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Competitiveness Rankings

Objective/subjective ranking of competitiveness, unrelated to partisan outcome

U.S. House of Representatives

  1. CA39 (Fullerton): Gil Cisneros (D) v. Young Kim (R) -- Toss-up
  2. CA48 (Huntington Beach): *Dana Rohrabacher (R) v. Harley Rouda (D) -- Toss-up
  3. CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): Katie Hill (D) v. *Steve Knight (R) -- Leans Democrat
  4. CA45 (Irvine): *Mimi Walters (R) v. Katie Porter (D) -- Leans Democrat
  5. CA10 (Stanislaus): *Jeff Denham (R) v. Josh Harder (D) -- Leans Democrat
  6. CA21 (Kings): TJ Cox (D) v. *David Valadao (R) -- Leans Republican
  7. CA49 (Oceanside): Diane Harkey (R) v. Mike Levin (D) -- Likely Democrat
  8. CA22 (Tulare): Andrew Janz (D) v. *Devin Nunes -- Leans Republican
  9. CA04 (Foothills): *Tom McClintock (R) v. Jessica Morse (D) -- Leans Republican
  10. CA07 (South/East Sacramento County): *Ami Bera (D) v. Andrew Grant (R) -- Likely Democrat

State Senate

  1. SD12 (Salinas-Modesto): Anna Caballero (D) v. Rob Poythress (R) -- Likely Democrat -- This is the center of hope for Democrats to reclaim the supermajority; VR is Dem: 45.1%, Rep: 26.7%, NPP: 24.1%; since 2014: D+0.1, Rep-5.1, NPP+5.1; female Dem v. male Rep; both sides with plenty of resources.

  2. SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): Mike Eng (D) v. Susan Rubio (D) -- Safe Democrat -- battle between labor for Eng and business and charters for Rubio; Ed Hernandez seat

  3. SD14 (Frensno/Bakersfield): Melissa Hurtado (D) v. *Andy Vidak (R) -- Leans Republican -- along with CA21 and AD32, the perennial area of frustration for Dems; Dem: 44.9%, Rep: 26.2%, NPP: 25.0%; district goes Dem statewide, but flips down ballot; will that change with a female Dem against a male Rep in this particular cycle?

  4. SD34 (Westminster/Santa Ana): *Janet Nguyen (R) v. Tom Umberg (D) -- Dem: 39.3%, Reps: 29.8%, NPP: 26.8%; Reps-4.95% since 2014; Umberg name rec; CA48 overlap in Seal Beach, Fountain Valley

  5. SD36 (Oceanside): *Pat Bates (R) v. Marggie Castellano (D) -- Dem: 29.9%, Rep: 38.1%, NPP: 27% -- Bates should be fine, but CA49 overlap w/ Levin strongly favored and the Dem v. Dem race in the AD77 in the southern half of the SD will drive turnout and will favor Castellabo; while Bates opposes offshore drilling, Pres. Trump's suggestion of expanded offshore drilling appears to be pushing owners of expensive ocean-view houses against the GOP (based on CA49 polling)

  6. SD32 (Whittier): Bob Archuleta (D) v. Rita Topalian (R) -- Likely Democrat -- without the Tony Mendoza resignation and the Cristina Garcia (overlapping district) allegations, this certainly wouldn't be in the rankings; both sides are spending here, and it's one district where a GOP female picks up points against a male Democrat; VR of Dem+26.7, however, should provide plenty of buffer for Dems

  7. SD24 (East Los Angeles): Maria Elena Durazo (D) v. Peter Choi (D) -- Durazo, the longtime exec. secty/treas of the LA County Labor Fed should have no problem succeeding Kevin de León in this seat

  8. SD08 (Foothills): Shannon Grove (R) v. Pauline Miranda (D) -- Safe Republican -- 'nuff said

State Assembly

  1. AD38 (Santa Clarita): *Dante Acosta (R) v. Christy Smith (D) -- Toss-up -- overlap with CA25 (Knight) moves this from Leans Rep to Toss-up; both races are female Dem v. male Rep; Dem: 34.6%, Rep: 34.7%, NPP: 25.6%; since 2014, D+0.8, R-4.2, N+3.7; Smith has $$$ advantage, but party money equalizes; race is about Dem turnout and NPP tilt, which largely depends on the congressional race

  2. AD32 (Kings): Justin Mendes (R) v. *Rudy Salas (D) -- Leans Democrat -- defense #1 for Democrats; like CA21 & SD14, strong D registration but poor performance down ballot; VR: Dem: 36.3%, Rep: 25.3%, NPP: 24.7%; since 2014, D-5.25, R-2.9; N+10.65!!!; overlap with CA21 & SD14, this one will likely be among the closest

  3. AD60 (Corona): *Sabrina Cervantes (D) v. Bill Essayli (R) -- Leans Democrat -- VR: Dem: 40.1%, Rep: 31.8%, NPP: 23.9; since 2014, D+5.4, R-7.9, N+3.3; female Dem v. male Rep; Latina Dem; Cervantes w/ 2:1 cash advantage; $$$ by both parties

  4. AD15 (Berkeley): Jovanka Beckles (D) v. Buffy Wicks (D) -- Safe Democrat -- one of the "traditional"-Wicks v. "Berniecrat"-Beckles races; Tony Thurmond's seat; Wicks has significant $$$ advantage; Beckles strong grassroots and enviro support

  5. AD66 (Torrance): *Al Muratsuchi (D) v. Frank Scotto (R) -- Leans Democrat -- VR: Dem: 48.1%, Rep: 28.95%, NPP: 26.6%; since 2014, D-.3, R-3.6, N+4.2; district has switched between D and R last 3 elections, w/ Muratsuchi win in 2012 and 2016; Muratsuchi & Dem party w/ large cash advantage

  6. AD72 (Seal Beach): Tyler Diep (R) v. Josh Lowenthal (R) -- Toss-up -- VR: Dem: 32.4%, Rep: 36.2%, NPP: 27.3%; since 2014, D+0.9, R-5.2, N+4.6; overlap w/ CA48 (Rohrabacher); Lowenthal family name; division w/in Vietnamese community

  7. AD74 (Irvine): *Matthew Harper (R) v. Cottie Petrie-Norris (D) -- Toss-up -- VR: Dem: 30.7%, Rep: 39.2%, NPP: 27.8%; since 2014: D+1.8, R-4.4, N+3.1; baseline is likely Rep; poor fundraising by Harper; Petrie-Norris had 4:1 cash advantage as of 9/22; overlapped by both CA45 (Walters) and CA48 (Rohrabacher); UC Irvine in district, with a UCI female law prof running as Dem in CA35 in Kavanaugh aftermath; AD74 is female Dem v. male Rep

  8. AD16 (Tri-Valley): *Catharine Baker (R) v. Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D) -- Leans Republican -- VR: Dem: 40.6%, Rep: 27%, NPP: 28.2%; since 2014, D+1.2, R-5, N+6; reliably independent area; Baker has followed that mold in ASM, $$$ as of 9/22: Baker=$1m, Bauer-Kahan=$500k

  9. AD55 (Yorba Linda): *Phillip Chen (R) v. Gregg Fritchle (D) -- Leans Republican -- VR: Dem: 32.1%, Rep: 35.2%, NPP: 28.8%; since 2014, D+1, R-4.1, N+3.45; only makes ranking because of CA39 (open-Royce) overlap

  10. AD77 (North San Diego): Sunday Gover (D) v. *Brian Maienschein (R) -- Leans Republican -- VR: Dem: 31.9%, Rep: 31.9%, NPP 31.5%; no that's not a typo; since 2014, D+1.95, R-4.8, NPP+2.9; female Dem v. male Rep; Maienschein has strong cross-over appeal

  11. AD40 (Redlands): Henry Nickel v. James Ramos (D) -- Likely Democrat -- VR: Dem: 41.2%, Rep: 30.8%, NPP: 23.2%; since 2014, D+4.2, R-6.2, N+2.2; Latino Dem; Ramos elected SB supe (bigger geo), Nickel councilmember; $$$: Ramos:3:1 as of Sept 22, with plenty of IE support; Ramos former tribal chairman of San Manuel

  12. AD76 (Oceanside): Tasha Boerner Horvath (D) v. Elizabeth Warren (D) -- "traditional"-Horvath v. "Berniecrat"-Warren race; would be a partisan competition, but Reps had too many candidates in top-two primary; Rocky Chávez seat--look for him to be back in two years; for 2018, Horvath is strongly favored; overlap w/ CA49 (open-Issa)

  13. AD30 (East Monterey): Robert Rivas (D) v. Neil Kitchens (R) -- Safe Democrat -- VR: Dem: 50.1%, Rep: 20.6%, NPP: 25.6%; Caballero seat will remain very safe for the Dems