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THE NOONER for July 20, 2011

Yes, that stink in the Capitol is real.

Meanwhile, people are now asking whether Arnold Schwarzenegger, via his push for independent redistricting and fundraising for Prop. 11, was the worst thing for the California Republican Party.  In fact, with California's demographics, only through a traditional political redistricting might Republicans have had a shot to maintain their numbers in the Capitol.  Even if the California Republican Party sues and Tani Cantil-Sakauye has to get out her Sharpie, there may be no way to avoid supermajorities in both houses.

Paul Mitchell and Redistricting Partners have run the numbers and categorized the latest of the commission's "visualized" districts based on voter performance.

State Senate

27 Democrat seats
11 Republican seats
2 "swing" seats

  • Riverside/Moreno Valley (Vacant):  53-44% Obama-McCain; 48-43% Brown-Whitman 
  • San Joaquin (Tom Berryhill):  55-41% Obama-McCain; 47-46% Brown-Whitman

 

Democrats are likely to land the coveted two-thirds in the Senate in the next two cycles.  The biggest factor may be the numbering of the districts, which is reportedly being decided by the commission today. Berryhill (and anyone with the name) can likely hold on to that seat. The Riverside/Moreno Valley seat is more interesting.  If the election is next year, it may be almost certainly a Dem seat.  If it's kicked to 2014, Republicans can likely compete for it.

Assembly

54 Democrat seats
24 Republican seats
2 "swing" seats

  • Anaheim/Fullerton (Chris Norby):  50-47% Obama-McCain; 42-50% Brown-Whitman 
  • San Bernardino (Vacant):    52-44% Obama-McCain; 45-45% Brown-Whitman 

 

The Anaheim/Fullerton district is trending Dem and may be by the end of the decade, but will likely stay in the Republican column for awhile.  The San Bernardino district, however, could be the site of a major partisan showdown.  There won't be many opportunities for all out warfare in the Assembly and Senate, but San Berdoo gives political consultants and IE committees some hope.

Anyway, my $0.02 as we await the July 28 "final" maps and the legal soap opera certainly to follow.  I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Dan Walters: Los Angeles County To See A Big Shuffle Under Redistricting - sacbee.com
Los Angeles County has about a quarter of California's residents, but it is generating at least half of the angst associated with redrawing the state's 177 legislative, congressional and Board of Equalization districts.

Vietnamese Concerns Prompt Redistricting Review - Kimberly Edds @ totalbuzz.ocregister.com
Concerns that the Vietnamese-American community’s political influence will be split by Orange County’s redistricting process prompted the Board of Supervisors Tuesday to send the draft plan back to committee.

Fletcher Expands Assembly Staff Amid Campaign - signonsandiego.com
Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, a candidate for San Diego mayor, has added a politically connected public relations adviser to his Capitol team at a cost to taxpayers of $7,084 a month.

New Legislation Seeks To Derail San Francisco Circumcision Vote - Jim Sanders @ blogs.sacbee.com
San Francisco could not ban circumcision of children under new state legislation proposed this month in the Assembly.

Study: Tobacco Money Sways California Politics - ADAM WEINTRAUB @ sanluisobispo.com
The tobacco industry spent $9.3 million over the past two years to fight cigarette taxes, support candidates and influence politics in California, an anti-smoking group said in a report issued Tuesday.

Ex-legislators: Why Go Home? - John Myers @ blogs.kqed.org
One of the essential selling points of California's move toward term limits for legislators two decades ago was that, by serving shorter terms, more citizen legislators would be elected who would do their time in Sacramento and go home. But it's not happening, according to the analysis of a non-partisan think tank.

Senator: High-speed Rail At Political Crossroads - voiceofoc.org
California's proposed high-speed rail project, battered by an uncommonly long series of very critical state audits and analyses, is reaching a political crossroads, says one influential state senator.

Ammiano To Hold Hearing On BART Police - Josh Richman @ ibabuzz.com
Assembly Public Safety Committee Chairman Tom Ammiano announced today that he’ll hold an informational hearing on how the BART Police department is progressing with implementing new civilian oversight and management audit recommendations made last year.

Sacramento County Supervisors Back Sales Tax Increase To Fund Regional Parks - sacbee.com
Sacramento County officials on Tuesday agreed to support a sales tax increase to fund the regional park system.

Local GOP Lawmakers Rake In Tobacco Cash - signonsandiego.com
San Diego County Republican lawmakers reaped a trove of campaign contributions from the tobacco industry during the last election cycle, according to a study released Tuesday by the American Lung Association in California.

Greed drives Amazon and other Web merchants to fight sales tax law - mercurynews.com
It's about time someone put the correct labels on efforts by Amazon.com to avoid paying any semblance of a sales tax in California or anywhere else. Those labels: Greed and fear.

Emmerson Tops In Tobacco Money, Study Shows - Jim Miller @ blogs.pe.com
State Sen. Bill Emmerson was the top recipient of tobacco-industry money in 2009-10, according to a report released Tuesday by the American Lung Association in California.

San Diego Back In The Redevelopment Game - voiceofsandiego.org
City Council votes to pay fees to continue redevelopment the same day backers of the program file a lawsuit with the state Supreme Court.

Budget Cuts To Worsen California Court Delays, Officials Say - Maura Dolan and Victoria Kim @ latimes.com
Extended waits for lawsuits to reach court, longer custody fights and even lengthy battles to challenge traffic citations are predicted. In San Francisco, litigants could wait five years for their cases to be tried.

Redistricting Panel Expects Court Fight After It Delivers Maps - sacbee.com
California's first-ever citizens redistricting commission is bracing for a half-million-dollar court fight over new legislative and congressional districts it hasn't finished drawing yet.

Debt Deal Momentum Builds As House Resists - David Rogers @ politico.com
Rolling the dice on default, the House pushed further to the right in the debt debate Tuesday, even as a fledgling Senate deficit plan raised hopes that some bipartisan consensus may yet emerge from the crisis — if only the nation can get past its Aug. 2 deadline.

California Foreclosure Starts Fall To Lowest Level In Four Years - latimesblogs.latimes.com
The number of Californians entering foreclosure dropped steeply in the second quarter to hit its lowest level since 2007, a sign the foreclosure crisis in the Golden State could be easing amid a more stable housing market and increased scrutiny...

Redding Redevelopment Agency Agrees To Pay Up » Redding Record Searchlight - Scott Mobley @ redding.com
Redding officials grudgingly agreed to hand over $5.9 million to the state so the city’s redevelopment agency may start doing deals again.

NFL Stadium And Convention Center Project Would Boost Tax Revenue, Studies Find - David Zahniser @ latimes.com
Studies for developer AEG find that expanding the Convention Center and building a new sports facility would generate $41 million in taxes annually and increase convention bookings.

Nyc Mayor To Silicon Valley: We Will Defeat You - Samantha Gross Associated Press @ contracostatimes.com
Michael Bloomberg fired a shot across the bow of Silicon Valley, saying New York Citys efforts to attract a new science and engineering campus will help the metropolis surpass the California region as the world capital of technology startups

State Term-limit Law Should Be Changed, Says Public Policy Group - Patrick McGreevy @ latimesblogs.latimes.com
California’s strict term-limit law has failed to force most state lawmakers from public office and back to private-sector jobs in their districts, as many voters hoped it would, according to a study released Tuesday by a Los Angeles policy group that promotes effective government.

Diversity Push Triggers New Election Maps For School District - californiawatch.org
Although Hispanics make up 53 percent of its student population, the Vista Unified School District in San Diego County hasn't had a Hispanic school board member in decades. That's a fact current board President Steve Lilly concedes needs to change.