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THE NOONER for April 2, 2012

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TWEET DU JOUR @jdickerson - "It's creepy how both parties have perfected the same insipid sincerity in their blast fundraising emails. Bi-partisan awfulness."

Thank goodness that end-of-quarter federal campaign madness is over. Seriously, doncha think we've jumped the solicitation shark when "Barack Obama" is sending out messages with the subject line of "Hey"?

Alas, a break from those emails and spring break with a five-day mostly sunny forecast, all is good in the 95811.

Our look at districts with as-of-now legit NPPs continues today with AD20. On Friday, I was off the Mark, so to speak, and wrote that Mark Stone is running in AD20. Rather, Stone is the CDP-endorsed candidate for Bill Monning's AD29. However, Mark Green, the mayor of Union City is one to watch in AD20, the Fremont-Hayward seat mostly occupied by Mary Hayashi now. Let's look at the registration:

AD20
Dem: 54.3%
Rep: 17.3%
NPP: 22.8%

Let's just acknowledge the point that this is a solidly Democratic seat. It's also California's fifth highest Asian CVAP seat, with 28.1%. What we're looking at today, however, is the chance of a NPP candidate making the top two. Recognizing that Obama received 73% in this district in 2010 and Brown received 67% in 2010, it is fair to estimate that the Dem candidates will receive 65-75% of the vote in June. Similarly, the "low water mark" for Republicans is between 20-25% in the district, based on previous candidate performance.

Indie candidate Mark Green is the mayor of Union City, which has 30,367 or of the 202,703 registered voters (15%) in the district. He ran unopposed in 2008 and captured 17,905 votes. 

Hayward City Councilman Bill Quirk has been sopping up the endorsements, including the California Democratic Party, and leads the money race. Optometrist Jennifer Ong looks to capture the sizeable Asian-American vote, using both her Chinese last name and Filipino roots. This is probably bad news for Green, as Ong is likely to pick off enough NPP and even Republican Asian votes that, combined with her chunk of the Democratic vote, will either give her a second-place finish or, more likely, ensure that Republican Luis Reynoso moves on to November. This is made more likely by the candidacy of New Haven USD board member Sarabjoit Kaur Cheema, running as a Democrat, will likely pick up the fair-sized Sikh vote, regardless of party. Once all of these factors are included, there just isn't much room for a NPP candidate. 

ANOTHER NPP TO WATCH? A reader notes that Assemblymember Roger Hernandez has two independent challengers, including one who is a retired cop. After last week's DUI arrest, does he become a legit candidate? We'll wait for the outcome of the BAC blood test.

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Friday's final RPdata/Redistricting Partners question was answered most closely by Garen Yegparian of Burbank, who guessed three of the ten questions from the last two weeks correctly!

Friday's question was: "Today, the Ricardo Lara edition: what percentage vote No on Prop 8 (voting no means support for gay marriage) were Latino and White voters in his new Senate District 33? For reference, the district overall total was 44% no."

Garen's guess was: White 56%, Latino 36%

The correct answer was: White 56.7%, Latino 34.7%

Here's a bigger explainer on Latinos and Proposition 8 from RPdata/Redistricting Partners.

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Democrats Duel Over Budget, Taxes
Vauhini Vara @
online.wsj.com
California Gov. Jerry Brown's proposed ballot measure this fall to raise taxes and restore funding to an array of state programs faces unlikely opposition from a prominent Los Angeles lawyer who supported Mr. Brown's election only 17 months ago.

Clyburn: Health law may take years
Darius Dixon @
politico.com
Like the civil rights legislation, health care is a mutli-year and multi-step process, he says.

Leftism At UC Leaves Many With Unbalanced Education, Study Says
Larry Gordon @
latimes.com
Especially in humanities, study of classics and rigorous analysis have been replaced by advocacy and teaching about minorities' grievances, a conservative group says. UC provost disputes the findings.

UC leftism faulted for unbalanced education
Larry Gordon @
latimes.com
Especially in humanities, study of classics and rigorous analysis have been replaced by advocacy and teaching about minorities' grievances, a conservative group says. UC provost disputes the findings.

Occupation Listings On Ballots Are High-stakes Decisions - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
What are the most high-stakes, second-guessed, agonized-over words since "I do?"

Officials Ponder How To Ensure Healthcare Reform In California
Chad Terhune @
latimes.com
As the U.S. Supreme Court considers the fate of the federal Affordable Care Act, legislation in California could pave the way for a state substitute, if needed.

California affirmative action ban challenge rejected
Howard Mintz @
mercurynews.com
Federal appeals court judges reject latest challenge to California's Proposition 209 affirmative action ban over university admissions, citing prior ruling upholding the voter-approved law

School hits will vary under state funding formula
utsandiego.com
As legislators in Sacramento wrestle with a gubernatorial proposal to restructure how state money is doled out to schools, officials at the district level are grappling with the idea that they could lose even more because of the ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds of their students.

Feds Raid Downtown Oaksterdam Pot School
sfgate.com
Federal agents swooped in Monday morning to search Oaksterdam University in Oakland, the state's first cannabis industry training school. Agents with the U.S. Marshals Service, the Drug Enforcement Administration and...

Federal agents raid Calif. marijuana university
TERRY COLLINS, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
Federal agents have raided a San Francisco Bay area medical marijuana training school at the heart of California's pot legalization movement.

AM Alert
Micaela Massimino @
blogs.sacbee.com
While the California Legislature takes the week off, the Dan Walters Daily

A Telling GOP Defection
George Skelton @
latimes.com
The GOP's dwindling numbers in California aren't news, but the loss of someone like Nathan Fletcher should be a wake-up call.

If justices kill health law, California may just revive it
Chad Terhune @
latimes.com
As the U.S. Supreme Court considers the fate of the federal Affordable Care Act, legislation in California could pave the way for a state substitute, if needed.

Job Front: Survey Finds Growth A Factor In Sacramento Hiring Plans
sacbee.com
Sacramento employers say in a just-released survey that they are as optimistic about hiring as they have been in several years, but that they continue to fret over rising fuel prices and a skills gap among job candidates.

War on drugs takes center stage as Calderon meets with Obama
Brian Bennett @
latimes.com
The unchecked scourge of drug violence in Mexico and the government’s campaign to hobble the cartels is expected to overshadow economic discussions when Mexican President Felipe Calderon visits the White House on Monday.

Occupation listings on ballots are high-stakes decisions
Jim Sanders @
sacbee.com
For California politicians, the three-word description of them that is printed on ballots is a high-stakes campaign decision.

Supreme Court OKs Strip Searches For Even Minor Offenses
latimes.com
The Supreme Court refused Monday to limit strip searches of new jail inmates, even those arrested for minor traffic offenses

Brown's Balancing Act On Tax Hike: Wage Populist Fight To Soak The Rich Or Carefully Court Business?
Steven Harmon @
mercurynews.com
The quandary for California governor is that he needs the support of both wings of the coalition hes trying to build.

'mad Men' Takes A Swipe At A Politician Named Romney
DAVE ITZKOFF @
nytimes.com
Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin on Friday is endorsing the presidential candidacy of Mitt Romney, becoming the latest Republican leader to urge the party to coalesce behind Mr. Romney and begin to confront President Obama.

Chevron loses tax appeal in Contra Costa County
Lisa Vorderbrueggen @
mercurynews.com
County and cities could collect an additional $26.7 million in property taxes after appeals board finds Contra Costa Assessor Gus Kramer undervalued the Richmond refinery in 2007-2009. The oil company was seeking a refund of up to $73 million.

Gallup poll: Obama has 9-point lead over Romney in swing states
Michael A. Memoli @
latimes.com
A new Gallup poll shows that President Obama has opened up his largest lead over Mitt Romney to date, both nationally and among voters in a dozen key November battlegrounds.

Immigration officials arrest more than 3,100
KEVIN FREKING, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
The Obama administration said Monday it arrested more than 3,100 immigrants who were illegally in the country and who were convicted of serious crimes or otherwise considered fugitives or threats to national security. It was part of a six-day nationwide sweep that the government described as the largest of its kind.