clute (Oppose) $32,202 05/19/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Steve Clute (Oppose) $57,705 05/10/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $1,002 05/18/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $1,574 05/19/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Richard D. Roth (Support) $5,373 05/08/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For Senate 2012-sponsored By Nurses, School Employees, Health Care Givers And Public Employees, Californians For Accountability - Support Steve Clute (Oppose) $32,202 05/17/2012 05/21/2012
Roth For State Senate 2012, Fund For A Working Majority To Support General Richard Richard D. Roth (Support) $53,100 05/19/2012 05/21/2012
San Francisco Parks Alliance, Eligible 501(c)(3) Ie Report Coit Tower Policy (Oppose) $3,600 04/30/2012 05/21/2012
Vote Matters Joe Coto (Support) $17,750 05/20/2012 05/21/2012
Vote Matters Joe Coto (Support) $370 05/17/2012 05/21/2012
Vote Matters Joe Coto (Support) $60 05/19/2012 05/21/2012

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Captiol Alert: California fiscal analyst skeptical of Jerry Brown's education budget
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
It was a bizarre component of Gov. Jerry Brown's latest budget - despite fewer revenues than expected in January, the governor said the state actually owes more to schools under its complicated funding formula. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office says it may be wrong, not bizarre.

Immigrants Rally At California Capitol For Rights Of Domestic Workers
Stephen Magagnini @
sacbee.com
Immigrant Day team leader Zahra Billoo, right, tries to drum up support from Assemblyman Chris Norby, R-Fullerton, for proposals focused on immigrant issues. About 400 people rallied Monday at the Capitol in Sacramento.

Senate Approves Rules For Self-driving Cars In California
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
California would adopt rules of the road for self-driving vehicles under legislation approved by the state Senate today.

State Senate OKs Moratorium On University Executive Pay Raises
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Senate favors moratorium on university executive pay hikes

'mr. Ed' The Trojan Horse Kicks Off Fight To Kill Term Limits Initiative
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Opponents of a term limits measure on the June ballot kicked off a campaign tour today using a carved 10-foot "Trojan Horse" -- named Mr. Ed -- to spread their message that Proposition 28 is deceptive.

Governor, Legislators Could Face Pay Cut Like Other State Workers
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Governor, legislators could face pay cut like other state workers

CA Senate Passes Bill That Limits Salaries At Csu
Hannah Madans @
blogs.sacbee.com
The Senate Monday approved a bill to limit pay for California State University employees making more than $200,000 a year.

$172 Million In Property Values Unlawfully Lowered, D.a. Says
Shelby Grad @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
A former Los Angeles County property appraiser was taken into custody in Oregon on Monday, accused of falsifying documents and unlawfully lowering property values by $172 million on multimillion-dollar homes and businesses. Scott Schenter, 49, allegedly secured campaign contributions from...

California Senate Votes To Allow Self-driving Cars
Transportation @
mercurynews.com
California took a step toward becoming the second state in the nation to allow self-driven cars, such as those pioneered by Google, on its roads.

Pay Panel To Consider Salary Cut For Elected Officials, Member Says
Jim Sanders @
blogs.sacbee.com
California's salary setting commission is bracing next week to consider a 5 percent pay cut for legislators and other statewide officeholders, in keeping with a similar cut proposed by Gov. Jerry Brown for state workers.

California Pay Commission To Consider 5 Percent Cut For State Elected Officials
Jim Sanders @
sacbee.com
One week after Gov. Jerry Brown proposed slicing state workers' pay by 5 percent, the Democratic governor and legislators find themselves targeted for a "share the pain" salary cut.

Assemblyman Hernandez Pleads Not Guilty To Drunk Driving
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Assemblyman pleads not guilty in DUI case

CSU Pulls $200,000 Bid Request For Executive Pay Consultant
californiawatch.org
After recently posting a bid for an executive compensation consultant for the first time in eight years, California State University officials decided late last week to cancel the request for proposals – citing budget concerns.

Jerry Brown says he's a protagonist with one more act to come
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown, burdened by persistent budget deficits and with much of his agenda still unfulfilled, has tried in recent weeks to lower expectations for his second year.

L.A. City Council OKs $7.2-billion Budget
Los Angeles Times @
latimes.com
Spending plan expands library hours and increases money for pothole repairs while eliminating 400 vacant jobs, but it delays action on layoffs and leaves questions about some departments.

2012 Elections: Miller Campaign Responds To Video Release
blogs.pe.com
Hours after one of Rep. Gary Miller's primary opponents posted a blooper real of outtakes from a campaign video shoot, the Diamond Bar Republican answered — by posting the clips on his own website.

California Lawmakers Seek Ban On Using Dogs To Hunt Bears, Bobcats
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Senate votes to ban use of dogs when hunting bears

Income tax checkoff, car plates for parks proposed
utsandiego.com
Two North San Diego County Republican lawmakers have joined forces with Democrats to push legislation that would allow Californians to voluntarily contribute part of their income tax refund to parks in return for an annual admission pass.

California Public Utilities Commission Transparency Bill Dies
Los Angeles Times @
latimes.com
SACRAMENTO -- The state Senate has rejected a bill that would have required utility regulators to make public all investigation orders, accident reports and related documents.

Socal Assemblyman Pleads Not Guilty To Concord Drunken Driving Charges
contracostatimes.com
WALNUT CREEK -- State Assemblyman and assistant majority Whip Roger Hernandez, D-West Covina, has pleaded not guilty to misdemeanor drunken driving charges that stem from a Concord arrest, court records show.

Lawmakers Push New Plan To Rescue California Parks
latimesblogs.latimes.com
A bipartisan group of state lawmakers gathered on Monday to push a new plan to save dozens of California parks slated for closure this year. The lawmakers want to improve the collection of entrance fees and allow residents to buy...