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THE NOONER for December 7, 2011

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DISTRICT UPDATES

  • SD15 (San Jose) - updated analysis
  • SD17 (Santa Cruz-SLO) - updated analysis
  • SD19 (Santa Barbara) - updated analysis
  • SD21 (Palmdale-Sta Clarita) - updated analysis
  • SD25 (Pasadena) - updated analysis
  • SD27 (Ventura) - updated analysis
  • SD29 (Fullerton) - updated analysis
  • SD39 (San Diego) - updated analysis

ANOTHER DURKEE DELAY: The Kinde Durkee hearing has been kicked to January 26, 2012 to give federal prosecutors more time, making it much more likely that candidates won't have access to funds for the 2012 cycle. 

BELLUM OMNIUM CONTRA OMNES: The ballot measure to curtail union dues spending on politics ("Paycheck Protection or Paycheck Deception," as you will) qualified for the ballot, the Secretary of State announced yesterday. That comes as no surprise, as over 924,000 signatures were submitted (504,760 required). This sets up battle royale next November, as labor will spend whatever it takes to preserve its right to play.

Here are the results of previous efforts (Ballotpedia):

  • Proposition 226 (1998) - Yes: 46.77%, No: 53.23%; Proponent spending: $6.4 million; Opponent spending: $24.8 million
  • Proposition 75 (2005) - Yes: 46.5%, No: 53.5%; Proponent spending: $5.8 million; Opponent spending: $54.1 million

Politically, I think labor can squeak out another defeat. Proponents expanded the measure to prohibit corporate payroll deduction for political contributions, and got a better title than the previous efforts. That said, with SB 202, the measure is on the November ballot, which should have a much higher and more liberal turnout than either June 1998 or November 2005. In those elections, 6,206,618 and 7,968,757 Californians voted respectively. In contrast, the average number of voters in the last three presidential generals 12,970,102. That, around 390,000 more than November 2004 and 775,000 fewer than November 2008 is probably a good number to expect if the political climate remains the same.

It's going to be an expensive fight though, likely siphening tens of millions of dollars from the presidential and legislative races, Jerry Brown's tax plan, and possibly a fight against pension reform. It's a complicated issue that requires voter persuasion--turnout won't do it. That means television.

INCHING CLOSER: Sac County reported its random sample of the redistricting referendum yesterday, with 67% validity, and the current random samples are at 68.78%. Lots of new Nooner readers may have missed the numbers I discussed on November 28: To avoid failure, redistricting petitions need 67.6% validity in the random sample. With 78.3% validity, a full count will be avoided.  If a full count occurs, actual validity of 71.2% would be needed. Between 67.6% and 78.3%, each signature will be verified and it could be March before we know whether the referendum qualifies.

OCCUPY SF: The Justin Herman Plaza was cleared in a raid this morning and 70 arrests were made. Now, I can walk from a 2-martini lunch at One Market to the Ferry Building for fine chocolates and ice cream without having to see those unkempt 99%ers. 

OCCUPY ORINDA: Congratulations Steve Glazer, Jerry Brown's political guru, for being named mayor of Orinda last night.

OCCUPY ELSEWHERE: If I have a link to a video, and quote John Burton as saying "It's totally f&*@ed up," and you click on the link and take offense to the Burton's language, don't blame me. Actually, if I ever have a link featuring John Burton, if you can't handle his potty mouth, don't click on it period.

PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: 

STILL DOWN: I'm certainly someone familiar with database crashes, but the Cal-Access situation is reminding me of college. Each night, they update the "down for maintenance page," updating the expected availability one additional day. Sort of the promises I'd make to professors for late papers.

DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS:

  • Retired Marine Nick Popaditch is running for CD53.
  • On the Joe Boscaino poll, my criticism is more about the flaws of having a low turnout mid-January runoff than the polling methodology.

And, we have the headlines...

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Fiscal Conservatives File Spending-cap Proposal
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
A day after Gov. Jerry Brown asked voters for $7 billion in additional taxes, a trio of fiscal conservatives said Tuesday they filed a ballot initiative to cap state spending.

Dan Walters: Jerry Brown's tax plan tries easy political route
sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has formally proposed a $7 billion a year increase in sales and income taxes to close the state's chronic budget deficit.

California Anti-tax Groups File Their Own Ballot Initiative To Curb Spending
Local @
contracostatimes.com
A day after Gov. Jerry Brown filed an initiative to raise taxes, anti-tax groups filed their own ballot measure to curb spending.

Gov. Brown's Tax Hike Initiative Stirs Opponents
Neil Nisperos, Staff Writer @
sbsun.com
Area business leaders and Republican lawmakers are slamming a November ballot proposal by Gov. Jerry Brown to temporarily increase the state sales tax and raise taxes on the wealthy.

Initiative to ban payroll deduction for political spending qualifies
Torey Van Oot @
blogs.sacbee.com
A proposed initiative to block unions and corporations from using automatic payroll deductions for political purposes has made the cut to go in front of voters next November, the secretary of state announced today.

California voters give edge to Jerry Brown's public pension overhaul
sacbee.com
A majority of California voters support Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to dial back public employee pensions and a plurality think that state and local government retirements are "too generous," according to a new Field Poll.

Calbuzz Panel: Brown Must Scuttle Other Tax Plans
calbuzz.com
The only way Gov. Jerry Brown can win approval of his November initiative to raise $7 billion a year over the next five years is if he can convince other forces who are planning to qualify tax measures to drop their proposals and unite behind his. And even then, the odds are about 50-50.

San Jose City Council Votes 6-5 To Place Pension Reform On June Ballot
John Woolfolk @
mercurynews.com
The vote was a political victory for Mayor Chuck Reed, who has been urging a pension reform ballot measure since May but who saw his case for a fiscal emergency to justify benefit cutbacks weakened last week when revised estimates shaved $55 million off next years retirement costs.

Anti-tax groups counter Brown's tax hike measure
JUDY LIN, Associated Press @
signonsandiego.com
Just a day after Gov. Jerry Brown released his tax initiative proposal, anti-tax advocates are filing their own counter measure seeking to restrain government spending.

Initiative seeks new cap to cut state spending
sacbee.com
A day after Gov. Jerry Brown asked voters for $7 billion in additional taxes, three fiscal conservatives Tuesday filed a ballot initiative to cap state spending growth.

San Jose City Council votes 6-5 to place pension reform on June ballot
John Woolfolk @
mercurynews.com
The vote was a political victory for Mayor Chuck Reed, who has been urging a pension reform ballot measure since May but who saw his case for a fiscal emergency to justify benefit cutbacks weakened last week when revised estimates shaved $55 million off of next year's retirement costs.

California fiscal conservatives file spending-cap proposal
Kevin Yamamura @
blogs.sacbee.com
A day after Gov. Jerry Brown asked voters for $7 billion in additional taxes, a trio of fiscal conservatives said today they filed a ballot initiative to cap state spending.

Richmond To Vote On Soda Tax
contracostatimes.com
RICHMOND -- Richmond voters will get a chance to weigh in on a penny-per-ounce soda tax next year.The City Council directed staffers Tuesday to prepare a measure for the November 2012 ballot that would impose a sales tax on "sweetened beverages.

Top Sacramento city managers agree to pay share of their pensions
sacbee.com
With the annual cost of employee pensions rising, top management officials at Sacramento City Hall have agreed to pay the entire employee share of their CalPERS retirement contributions.

Jerry Brown appoints Chester 'Chet' Widom as state architect
David Siders @
blogs.sacbee.com
Gov. Jerry Brown has appointed a Los Angeles architect and former president of the American Institute of Architects to be state architect, the governor's office announced this afternoon.

Alabama's Attorney General: Rewrite The Immigration Law
Tim Mak @
politico.com
Alabama’s attorney general, who is charged with defending the toughest-in-the-nation illegal immigration law now being challenged in federal courts, said in a letter that parts of the law should be scrapped, reports the AP.

Occupy Marchers Decry Major Banks
sacbee.com
Lea Hinchcliff, center, walks with Occupy Sacramento protesters who gathered Tuesday in front of Attorney General Kamala Harris' office, then marched to the Bank of America on Capitol Mall.

Richmond to vote on soda tax
Hannah Dreier @
mercurynews.com
RICHMOND -- Richmond voters will get a chance to weigh in on a penny-per-ounce soda tax next year.The City Council directed staffers Tuesday to prepare a measure for the November 2012 ballot that would impose a sales tax on "sweetened beverages.

Judge Who Became Attorney For California Water District Steps Away From The Job
Local @
insidebayarea.com
Former U.S. District Judge Oliver Wanger raised eyebrows and hackles when he signed on to be a lawyer for the Westlands Water District in a state court lawsuit filed by environmentalists.