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The Nooner for April 23rd

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • GOV: moved from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat (based on recent polling, which indicates that Republican John Cox could advance to November)

REMINDER: My regular email address is caught in DNS hell between my server and Google. Email me at scottlay@gmail.com.

Cray-cray morning. I'm sure I am missing a lot. But, a half-hour of writing time was watching the White House Press Briefing and hearing Sarah Huckabee Sanders say to three different reporters that she didn't know what President Trump's tweet about the "breeding concept" in California meant, other than that it's a "huge problem" here. Mmmmkay...

RED ALERT: Today marks two weeks before the beginning of the mailing of vote-by-mail ballots. I currently predict that 75-80% of June 5 ballots will be VBM (it was 69.4% in June 2014). Several counties, including Sacramento, are mailing ballots to every registered voter and allowing in-person voting at limited locations. Those ballots will be treated as provisional to ensure that a VBM does not also arrive. Basically, almost all elections will be decided well before election day. 

This is the crunch time for persuasion and GOTV starts May 7. Very different than the world most of us grew up in. Absentees used to be considered reliable and often already decided voters. That game has completely changed. Of course, smart campaigns use services like PDI to know the voting history of each voter, which is really the only way to know who is a historic absentee v . . .

[full Nooner]

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