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THE NOONER for March 30, 2012

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TWEET DU JOUR: @Philrung - "Dear legislators, please stop getting arrested. Thanks."

Happy Cesar Chavez Day and Spring Break! The Legislature is out until April 9.

NPP, PART 2: Yesterday, we looked at three congressional districts with legitimate "No Party Preference" candidates. There are similarly three indie candidates to watch in Assembly races: Len Augustine (AD11), Mark Stone (AD20), and Chad Walsh (AD28). Instead of tackling them all today, I want to take a little deeper look and will voter AD20 and AD28 next week.

AD11
Dem: 47.7%
Rep: 20.9%
NPP: 20.1%

This is a new district that combines the western half of Mariko Yamada's current district with the eastern part of Joan Buchanan's current district, making a Solano-Delta district. Four Democrats, one Republican and one NPP are competing in June. Len Augustine dropped his Republican registration to run as an indie in this Democratic district with 20.1% independent voters.

This is one that Democrats need to be a little concerned about. A couple of the Democrats running are strong, although Oakley councilmember Jim Frazier has taken a sizable financial lead. While fellow Democrat Gene Gantt retired as fire chief in Benicia (outside the district), he has ties to the fire departments stretching the northern half of the district and will have significant public safety support. Patricia Hernandez, also from the southern Delta portion of the district (Rio Vista) brings with her labor backing including the California Teachers Association and AFSCME, as well as support from Latino legislators. Importantly, of the six candidates in the race, she is the only female.

With labor all over the (new) map, despite Frazier's early money and elected institutional support, the candidate who connects with the "everyday people" in this key Delta district may only have an even chance of making the top two.

Democrats will get up to 50-60% of the vote in this district. I would project that Republican Mike Hudson, vice mayor of Suisun City, will capture 30-35% and be the top vote recipient in June. This leaves only 5%-20% for Augustine as an independent candidate. If Democrats fall on the lower end of the range (because Augustine runs at the high end), he has a possibility of making top two, but only if Suisun City candidate Charles Kingeter peels of 5% and the other three split the vote fairly evently. This is certainly a possibility, and may be the best chance for an independent candidate to make it to the Assembly in November.

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RPdata – Using Redistricting Partners data and tools to help campaigns.

YESTERDAY'S QUESTION:"A tough one, in two parts: What percentage of Asian Republican Dentists and Latino Democratic Security guards are Permanent Absentee Voters?"

YESTERDAY'S ANSWER: Asian Rep Dentists are 53% PAV; Latino Dem Security are 28% PAV. Congratulations to Chandra Sharma who guessed 60% and 30% respectively."

TODAY'S QUESTION: "Today, the Ricardo Lara edition: what percentage vote No on Prop 8 (voting no means support for gay marriage) were Latino and White voters in his new Senate District 33? For reference, the district overall total was 44% no.

To win a $5 Temple Coffee gift certificate, send the correct answer on Twitter with the #RPdataCA hashtag or email info@redistrictingpartners.com.

Follow us at twitter/RPdataCA or on the web at www.rpdata.ca

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NOTED: Edmund G. Brown, Jr. does not appear as the official proponent of the compromise tax measure. Instead, Remcho, Johansen & Purcell attorney Thomas Willis is listed as proponent. The Remcho firm also did the legal work for the Munger initiative...

GOP BUDGET PLAN: On the eve of Spring Break, Senate and Assembly Republicans unveiled budget alternatives to avoid education (including UC/CSU/CCC) "trigger" cuts in the event the governor's tax measure is unsuccessful. 

LA-LA LAND: K-Town threatens a lawsuit over, and Jan Perry asks for a veto of, the council-approved redistricting plan.

AD46: The Daily News profiles the hot race among Democrats for the open Sherman Oaks Assembly seat.

NRCC TARGETS: NJ's Sean Sullivan and Scott Bland get a copy of a memo and write that the National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting four seats for pick-up: CD03 (Garamendi), CD21 (Open Kings), CD22 (Costa), and CD24 (Capps). 

Have a great weekend!

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Steinberg: GOP Plan is "Rehash" With One-Time Fixes
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg said Thursday he considers the Republican budget plan a "rehash" that is legally questionable and would not solve California's fundamental budget problems.

GOP Lawmakers Unveil Plan To Avoid Trigger Cuts
Wyatt Buchanan @
sfgate.com
Republicans in the Legislature on Thursday unveiled a plan to fund public education at the same levels proposed by Gov. Jerry Brown , but without a tax increase or the threat of automatic spending cuts to schools if...

For government lawyer Verrilli, tough week on health care case
Morgan Little @
latimes.com
Although his arguments in support of the healthcare law in the Supreme Court are over, and the nine justices will cast their initial votes in secret today, the public grilling of Solicitor General Donald Verrilli Jr. doesn’t look like it will end anytime soon.

Gov. Jerry Brown's Administration Wants Health Care Change, With Or Without Federal Law
David Siders and Kevin Yamamura @
sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown's administration vowed Thursday to continue pushing forward elements of the federal health care overhaul in California, even if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes it down.

3 Protesters Arrested At UC Regents Meeting
Vivian Ho,Stephanie Baer @
sfgate.com
Three protesters were arrested Thursday at the UC Board of Regents meeting, when a few dozen activists, some stripped down to swimsuits, called for more transparency in state funding talks and an end to tuition hikes....

Lawmakers Yearning For Disdain
Dan Walters @
sacbee.com
Blaming term limits for the Legislature's laggard ways – which surfaced well before term limits were enacted – is dubious at best, and so is assuming that changing them would be a miraculous cure. Proposition 28 is fairly innocuous but is far short of the fundamental structural change that's needed to make the Legislature effective and relevant again.

Gov. Jerry Brown's Finance Office Questions GOP Budget Plan
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown's Department of Finance responded late this afternoon with a line-by-line retort to the budget proposal that California Republican legislators unveiled this morning. "A number of these proposals have been overstated in value or blocked by the courts," said Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer.

JUDGE SETS HEARING ON PENSION BALLOT MEASURE FOR JUNE 22
utsandiego.com
A Superior Court judge has delayed a state board hearing into the legitimacy of Proposition B — a San Diego initiative that would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most new city hires — until after the public vote on June 5.

Villaraigosa Says L.A. Must Lay Off 'a Large Number Of Employees'
William Nottingham @
latimesblogs.latimes.com
L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said he will call for layoffs of city employees as part of the budget he proposes next month.

Bad omen for healthcare law: Many comments from the justices
David Lauter @
latimes.com
The statistics hold up pretty well, and offer gloomy tidings for the Obama administration and its healthcare law.

Dan Walters Daily: Politicians play the ballot name game
Amy Chance @
blogs.sacbee.com
VIDEO: Dan Walters discusses California politicians' efforts to describe themselves in flattering ways on the ballot.

Judge Rules That Jose Hernandez Can Keep 'astronaut' Title On Ballot - Elections - The Sacramento Bee
sacbee.com
Then-astronaut Jose Hernandez visits San Joaquin Delta College in Stockton in 2009, months after his space shuttle mission and before he left NASA and announced his run for Congress.

Judge sets hearing on pension ballot measure
Craig Gustafson @
utsandiego.com
A Superior Court judge has delayed a state board hearing into the legitimacy of Proposition B -- a San Diego initiative that would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most new city hires €-- until after the public vote on June 5.

Steinberg: GOP Plan is 'Rehash' With One-Time Fixes
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg said Thursday he considers the Republican budget plan a "rehash" that is legally questionable and would not solve California's fundamental budget problems.

Santorum Plays The Jelly Belly Card In California Fundraising Trip
Torey Van Oot @
sacbee.com
Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum sought to sell his conservative credentials to California Republicans Thursday, using a stop at the Jelly Belly Candy Company to the compare himself to one of the sweet's most famous fans - late President Ronald Reagan.

Pugno campaign seeks to serve Beth Gaines at the Capitol
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
Pugno, a Folsom attorney, filed a lawsuit earlier this week challenging Gaines' use of "small business owner" as her job title on the ballot. Gaines says it's accurate because she and husband Ted Gaines, a state senator, own their own insurance company. Pugno's complaint says telling voters that is her "principal profession, occupation or vocation" is misleading because the company was just incorporated in late January.

Jeff Gorell Returns From Afghanistan, Prepares To Rejoin Assembly » Ventura County Star
vcstar.com
© 2012 Ventura County Star. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Viewpoints: What will be the price if court overturns health care reform?
sacbee.com
In arguments before the Supreme Court this week, the Obama administration might have done just enough to keep the Affordable Care Act from being ruled unconstitutional. Those who believe in limited government had better hope so, at least.

Villaraigosa Calls For Raising Retirement Age On New Employees
David Zahniser @
latimes.com
The mayor proposes raising the retirement age to 67 for new workers. With the city facing a $220-million shortfall, he says jobs may have to be cut.

Political rift appears in state compensation panel
JUDY LIN, Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
A political rift has appeared in a citizens panel that oversees compensation for California lawmakers and statewide elected officials.

The Caucus: Adam Liptak and Reed Abelson of The Times Answer Readers' Questions on the Health Care Arguments
THE NEW YORK TIMES @
nytimes.com
Reed Abelson and Adam Liptak of The Times answered readers' questions about the health care arguments in the Supreme Court.

UC leaders cancel executive pension program
The Associated Press @
utsandiego.com
The University of California's governing board has taken steps to limit the pensions of its top-earning executives who had threatened to sue the college system over what they claimed was a promise to increase their retirement packages.