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California Elections: Congressional District 21

Congressional District 21 -- NRCC target

All Districts > CD21: Coalinga-Lemoore-South Bakersfield
[incumbent: TJ Cox Directory Page]

Probable Candidates: 2020

District Projection: Leans Republican
  • David G. Valadao (Republican) - Farmer
    www.valadaoforcongress.com/  
  • (i) TJ Cox (Democratic) - Congressman/Engineer
    www.tjcoxforcongress.com/  
  • Ricardo De La Fuente ( (Democratic) - ) - President/CEO
    www.ricardoforcongress.com/  
  • Roque "Roque" De La Fuente ( (Republican) - ) - President/CEO/Businessman
    www.rocky2020.com/  
  • (i) = incumbent

    Until the filing period closes, candidates who have made gestures to a run are included. Some of these may not run, while others are likely to jump in.

    Analysis

    Following a finish that was the closest of California's 52 congressional races at 0.78%, it appea . . .

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    District Geography

    Counties: Fresno (32.5%), Kern (41.6%), Kings (22.8%), Tulare (3.1%) of 230,632 registered voters.
     

    2018 Gubernatorial Race

    • Gavin Newsom (D) 52.1%
    • John Cox (R) 47.9%

    2016 Presidential Race

    • Hillary Clinton (D) 55.2%
    • Donald Trump (R) 39.7%

    2014 Gubernatorial Race

    • Edmund G. ("Jerry") Brown, Jr. (D) 52.4%
    • Neel Kashkari (R) 47.6%

    2012 Presidential Race

    • Barack Obama (D) 54.6%
    • Mitt Romney (R) 43.5%

    Demographics

    2010 Census Demographics for CD21
     AsianBlackLatino
    Citizen Voting-Age Population 4.0% 7.7% 49.3%
    Total Population 3.5% 4.9% 71.0%

    The Bench (likely future candidates)