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California Elections: Congressional District 16

Congressional District 16

All Districts > CD16: Merced
[incumbent: Jim Costa Directory Page]

Probable Candidates: 2020

District Projection: Likely Democratic
  • Kevin Cookingham (Republican) - Real estate agent
    www.cookinghamforcongress.com  
  • Esmeralda Soria (Democratic) - Councilmember, Fresno
    esmeraldasoria.com  
  • (i) Jim Costa (Democratic) - Member of Congress
    www.jimcosta.com  
  • Kim Williams (Democratic) - College Professor
    www.kimwilliamsforcongress.com  
  • (i) = incumbent

    Until the filing period closes, candidates who have made gestures to a run are included. Some of these may not run, while others are likely to jump in.

    Analysis

    While Congressman Jim Costa (D) has sat pretty comfortably through the decade since redistricting (and after a scare from Johnny Tacherra in 2014), things appear to be different in 2020. The district has likely grown more diverse and more progressive as the younger Latino population turns 18 and is showing promises of higher turnout, largely reflected in 2018. This also was likely the tipping point in Subscriber Log-in | Learn about subscriptions.

     

    District Geography

    Counties: Fresno (50.1%), Madera (14.7%), Merced (35.3%) of 276,807 registered voters.
     

    2016 Presidential Race

    • Hillary Clinton (D) 58.0%
    • Donald Trump (R) 36.4%

    2014 Gubernatorial Race

    • Edmund G. ("Jerry") Brown, Jr. (D) 54.4%
    • Neel Kashkari (R) 45.6%

    2012 Presidential Race

    • Barack Obama (D) 58.6%
    • Mitt Romney (R) 39.4%

    Demographics

    2010 Census Demographics for CD16
     AsianBlackLatino
    Citizen Voting-Age Population 6.2% 8.0% 40.7%
    Total Population 8.7% 6.4% 58.0%

    The Bench (likely future candidates)