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The Nooner for Thursday, June 4, 2020, presented by SYASL Partners

  • State Budget
  • Poll position
  • Sacramento curfew
  • ACA 5: Affirmative action
  • Cakeday and classifieds

Good morning! I won't be writing about the protests today because I have plenty of other content and you're likely reading about them in your community.

STATE BUDGET: Yesterday, Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D-Lakewood) announced an agreement by Democrats in both houses on a budget plan that is significantly different from Governor Gavin Newsom's May Revision.

Here is the joint press release from Atkins and Rendon.

I just saw the legislative budget plan when I got up at 5am, so I don't have time fo fully analyze it in comparison with the May Revision before the 11am PPIC webinar. The plan assumes federal funds that, if not received by September 1, trigger solutions would take effect October 1.

The solutions are a combination of cuts, deferrals, and mostly maximum withdrawals from the state's three major reserve accounts. It rejects the K-12 and community college general funding budget cuts and many in health and human services, even if federal funds don't materialize.

The legislative plan further rejects the proposed suspension of state employee increases and 10% pay cut for next year, deferring both items to collective bargaining.

The team at the Bee reports:

It rejects about $14 billion in cuts Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed last month, in large part by relying on expected aid money that Congress has yet to pass.

The legislative plan proposes spending more from reserves, borrowing more money from internal accounts and delaying spending reductions until later this year. It’s similar to a plan the Senate Budget Committee passed last week.

...

“With today’s progress in the Legislature, we’ll continue our discussions to achieve an on-time agreement that balances the budget, reduces the structural deficit, sets the stage for recovery, and advances our efforts for federal support to maintain core services,” said H.D. Palmer, spokesman for Newsom’s Finance Department.

On Monday, Newsom declined to weigh in on the Senate’s proposal, but said his office was negotiating collaboratively with both houses of the Legislature. He said he’s confident they’ll reach a deal ahead of the deadline.

“All I can say is I appreciate the collaborative spirit,” he said. “I appreciate the work that the Senate is doing, the support that the Assembly is giving to this process. We continue to have very robust and very positive conversations.”

This will be very interesting. The Legislature and Governor Newsom have strikingly different budget plans. There are 11 days before the constitutional deadline for the Legislature to pass a budget. However a bill needs to be in print 72 hours before that. However, the governor can request a bill under the state of emergency dispensing with that requirement and I don't think the budget bill is excluded (it is not explicitly excluded by Article IV, Section 8(b)(2). This will be a fascinating several days ahead...

POLL POSITION: The Public Policy Institute of California is out with results from its May survey of 1,706 California adults [MOE ±3.5%], including 1,408 likely voters [MOE ±4.6%]. There is an 11am online presentation, so I will likely have more on this tomorrow, but I'll offer some takeaways this morning.

Quick thoughts: There is a lot more to unpack from the crosstabs, but here are some quick data before today's PPIC presentation.

  • The top 5 responses to the open-ended question of what is the most important issue facing Californians today, they are COVID-19/coronavirus (36%), jobs/economy (23%), health care/health insurance (6%), housing costs/availability (6%), and homelessness (5%).
  • Governor Newsom has seen a spike in his approval rating, which at 64% among likely voters now exceeds Jerry Brown's high-water mark of 62%. This of course is largely the phenomenon of rallying around the leader during a crisis. On coronavirus response, Newsom is at 69%/28%, and on jobs and the economy, he is at 57%/35%.
  • That said, there is not a rallying around President Trump among California likely voters, who at 33% approval is at a two-year low and the third lowest of his presidency registered in the survey. Among likely votes, 34% approve of the President's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.
  • On the right direction/wrong direction question, among all adults, 58% say that California is heading in the right direction, while 37% say it's heading in the wrong direction. The poll was conducted May 17-26, two months in to the stay at home orders, which I find remarkable.

    However, only 23% of adults (20% of likely voters) believe that the United States will experience good economic times over the next 12 months. It was last 20% in September 2011 and was last lower at 17% in January 2009.
  • On the state budget condition, 46% believe it is a big problem and 38% believe it is somewhat of a problem. Among adults, voters are split over Governor Newsom's May Revision after given a short description -- 43% are both in favor and opposed.
  • Presidential race: Joe Biden (57%), Donald Trump (33%), someone else (4%), would not vote for President (2%), don't know (4%) - likely voters
  • In competitive congressional districts, 44% say they will vote Republican or are leaning voting Republican, while 52% say they will vote Democratic or are leaning voting Democratic. Statewide, 6% of both registered Democrats and Republicans express an intent or are leaning crossing over to vote for the other party.
  • 24% of adults are very concerned and 34% are somewhat concerned that they will get the coronavirus and require hospitalization.
  • On Governor Newsom's plan to send VBM ballots to all voters in November because of COVID-19, 73% of likely voters say it's a good idea, while 24% say it's a bad idea.
  • On restrictions on public activity due to the coronavirus, 25% say more restrictions are needed right now, 28% say fewer restrictions are needed, and 46% say about the same number of restrictions.
  • 58% of adults are concerned that state governments will lift restrictions too quickly, while 38% are concerned that they will not be lifted quickly enough.
  • 35% of adults say they have been laid off because of the coronavirus, 51% answered that they have had their hours reduced or pay cut, and 27% report having experienced difficulty in paying their mortgage or rent. However, KQED's Scott Shafer reports that black and Latino residents are feeling the greatest impact:
    Thirty-five percent of all adults say they or someone in their household have been laid off or lost their job, but that number rises to 49% among Latinos versus 24% of whites.

    Similarly, while 51% of all adults report reduced work hours or a pay cut since the pandemic began 66% of Latinos say that along with 60% of African Americans, compared with 39% of whites.

    The trend is similar among those asked whether they're having difficulty paying their rent or mortgage, with 44% of Latinos saying yes compared with 21% of Asian Americans and 15% of whites.
  • Among adults, 46% believe the worst of the coronavirus outbreak is behind us, while 48% believe the worst is yet to come
  • 55% of likely voters favor a national health plan/Medicare-for-All, while 42% oppose such a plan.
  • Among adults, 32% believe tax increases should be included in the governor's budget plan, while 60% do not. Among likely voters, 34% believe they should be, while 60% do not. Not a single political or demographic group answered that yes there should be tax increases. That's not good news for state and local ballot measures seeking to raise revenue on the November ballot. However, it may also believe that there is latent concerns about Sacramento's budget management, and local measures that tie to local services could be different.

Here are the time trends for the job approval of Governor Newsom and the Legislature (click for larger).

Newsom job approval Legislature job approval

 

...more after the jump.

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California Bankers Association

SACRAMENTO CURFEW: While many cities including San Francisco are lifting their curfews, as of yesterday, the City of Sacramento stated that a curfew is expected to last through the weekend, although that could obviously change.

ACA 5: AFFIRMATIVE ACTION: As expected, the proposed constitutional amendment to change Prop. 209 prohibitions against affirmative action passed out of Assembly Appropriations yesterday. If it receives two-thirds votes in both houses, it would be placed on the November 3 ballot. It was approved on a partisan vote with Ed Chau (D-Monterey Park) and Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-Laguna Beach) not voting. While Democrats more than two thirds of each chamber, it could be close with members in close districts (Petrie-Norris) and Asian-Americans (Chau) being unwilling to put up votes.

The concerns of some Asian-Americans about affirmative action are not new as they feel that they will lose out spots in competitive California public universities.

cakeday and classifieds after the jump...

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CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Heidi Hall, Rick Ladd, and Frank Russo!

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Member: Salud Carbajal (D)

Voter registration as of October 1, 2019:
Democrat: 39.6%,  Republican: 29.0%,  No Party Preference: 25.2%

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