Congressional District 26
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All Districts > CD26: Ventura Co
[incumbent: Julia Brownley (D) - term limit: none]

Probable Candidates - 2014

District Projection: Leans Democrat | ATC Partisan Index = 51.9 D
  • Rafael Alberto Dagnesses (Republican) - Business Owner/Entreprenuer
    www.rafaelforcongress.com  
  • (i) Julia Brownley (Democratic) - Ventura County Congresswoman
    www.juliabrownley.com  
  • Douglas William Kmiec (No Party Preference) - Professor/Author/Diplomat
    www.kmieccongress2014.weekly.com  
  • Jeff Gorell (Republican) - Legislator/Naval Officer
    www.jeffgorell.org  
  • (i) = incumbent

    Until the filing period closes, candidates who have made gestures to a run are included. Some of these may not run, while others are likely to jump in.

    2012 Presidential Race

    • Barack Obama (D) 54.0%
    • Mitt Romney (R) 43.7%

    2010 Gubernatorial Race

    • Jerry Brown (D) 46.0%
    • Meg Whitman (R) 47.0%

    District Map

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    District Voter Registration

    Analysis

    After Howard "Buck" McKeon announced his retirement in the adjacent CD25, Tony Strickland switched from a rematch against first-term Congresswoman Julia Brownley for the "safer" Republican seat next door. Taking his place is Assemblymember Jeff Gorell, who likely provides a more significant challenge to Brownley.

    Gorell is a second-term Assemblymember whose service in Sacramento has been interrupted by service in Afghanistan. Among legislators in Sacramento, he is well liked and seen to be a moderate, reflecting the district he represents.

    Brownley and Gorell should have little problem emerging in the top two in June. This race will then become one of the top battlegrounds in the country. Using the AroundTheCapitol.com partisan index for this November, the seat has the smallest Democratic margin (51.9 D).

    In Brownley's favor, the House is held by Republicans and she will earn little blame for what does or does not happen in Congress this year. On the other hand, she c . . .

    More Analysis

    Fundraising

    Reported Fundraising
    (Total for this cycle)
    CandidateContributionsExpendituresCash on HandDebtFiling Period Close
    Brownley, Julia$1,492,144$343,862$1,194,784$5,0003/31/14
    Dagnesses, Rafael$49,100$40,091$24,009$28,3943/31/14
    Gorell, Jeff$345,543$95,272$255,472$27,4693/31/14
     
    Source: Federal Elections Commission

    2012 General Results

    November 6 General Election Results
    Final Results
    CandidateVotesPercentPrecincts Reporting
    Julia Brownley (D)139,07252.7%546 of 546
    Tony Strickland (R)124,86347.3%546 of 546

    County Breakdown | Vote Count Tracker
    Source: California Secretary of State

    2012 Primary Results

    June 5 Primary Election Results
    Final Results
    CandidateVotesPercentPrecincts Reporting
    Tony Strickland (R)49,04344.1%491 of 491
    Julia Brownley (D)29,89226.9%491 of 491
    Linda Parks (N)20,30118.3%491 of 491
    Jess Herrera (D)7,2446.5%491 of 491
    David Cruz Thayne (D)2,8092.5%491 of 491
    Albert Maxwell Goldberg (D)1,8801.7%491 of 491

    County Breakdown
    Source: California Secretary of State

    Demographics

    2010 Census Demographics for CD26
     AsianBlackLatino
    Citizen Voting-Age Population 6.3% 2.3% 26.2%
    Total Population 6.4% 1.9% 43.2%

    The Bench (likely future candidates)

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