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THE NOONER for May 10, 2012

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OH L'AMOUR, SHIFT HAPPENS!

Yesterday's announcement by President Obama that he now favors same sex marriage, while leaving it up to individual states, adds a social issue to the political plate that has been dominated by jobs and the economy. Obama says that he had planned to make the announcement sometime before the Democratic convention in September, although it was accelerated by the Veep's comments on Meet the Press.

Obama's announcement is unlikely to swing large groups of voters to him (particularly in the nine swing states), although it reinvigorates a less-than-excited GLBT base. I can't wait until June 20, when the May monthly finance reports are due. Expect to see a surge in contributions from GLBT-friendly ZIP codes beginning on May 9.

Obama would love for the GOP to take the bait and to turn 2012 into a culture war election, so he can take back the economic mantel. The Romney campaign is unlikely to bite.

But, how does it play in California? In the same election in which it gave Barack Obama 61.1% of the vote, the electorate also adopted a constitutional prohibition on gay marriage. Eighteen congressional districts that gave a majority of votes to Obama also voted in favor of Prop. 8. And, if you look in the chart below, some of these were Obama landslide districts with also large votes for Prop. 8 (particularly in strong African-American and Latino districts).

Of course, there has been lots of "evolution" since 2008 on the issue, and not just in the First Family. The Field Poll in February found that 59% of Californians now support gay marriage, while that number was only 51% in 2008. That number dropped to 49% in February of 2009 following the Prop. 8 campaign, but has had a huge rebound. There are two causes of this--demographics and societal opinion change. Young voters (18-39) are far more likely to support same-sex marriage (69%) than voters over 65 (45% support). Meanwhile, as more long-term same-sex couples are recognized in society (whether legally in 7 states or otherwise), people have become more accepting. 

It has always been a matter of time, and that time is probably now. Gay rights groups in California have been split on strategy. Some wanted to try to repeal Prop. 8 in 2010 and then 2012, while others wanted a couple of more years of a cooling off period (and to allow for more demographic change) before another costly campaign. Few were excited when Ted Olson and David Boise joined to challenge Prop. 8 in the federal courts, although that very California-specific case could be Prop. 8's undoing. The Ninth Circuit is currently considering whether to have an en banc rehearing of the case.

If the legal case to overturn Prop. 8 fails at either the Ninth Circuit en banc or at the U.S. Supreme Court, proponents of same-sex marriage likely missed an ideal opportunity to overturn it this November.

With voters mainly focused on the economy, along with demographic changes, opinion shift, and now the support of a black president, I would be willing to bet that voters are ready to scrap Prop. 8. 

In 2008, 32 congressional districts in California (well, the "new" districts) voted yes on Prop. 8 while 21 voted against it. If the same election were held today, I would project 24 would vote yes, 29 would vote no, and the statewide "yes" vote would be 46-48%, rather than the 52% in 2008.

Maybe that's why Pugno is looking for another career...

 

DistrictGeographyDistrict LeanProposition 8 YesObama
CD21 Kings Swing 74.9% 51.4%
CD23 Kern Safe Rep 74.3% 35.1%
CD22 Fresno Safe Rep 69.7% 42.3%
CD08 SB High Desert Safe Rep 68.4% 41.5%
CD42 Corona Safe Rep 67.4% 42.9%
CD16 Merced Safe Dem 67.0% 58.0%
CD10 Stanislaus Leans Dem 66.5% 49.8%
CD35 Ontario Safe Dem 65.8% 62.3%
CD50 East SD Co. Safe Rep 64.1% 39.0%
CD31 San Bernardino Safe Dem 63.8% 55.7%
CD41 Riverside Safe Dem 63.6% 58.4%
CD51 S. SD - Imperial Safe Dem 62.5% 65.4%
CD39 Fullerton Safe Rep 62.2% 44.7%
CD09 San Joaquin Safe Dem 61.6% 56.5%
CD47 Long Beach Safe Dem 60.2% 46.5%
CD46 Santa Ana Safe Dem 60.0% 57.8%
CD36 Coachella V Leans Dem 59.9% 50.1%
CD38 Whittier Safe Dem 59.9% 53.2%
CD01 NE Cal Safe Rep 59.5% 42.0%
CD04 Foothills Safe Rep 59.1% 43.0%
CD44 Carson Safe Dem 59.1% 81.5%
CD32 W. Covina Safe Dem 58.9% 61.2%
CD25 Palmdale Safe Rep 57.2% 43.4%
CD40 Downey Safe Dem 56.6% 80.3%
CD07 E. Sac Co Swing 56.3% 51.3%
CD03 Yolo Co Safe Dem 56.1% 55.0%
CD45 Irvine Safe Rep 55.7% 45.7%
CD27 Pasadena Safe Dem 55.6% 51.9%
CD43 Inglewood Safe Dem 54.0% 67.4%
CD48 Huntington Beach Safe Rep 52.1% 45.8%
CD49 Carlsbad Safe Rep 51.9% 49.1%
CD26 Ventura Co Swing 51.8% 56.7%
CD53 La Mesa Safe Dem 48.4% 60.7%
CD06 Sacramento Safe Dem 47.9% 67.6%
CD24 Santa Barbara Swing 47.4% 56.4%
CD19 San Jose Safe Dem 47.2% 67.5%
CD17 Milpitas Safe Dem 47.0% 68.5%
CD15 Pleasanton Safe Dem 46.9% 66.9%
CD52 SD Leans Dem 46.0% 54.7%
CD29 E. San Fernando V Safe Dem 45.5% 62.7%
CD34 Downtown LA Safe Dem 44.7% 69.3%
CD20 Monterey Safe Dem 40.7% 71.4%
CD05 Napa Safe Dem 40.6% 70.7%
CD11 Contra Cost Safe Dem 40.6% 68.8%
CD28 Hollywood Safe Dem 39.9% 64.9%
CD14 San Mateo Safe Dem 38.1% 73.3%
CD30 W. San Fernando V Safe Dem 35.5% 61.3%
CD33 LA Coast Safe Dem 35.5% 58.0%
CD18 Palo Alto Safe Dem 34.9% 69.6%
CD37 Culver City Safe Dem 32.6% 78.2%
CD02 N. Coast Safe Dem 31.6% 71.5%
CD13 Oakland Safe Dem 27.3% 87.1%
CD12 SF Safe Dem 22.2% 83.8%

 

GOLDEN PARACHUTE: Senator Sam Blakeslee will be forming a public policy thinktank when his term ends this year. And, the seed funding for the California Reform Institute is coming from none other than Charles Munger. Munger bankrolled the redistricting reform measures that left Blakeslee without a district.

TIMM HERDT: Sleaze, deception, Big Oil and the top two primary

Herdt takes a deeper look into the California Senior Advocate League I wrote about yesterday. He notes that the committee spent $35,000 for mailers in support of Charlotte Svolos, a Republican running in the very Democrat SD35. Senate GO committee chairman Rod Wright is running, along with Svolos and Democrat Paul Butterfield.

"So why would the Chevron-funded PAC support a token Republican candidate in a Senate race? The only explanation is to help Wright by trying to make sure Svolos gets enough votes in the primary to finish a distant second, but ahead of the other Democrat. The expenditure on Svolos' behalf is cynically manipulative."

CD26: LA Times endorses Rep-turned-NPP Ventura County Supe Linda Parks.

DESIGNED IN CALIFORNIA: Your Mac power adaptor is also a great beer bottle opener. No more ruining hotel room furniture.

APOLOGIES: To the Capitol Morning Report, for the item yesterday that may not have come across right. The item on AD18 candidate Joel Young misrepresenting an endorsement was an error in his camp, not CMR.

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Leading donors to federal IE committees:

Committee for an Effective Valley Congressman

  • Peter Lowy, Los Angeles, Westfield - $100,000
  • Mapleton Investments, Los Angeles, - $100,000
  • David Bohnett, Beverly Hills, Baroda Investors - $10,000

House Majority PAC

  • Committee on Letter Carriers, Washington, DC - $500,000
  • S. Donald Sussman, Paloma Partners, Greenwich, Connecticut - $250,000
  • Laborers International Union of North America, Washington, DC - $125,000

Inland Empire Taxpayers for Jobs

  • Prime Healthcare Services, Inc., Ontario - $25,000
  • Theodore W. Dutton, Urban Advisors, Rancho Cucamonga - $15,000
  • Urban Advisors, Inc., Rancho Cucamonga - $10,000

 

Federal Independent Expenditures

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Expenditure Amount Received Date Report Date
Committee for an Effective Valley Congressman Howard Berman (Support) Media Buy $95,855 05/07/2012 05/09/2012
House Majority PAC Linda Parks (Oppose) Mail $22,250 05/07/2012 05/09/2012
Inland Empire Taxpayers for Jobs Bob Dutton (Support) Mail $18,954 05/07/2012 05/08/2012
National Association of Realtors PAC Gary Miller (Support) TV $396,300 05/09/2012 05/09/2012
National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund Gary Miller (Support) Internet ads $37,300 05/09/2012 05/09/2012

 

Yesterday's Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
California Charter Schools Association Advocates Independent Expenditure Committee Brian C. Johnson (Support) $20,000 05/08/2012 05/09/2012
California Professional Firefighters Ie Pac Jason Hodge (Support) $24,834 05/08/2012 05/09/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Adam Gray (Support) $9,000 05/08/2012 05/09/2012
California Real Estate Independent Expenditure Committee Cathleen Galgiani (Support) $22,868 05/08/2012 05/09/2012
California Tribal Business Alliance Ie Pac Rudy Bermudez (Oppose) $23,104 05/08/2012 05/09/2012

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Jerry Brown Tells Unions State Payroll Costs Need To Come Down
Jon Ortiz @
sacbee.com
State workers' pay is back on the budget chopping block. Officials representing Gov. Jerry Brown met with state employee union leaders last week and delivered the news: A budget revision he'll release Monday includes a new proposal to cut payroll costs in the upcoming fiscal year.

Obama Backs Same-sex Marriage, Fires Up Both Sides
Carla Marinucci,Joe Garofoli @
sfgate.com
President Obama's historic move Wednesday to support same-sex marriage could ripple all the way to the November election, helping unite his liberal base while threatening to ignite evangelical voters who have yet to...

Billionaire Will Give $20 Million For Corporate Tax Hike Initiative
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Billionaire hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer will donate $20 million toward an initiative that would raise $1 billion annually from multi-state corporations for green building projects and the state budget, proponents said today.

Where Do State's Billions Come From -- And Go?
Teri Sforza @
taxdollars.ocregister.com
Voters are of two minds on the governor's proposal to hike sales taxes, which is on the November ballot...

Proposed Tweak To Term Limits Makes Eminent Sense
George Skelton @
latimes.com
By allowing California legislators to serve 12 years in one house, Prop. 28 would instill some adult supervision and dampen political ambition, especially in the Assembly.

Jerry Brown Appoints Caltrans Chief, Honors Workers
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown today defended the work of the public sector as that which "ties us together," speaking at a memorial for Caltrans employees killed while working last year.

California Politicians Praise Obama's Support For Same-sex Marriage
latimesblogs.latimes.com
Top California politicians hailed President Obama's statement of support for same-sex marriage.

President Barack Obama announces support for same-sex marriage
Michael A. Memoli and Kathleen Hennessey @
mercurynews.com
President Barack Obama says he now supports same-sex marriage, ending months of equivocation on a subject with powerful election-year consequences.

Same-sex Marriage: How Will It Play Politically?
washingtonpost.com
President Obama hoped that announcing his change of heart in favor of same-sex marriage would put the issue to rest as a topic in his bid for re-election.

Southland Reaction Split On Obama's Support Of Gay Marriage
dailynews.com
Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who has been a longtime supporter of gay marriage and officiated at weddings in City Hall during the brief period when same-sex marriages were legal in California, praised the president's comments.

President Obama’s Calculated Gamble On Gay Marriage
Chris Cillizza @
washingtonpost.com
In truth, Obama’s hand was forced on the issue by comments made by Vice President Joe Biden over the weekend in which he seemed to express support for gay marriage.

“the Gavin Newsom Show,” Stocked With Stars, Debuts May 18 On Current Tv
Wyatt Buchanan, Michael Collier, Richard Dunham, Bob Egelko, Joe Garofoli, Marisa Lagos, Carolyn Lochhead, Carla Marinucci, @
blog.sfgate.com
“The Gavin Newsom Show,” stocked with stars, debuts May 18 on Current TV

Analysis: Obama Gambles With Gay Marriage Move
Charles Babington @
sacbee.com
Public opinion about gay marriage has changed so rapidly that President Barack Obama's historic embrace of it may pose as many political risks to Republicans as to the president and his fellow Democrats.

California Lawmakers Push For Fracking Rules
latimesblogs.latimes.com
California lawmakers took preliminary steps to increase the size of the state's oil and gas agency -- with the condition that regulators draft rules for hydraulic fracturing, a controversial form of oil extraction that some say can pose a hazard to drinking water.

Gay Marriage: Are Obama And Californians In Sync?
John Myers @
news10.net
Perhaps President Obama is, deep down, a Californian ... at least on same-sex marriage.

Republican San Diego Mayor Applauds Obama's Support Of Gay Marriage
Tony Perry @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders, a Republican who risked his political career by supporting gay-marriage, applauded President Obama's decision Wednesday to support marriage equality.

Political Times: A Watershed Moment, if Not a Case of Bold Leadership
MATT BAI @
nytimes.com
Future historians may well describe President Obama's declaration on gay marriage as righteous or inspiring or a watershed moment. What they probably won't call it is a case of bold political leadership.

Civil unions: Colorado governor to call special legislative session
Los Angeles Times @
latimes.com
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper plans to call a special session of the Legislature as soon as Friday to resolve a debate over civil unions that ended without a vote when the regular legislative session came to a close earlier this week.

Editorial: President takes a risk as he makes history
sacbee.com
President Barack Obama's announcement on Wednesday that he believes same-sex marriage should be legal could cost him votes in swing states such as North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada, and, by extension, his re-election. That's what makes his historic announcement all the more significant.

Gay donors thrilled by Obama gay marriage stance
Joseph Tanfani, Matea Gold and Melanie Mason @
latimes.com
WASHINGTON -- President Obama’s decision to embrace gay marriage may add a political complication to his reelection bid, but it is also unleashing a wave of new financial support from gay and lesbian donors who were already major backers of his candidacy.

Obama Says Same-Sex Marriage Should Be Legal
nytimes.com
By publicly endorsing same-sex marriage in a television interview, the president took a definitive stand on one of the most contentious and politically charged social issues of the day.

Obama's gay marriage support resonates in Calif.
LISA LEFF, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
Perhaps more than any other politician, California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom understands the political risk President Barack Obama took Wednesday when he announced that he supports same-sex marriages.