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THE NOONER for May 8, 2012

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PEEING ON A FENCE: The political ad of the cycle. [h/t @reedgalen]

NOBODY KNOWS: As we hear the various rumors around the state about candidates with momentum and surprise polling, it's worth noting that these are the most unpredictable races anyone has seen in a long time. Yes, we have new districts and a top-two primary season, but more importantly may be the number of candidates, encouraged by the combination of those two developments.  

The sheer number of candidates makes polling and positioning extraordinarily difficult. As a voter getting a phone call, try listening to 13 candidate names and ballot titles.

While the number of candidates for congressional races is dramatically higher than in June 2010 (236 versus 212), I would proffer that there is a higher caliber of candidates, and a selected group of districts has far more than we have seen in some time. Here are the races with six or more candidates, which in many cases create the greatest uncertainty in the top two world.

DistrictNumber of Candidates
CD08 13
CD02 11
CD52 10
CD01 8
CD33 8
CD47 8
CD51 7
CD20 7
AD10 7
CD28 7
CD30 7
AD05 6
AD39 6
AD08 6
AD09 6
AD58 6
CD26 6
CD42 6
AD11 6
AD46 6
AD79 6
CD31 6

AD67: @jimmiller2: Paule attacks Melendez for "racking up $3k in speeding tix in last 3 years." Paule's consultant calls Melendez "a menace on the road."

Below the jump, the SuperPAC and IE expenditures continue to roll in. Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy jumped on the field for Tom Calderon in AD58. The committee is one of the large multi-cycle, multi-candidate IE committees.

With $397k as of March 17 and $317k collected since, the committee has lots of ammunition left for the last month. The largest recent contributors to the PAC include Chevron ($100k), CA Real Estate ($90k), PG&E ($30k), and PhaRMA ($25k).

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"SuperPAC" Expenditures

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Expenditure Amount Received Date Report Date
Inland Empire Taxpayers for Jobs Bob Dutton (Support) Mailer $21,411 05/05/2012 05/07/2012
Citizens for Prosperity and Good Government Doug LaMalfa (Support) Radio $52,000 05/05/2012 05/07/2012


Yesterday's Independent Expenditure Reports

Committee Candidate (Support/Oppose) Amount Received Date Report Date
Bigelow For Assembly 2012, Major Funding By Ca Dental Association Ie Pac, Ca Real Estate Ie Pac; Mother Lode Taxpayers Association Committee, Supporting Frank Frank Bigelow (Support) $559 05/07/2012 05/07/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Tom Calderon (Support) $25,000 05/02/2012 05/07/2012
Californians For Jobs And A Strong Economy Tom Calderon (Support) $20,144 05/04/2012 05/07/2012
Vote Matters Imposes Additional Tax On Cigarettes For Cancer Re (Support) $5,547 05/07/2012 05/07/2012
Vote Matters Joe Coto (Support) $8,100 05/07/2012 05/07/2012

Molly Munger Says She And Jerry Brown Could Work Together On Tax Measures
Molly Munger's initiative would raise about $10 billion a year for 12 years by hiking state income tax on all but the poorest earners.

Philip Morris Drops $26k Into Gov. Jerry Brown's Reelection Campaign
Marisa Lagos @
Looks like the No on 29 campaign isn't the only California election committee benefiting from the tobacco industry's largesse: Last week, Philip Morris USA contributed $26,000 to Gov. Jerry Brown's 2014 reelection campaign.

Munger Campaign Poll Highlights Some Tax Choices---but Not All :: Fox&hounds
The campaign to raise income taxes for schools headed by civil rights attorney Molly Munger released a memo on a campaign poll that argues voters would embrace her plan if they knew all the facts. The Munger campaign, which handily filed enough signatures to qualify the tax measure for the ballot, has been fighting the perception that her measure will fail at the polls. The recent Public Policy Institute poll had the initiative at 40% support.

Rivals Of Jerry Brown Submit Signatures For Tax Initiative
Backers of a tax to fund public schools and pre-school in California submit signatures. The signatures submitted by backers of a tax to fund public schools and pre-school in California will probably be enough to qualify for the November ballot.

Obama Campaign Parses His Same-sex Marriage Stance
Carolyn Lochhead @
The White House and President Obama's campaign advisers insisted Monday that there was no difference between Obama's position on same-sex marriage and Vice President Joe Biden's, despite Obama's refusal to endorse legal...

Tobacco Companies Add $15 Million To Fight Cigarette Tax
Tobacco companies are stepping up their efforts to defeat Proposition 29, the June ballot measure that would hike cigarette taxes by $1 per pack. On Friday, the parent companies of Philip Morris USA and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. reported giving...

UC Davis Sues Bank Over Its Decision To Pull Out Of Campus - Business - The Sacramento Bee
In continuing fallout from the Occupy campus protests at UC Davis, the university has filed a lawsuit against U.S. Bank, alleging breach of contract.

Jerry Brown, Other California Dignitaries Remember Fallen Peace Officers
Jon Ortiz @
Gov. Jerry Brown called California's law enforcement officers the "the best of our state" this morning as hundreds of police, sheriffs' deputies, Highway Patrol officers, correctional officers and their friends and families remembered those who have fallen in the line of duty.

Chancellor Yudof Defends UC's Accessibility To Poor
Heather Somerville @
Speaking before an audience of Fresno business and education leaders, University of California President Mark Yudof made the case that the state's most prestigious public university system is still accessible to low-income students, and could become more affordable to the middle-class, despite year-over-year tuition hikes.

Constitutional same-sex marriage ban on ballot in North Carolina
Morgan Little @
North Carolina's Amendment One, which would define marriage as strictly between one man and one woman in the state's constitution, finally goes before voters Tuesday following months of fighting for and against the proposal.

SF Teachers Set For Strike Vote Amid Budget Woes
Jill Tucker @
San Francisco teachers are set for a strike vote this week over the district's demands to cut $30 million from teachers' salaries and benefits over the next two years. The union wants a 2 percent raise for teachers...

California Needs Huge Investment To Create Jobs
Dan Walters @
California is struggling to emerge from the worst recession since the Great Depression and has more than 2 million unemployed workers, plus countless others who have given up seeking work out of frustration and/or have fled to other states.

Fresno Unified Challenges Father's Claims In Special Education Case
Fresno Unified School District Superintendent Michael Hanson said he never told a special education student's parent that he would have the district pay his legal fees if he fired his attorney.

Court Dismisses Vets' Suit On Mental Health Care
Bob Egelko @
Claims of systematic delays and neglect in mental health care for the nation's military veterans are beyond the power of courts to address, a federal appeals court in San Francisco ruled Monday in ordering dismissal of...

Nathan Fletcher Replaced Today On Committee Deciding Tax Bill
Jim Sanders @
Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher's request to be replaced for today's Assembly Revenue and Taxation Committee, which will vote on a controversial tax proposal, has been granted by Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez.

California Lawmaker Pushes New Municipal Bankruptcy Limit - Bloomberg
Public employee unions are backing the new bill by state Assemblyman Bob Wieckowski, the Fremont Democrat who wrote the law approved in September. It requires municipalities to undergo an evaluation or declare a fiscal emergency before filing for bankruptcy.

Doctors promote proposed California tobacco tax in new ad
Steven Harmon @
The campaign to raise tobacco taxes is unveiling its first statewide television ad today with a slate full of doctors endorsing Proposition 29. The campaign is also calling on Gov. Jerry Brown to return a $26,000 donation to his 2014 re-election committee from tobacco giant Philip Morris that he received last week.

Dreary April Tax Collections Raise Budget Worries, Controller Says
Controller John Chiang has joined a chorus of voices expressing concern over a sharp dip in tax revenue last month. He issued a report on Tuesday saying the state reaped 20% less taxes than expected in April, the most important month for income tax collections.

As Super PAC Money Flows, An Effort To Divert Cash To Charity
Will Evans @
With the American political system deluged with super-sized donations, a few innovative proposals are trying to harness small donors and, in one case, divert campaign cash to charity.

Tribute Paid To Sacrifice In The Line Of Duty - Capitol And California - The Sacramento Bee
Beverley Henwood, center, mother of slain San Diego Officer Jeremy Henwood, is escorted from the Capitol to a ceremony where Gov. Jerry Brown and other state officials spoke.

Republicans block Senate proposal to keep student loan rates low
Lisa Mascaro @
WASHINGTON -- The political battle over President Obama’s plan to keep student loan interest rates from skyrocketing escalated as Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic proposal to tax wealthier earners to pay for it.

Sacramento's Threadbare Medical Network For Poor Getting Thinner - Health And Medicine - The Sacramento Bee
Michael and Karen Brandt stand in the doorway of their Del Paso Heights home in Sacramento. Michael, 50, qualifies for Medi-Cal due to disability. Uninsured, Karen Brandt, 48, tried Sacramento County's remaining public clinic, but her co-pay would have been $230.

Cal State Trustees Backing Off 10 Percent Pay Hike For Presidents
Under a plan CSU trustees will consider Tuesday, the campus presidents could still receive salary increases, but non-profit groups would pay for them.

Boxer Wants Rental Car Companies To Park Vehicles Facing Recall
Jim Puzzanghera @
WASHINGTON -- Sen. Barbara Boxer wants major rental car companies to pledge not to rent out vehicles facing safety recalls until they are repaired.